comment Lai
Ching-te, Taiwan's president
(Lai Ching-te takes up the mantle from his DPP predecessor
Tsai Ing-wen since May 20, 2024.)
Retrocession Day (Oct. 25)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrocession_Day#:~:text=Retrocession%20Day%20is%20the%20annual,China%20on%2025%20October%201945.
◆ Reuters (UK) ,
2024-10-25
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said no "external force" can change our
future, visiting sensitive frontline islands Kinmen for the 75th
anniversary of a key victory over communist forces. The Kinmen battle
(1949-10-25) was a rare victory for (KMT) Chiang Kai-shek's forces in
the final days of China's civil war.
◆ Global Times, 2024-10-26
Mainland (China) slams DPP for silence on anniversary (Retrocession
Day at 1945-10-25) of Taiwan recovery from Japanese occupation.
"It
is hoped that the majority of Taiwan compatriots will remember the
history of Taiwan's martyrs' resistance to the Japanese invasion".
Lai Ching-te said that the Battle of Guningtou (Kinmen)
in October 25, 1949 represents determination to protect "our country"
which analysts viewed as yet another provocative move following his
secessionist "Double Ten" speech on October 10.
◆ United
States Institute of Peace, 2024-10-24:Lai may have been attempting to lower the temperature after a
series of earlier provocative remarks that stoked Beijing's ire.
China's bellicose response to his more moderate
remarks may lead Lai to believe there is nothing he can do to lower the
temperature.
◆ The
Hill, 2024-10-25:The
inauguration in May of Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te has only
escalated tensions; he is pro-U.S. ◆ NY
Times, 2024-10-22:
The frequency of the exercises suggests that China is stepping up its
intimidation efforts: The Chinese military has held two such large-scale
exercises since Mr.
Lai took office in May, the same number that it held over the
previous eight years.◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2024-10-17:
Chinese officials described the encirclement drill as a “firm and mighty
punishment” after Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te said it is “absolutely
impossible” for China to be the “motherland” of Taiwan. On Taiwan's
National Day Mr. Lai vowed to “resist annexation or encroachment upon
our sovereignty.”◆ AFP, 2024-10-17:
China toughens Taiwan stance over president's sovereignty defence.
China warned after the speech that Lai's "provocations" would result in
"disaster" for the people of Taiwan. "One very big difference between Tsai and Lai is that in
Beijing's consideration, Tsai might be more moderate, in the middle of the
spectrum of unification and independence", Taiwan's expert said.
◆ New
York Times, 2024-10-16:
China's drills were aimed at demonstrating its
potential to choke Taiwan's access to food and fuel and block the skies
and waters from which the United States and its allies would presumably
approach in coming to the island's defense.
“China continues to press up against the contiguous zone
so these activities are coming closer and closer to Taiwan shores,” said
David Sacks ◆ Le
monde, 2024-10-15: China steps up pressure on
Taiwan as military drills prepare for potential invasion. Making Taiwanese fighters modernization
is an acute necessity. ◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2024-10-17:
Mainland officials depict President Lai Ching-te as an advocate for Taiwan's
independence—a red line for Beijing. Lai says he is committed to preserving the
status quo.
What
did China comment Taiwan's National Day speech
Reuters (2024-10-13): Taiwan's security was continuing to watch Chinese media
comments about Taiwan president Lai's national day speech.
◆ New
York Times (US) ,
2024-10-13
Beijing
accused the self-governing island's president of promoting independence
in a National Day address. Lai's remarks were an attempt to
“sever the historical connections between the two sides.” Mr. Lai was
“heightening tensions in the Taiwan Strait for his selfish political
interest”nytimes.com/2024/10/13/world/asia/china-taiwan-war-games.html?ysclid=m28fat62dp684342561
◆ Reuters (UK), 2024-10-14
China starts new round of war games near Taiwan, offers no end
date. "The drill also serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of
Taiwan independence forces. It is a legitimate and necessary operation
for safeguarding state sovereignty and national unity"
◆
Xinhua,
2024-10-14
China's "Joint Sword-2024B" drills are a powerful deterrent to the
separatist activities of "Taiwan independence" elements
◆
Global Times,
2024-10-13
Some Western media referred to Lai's speech as "softer" than his
recent speeches. However, Lai's speech is‘a poison pill
wrapped in cellophane’. It
is evident that Lai is not merely talking about "Taiwan independence" —
he is actively taking steps to promote it.
The "ROC" Lai refers to is a
"Taiwanized ROC" which is fundamentally distinct from the ROC
advocated by the Kuomintang (KMT) - encompasses the mainland.
Lai's changes are merely tactical adjustments. The core and essence
remained unchanged: promoting "Taiwan independence" has not changed; the
confrontational stance toward the mainland has not changed; the
narrative of playing the "democracy and freedom" card has not changed;
the methods of colluding with external forces have not changed; the
tactic of blaming the mainland for the deterioration of cross-Straits
relations has not changed; and the hyping of the "China threat" rhetoric
has not changed. By emphasizing mutual non-subordination,
Lai is attempting to legitimize "Taiwan separatism"...
◆
Global Times,
2024-10-12
Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te's speech was steeped in
hypocrisy. “Our efforts to maintain the status quo of peace
and stability in the Taiwan Strait remain unchanged.” This is a prime
example of a thief crying "stop thief." Unlike the approaches of
the past, Lai is now adopting a more radical and overt strategy,
Lai's boldness is largely due to his delusion that the Chinese mainland
won't take action for reunification.
Lai's other misconception is that the US will undoubtedly defend Taiwan.
◆
China Daily,
2024-10-12
Lai Ching-te - repackaging his new "two states" theory and
deliberately provoking the mainland. Lai has already surpassed
his predecessors including Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian
and Tsai Ing-wen on the path of "Taiwan independence."
◆
Global Times,
2024-10-11
Lai Ching-te proclaims himself ‘pragmatic Taiwan independence
worker,’ but in fact he is a ‘pragmatic war instigator’.
Lai's stubborn promotion of the new "two states" theory has
severely escalated tensions
◆
Global Times,
2024-10-10
Lai wrongly believes that as the mainland has to tackle its internal
issues such as economic challenges, it will tolerate his "Taiwan
independence" rhetoric and deeds in order to achieve its economic
growth goals and maintain social stability. However, notably, even
when the mainland was not yet powerful, it didn't hesitate to
contain "Taiwan independence" and safeguard the prospects for
reunification, let alone now that China is currently the second
largest economy in the world with comprehensive strengths.
The US treats the island merely as a lever to counter the Chinese
mainland. This approach risks turning the island into cannon fodder
if a conflict really breaks out in the Taiwan Straits.
Taiwan's
president in first National Day speech
◆ Financial Times ,
2024-10-10
Taiwan's president calls on China to ‘live up to’
duty to protect peace. China accused Lai of “deliberately severing
the historical connection” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait;
and
has threatened to annex it with military
force if Taipei indefinitely resists its control. China has not previously
responded to a Taiwan president's national address with military moves
Lai Ching-te says Beijing has no
right to represent Taiwan.
◆
Washington Examiner
,
2024-10-11
Lai Ching-te declared “On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and
thriving...
" . These are fine words. Unfortunately, words can't shoot down missiles.
In that regard, Taiwan has a big problem. a 2.5% of GDP defense
budget is a sad joke. Taiwanese reserve forces lack adequate
training and readiness, and its military procurement remains too reliant on
platforms that lack agility and survivability......
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-10
China said Lai was a stubborn adherent of Taiwan
independence, full of confrontational thinking, "constantly provoking troubles
and deliberately aggravating cross-strait tensions". "Lai Ching-te has made
every effort to piece together the grounds for secession"
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-12
China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after
denouncing president's speech
◆
Bloomberg
,
2024-10-11
Lai reiterated that that neither side of the strait separating the
two sides was “subordinate to each other.” Beijing criticized for sending “a dangerous
signal of seeking independence.”... his speech showed “he is hell-bent on Taiwan
independence and has the ill intention of heightening tensions in the Taiwan
Strait for his political, selfish interest.
◆
AFP
,
2024-10-10
China warned after the speech that Lai's "provocations"
would result in "disaster" for the people of Taiwan.
◆
EuroNews
,
2024-10-10
Taiwan celebrated its National Day amid rising tensions with China
◆
Reuters, 2024-10-5: It is "impossible" for the People's Republic
of China to become Taiwan's motherland, the island's President Lai Ching-te
said ◆
Economist
2024-10-3:
Chinese authorities call Lai Ching-te a stubborn, confrontational
“separatist” who may provoke war in the Taiwan Strait. But since Mr Lai's election,
PLA has been raising the chances of conflict by deploying more air and
naval craft around Taiwan.Few people in Taiwan are aware of how close and regular the PLA
patrols are... too much disclosure would damage Taiwan’s public morale
or economy ◆ GIS Report,
2024-9-30:
Lai Ching-te seems to be a much calmer character than former President
Chen, although he does not yet demonstrate the elegance of Tsai Ing-wen.In
terms of soft tactics, he still has a lot to improve.Lai Ching-te's hard approach is reflected in his
conclusion that China had misinterpreted United Nations General Assembly
Resolution 2758 ◆ National Interest,
2024-9-28: Taiwan is
at the center of the rising battle between the oldest modern democracy
in the world, the United States, and China.
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei increased as a result of last January's presidential
elections in the island that put into power the Democratic Progressive
Party candidate,Lai Ching-te,
who ran on a platform inimical to the interests of Beijing
◆ Crisis Group,
2024-9-26: The Widening Schism across the Taiwan Strait
/
Beijing finds the Lai administration's cross-strait posture provocative
and will escalate its already heightened pressure campaign to challenge
Taiwan's de facto sovereignty. Taipei
should return to more measured, cautious public characterisations of its
status and relationship to China ◆ Brookings,
2024-9-25: The Lai Ching-te administration does not believe Beijing's
strategic appetite for absorbing Taiwan can be sated through dialogue,
reassurance, or deeper economic integration To make progress in
advancing grand strategy, the Lai administration will need to overcome
deepening domestic political divides as well as challenges to Taiwan's
well-being, such as limits on energy supply and demographic headwinds. ◆Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-9-26:
International Crisis Group
advises
Taiwan's new president
(Lai) should adopt a less muscular posture
toward China, even if doing so is unlikely to soften Beijing's own
hawkish◆ War On The Rocks (2024-9-20): Washington is quietly watching how
Taiwan's new president Lai consolidates power using the court to prosecute former vice premier Cheng
Wen-tsan over corruption allegations. The arrest and detention of TPP
chair Ko Wen-je on corruption
charges have Lai's critics protesting that he is using the judiciary to
persecute rivals. Washington observers might worry that Lai is undermining
the independence of the judicial system
◆ Financial
Times,
2024-9-19:China's People's Liberation Army has ratcheted up patrols and
drills near Taiwan to unprecedented levels since President Lai Ching-te
took office，The scale of
activity is getting larger and larger, and so it is harder to discern
when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and
from an exercise to war.
What Lai Ching-te said
Lai said(via video) during the annual Concordia Summit in New York,
etc and his four-pillar plan
- brief
♦ (1)
national defense as a means of achieving peace
♦ (2) Taiwan's
solidarity with the alliance of democracies is essential to
jointly deter authoritarianism (China)
♦ (3) Taiwan
‘absolutely will not sign’ an agreement with Beijing implying that the
nation is part of China
United Daily 2024-9-25和民主陣營站在一起，共同發揮威懾力量，以備戰達到避戰，並強調絕不會簽署和平協定。
udn.com/news/story/6656/8249058?from=udn_ch2cate6638sub6656_pulldownmenu_v2
what Lai did
Lai
wants to rely
on the United States to protect it
♦ (1)
Financial Times 9-19: Lai's
national defence spending for 2025 marks a slight
drop in terms of GDP, from 2.5 per cent this year to 2.45 per cent.
(by contrast, Israel 6% ) GIS Report, 2024-9-30:
even to 3 percent of GDP is unlikely to satisfy U.S.
expectations under a Trump administration. ♦
(2) Washington Post, 2024-8-4: Young
Taiwanese are not answering the call. Only 6 percent of eligible
conscripts — 6,936 people — took part in the newly implemented 12-month
program this year. Taiwanese
men who completed mandatory service within the last 12 years are
theoretically called back for refresher training every second year;
only a fifth of the reservists who went through refresher training last
year completed the newly extended two-week course, with the majority
doing only five or seven days.
♦
(3)
Elbridge Colby (co-led
the Trump administration's development of its National Defense Strategy)
said (Taipei Times, 2024): There are few visible indicators of a
society preparing to repel an attack as one might see in, say, Israel.
Indeed;
Taiwanese leaders
themselves have undermined this effort by urging the US to send key
weapons, industrial base attention, and money to Ukraine rather than
Taiwan.
Economist, 2024-9-5: polls suggest Taiwanese
will to resist rests, on whether Taiwanese think America will
defend them.
♦ Wall Street Journal, 2024-8-28:
Elbridge Colby has fired off a flurry of social-media commentary
suggesting the U.S. may not come to Taiwan's defense in the event of
Chinese aggression.
♦
247wallst.
2024-9-19: Similar to Ukraine, the United States may opt to
stay out of any armed conflict but supply Taiwan with substantial
military aid to fight alone.
♦
The Hill, 2024-9-26: Every day the U.S. sends an inadvertent message of “non-deterrence” to
China.
♦
Foreign Policy, 2023-9-8:
Deterrence in Taiwan Is Failing
/ The United States has committed to keeping the peace but isn't doing enough to
stop the war
♦
The i, 2024-8-16:
the war in Ukraine has sucked so much resource and attention from Europe
that it cannot militarily support another conflict in its current state.
The US cannot prosecute a war (ps: in Taiwan) beyond the weapons and munitions in
its inventory.
"cyberwar" - pro-Russian vs Taiwan
The Jamestown Foundation , 2024-9-30
Russia was quick to respond to President Lai's suggestion: Lai is not
authorized to speak on China's behalf about the ownership of Russian
territories.
Taiwan should focus on China's offer of peaceful reunification. Komsomol’skaia
Pravda, February 9, 2019: The Qing land
lost is
almost twice the size of modern Germany.
China's stridency towards the Soviet Union subsided following Mao's
death
CNBC (USA), 2024-9-13
"a large number of foreign IPs launched invalid queries" on stock
exchange network, resulting in “unstable service for a short period of
time. Local media reported this attack on the Taiwanese government
and financial unites, including
airports and tax bureaus
by a pro-Russian hacker group in retaliation for comments made by
Taiwanese President William Lai (Lai Ching-te) .cnbc.com/2024/09/13/pro-russian-hackers-crash-taiwan-stock-exchange-website-local-media-reports-.html
Daily Express (UK), 2024-9-3
Lai Ching-te has mocked Vladimir
Putin with a humiliating quip, saying his biggest ally China should
take advantage of Russia being
at its "weakest" and take back territory.
◆Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-9-11: Beijing wades into Taipei drama over corruption probe against TPP
leader Ko Wen-je,
and has accused Taiwan's president of persecuting
Beijing-leaning revals◆ Financial
Times,
2024-9-6:Prosecutors' swift moves against Cheng(former
premier 鄭文燦)
and Ko Wen-je (Chairman
of TPP)
have prompted Taiwanese commentators to question whether Lai was
“cleaning house” of political rivals or pushing an anti-corruption
crackdown to win back public support (divert attention from the current
chaos in domestic politics.). an official at the Judicial Yuan
said investigators typically sounded out their
superiors before proceeding with big cases, especially those
involving vested interests or politicians. “In a case like this, a
signal would have been given from above before they go and detain him"◆ Asia
Nikkei (Japan),
2024-9-5:Taiwan's Ko Wen-je accuses government of
witch hunt; Ko Wen-je, head of the Taiwan People's Party, vowed to fight on and launched broadsides against the legal system and the press, accusing
them of doing the bidding of President Lai Ching-te's Democratic
Progressive Party.◆ Newsweek ,
2024-9-5: Russian Foreign
Ministry said Lai is "being pushed towards separatism by the
Americans." ; he should focus more on attention to Taiwan's economy... ◆ US
News & World Report ,
2024-9-1:The TPP and KMT joined forces this year to push through reforms to give
parliament greater oversight power that prompted mass protests. Those
reforms, opposed by President Lai Ching-te's DPP, are being reviewed by
Taiwan's constitutional court.
TPP founder Ko Wen-je
was released
today after being
questioned in graft
probe◆ Reuters,
2024-9-2: If
China wants Taiwan it should also take back land from Russia, president
Lai Ching-te says◆ EFE
(Spain),
2024-8-29:Taiwan says not
'affiliated' with
China after Wang- Sullivan meeting in Beijing;
Since William Lai (Lai Ching-te) took office in May,
China has raised the tone of its threats against the “secessionists” of
Taiwan ......◆ SCMP,
2024-8-30:Taiwan's new leader
is cutting mainland ties by reframing history ◆ Asia Nikkei
(Japan),
2024-8-27:
William Lai marks 100 days in office as China and
opposition test mettle; The defining
themes of his presidency so far have been efforts to reform the economy,
strengthen Taiwan's defenses against China's threats and deal with a
confrontational opposition that controls parliament.
◆ Defense News,
2024-8-23: President Lai Ching-te's election campaign
promised that defense spending would reach 3% of GDP. Taiwan's
defense expenditures in 2025 will represent 2.45% of GDP, almost
identical to this year's if lawmakers approve the proposal later this
month.
◆ National
Review,
2024-8-23: the CCP's prominent
Chinese People's Political and Consultative Conference body purportedly passed
a resolution urging the Chinese authorities to craft a “Taiwan Province
Separatist Forces Blacklist”; The author of that resolution called
for the execution of Taiwanese president William Lai
◆Financial Times,
2024-8-22: Taiwan's top
security officials make secret trip to US for talks;
Some US officials are also
privately nervous about Lai, who is inexperienced in foreign affairs and
seen as more unpredictable than Tsai.◆Atlantic Council, 2024-8-21:Lai Ching-Te and the Legislative Yuan
should work together to increase defense spending and military
readiness. This requires ensuring that more new voluntary military
recruits and conscripts are familiar with or trained in manning
asymmetrical systems, such as the Stinger, Javelin, and Harpoon
missiles.◆
AFP,
2024-8-21: Lai Ching-tepoints to Beijing's joint exercises with Russia in the South China
Sea, Western Pacific and Sea of Japan.Lai has repeatedly made overtures for dialogue with Beijing but talks
have effectively dried up since the 2016 election of his predecessor,
Tsai Ing-wen, who has long said Taiwan is not part of China. ◆
Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-8-15: Excessive U.S. pressure on Taiwan defense spending plays into
(China) CCP's
hands◆GIS Report
(Geopolitical
Intelligence Services),
2024-8-15:Lai Ching-te is struggling to counter the
creative use of pressure coming from China.Lai's
governance style is seen as more “manly” and
unafraid of conflict, while lacking a degree of sophistication.◆Council on Foreign Relations,
2024-8-9: Taiwan's President, Lai Ching-te,
has unveiled plans to increase defense spending by nearly six percent.
Taiwan should do all it can to prepare for the worst and mounts a stiff resistance if
deterrence fails. To that end, Taiwan's leaders should embrace a new defense
spending target of five percent of GDP and rapidly meet that goal through yearly
double-digit percentage increases ◆
Washington Post, Star and Strips,
2024-8-4:
the “Zero Day” show's bleak assessment of
Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing
President Lai Ching-te.
Matt Pottinger
says
that Taiwan needs the political will and
foresight to dedicate some of its best military officers to recruitment
and instruction. “I'm really hoping that
Taiwan makes these sacrifices"
nThe
Diplomat, 2024-8-6: a global furor over a boxer's gender.
n
Fox News, 2024-8-4: Debate over the biological sex of a boxer who won women's match at the Olympic
Games is sweeping the globe.
n
Fox News, 2024-8-11: The IBA has said that Lin had an unfair advantage against female
opponents.
West
Taiwan
♦ Associated
Press News, 2024-8-11:
The two boxers' detractors
included former U.S. President Donald Trump, “Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling
and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni.
Their presence in Paris became a weapon in a largely Western culture clash over
eligibility for women's sports.
♦
BBC, 2024-8-12: high profile figures like ex-US
President Donald Trump and English author JK Rowling took to social media to decry the decision to let them
compete in the women's categories.
♦ Reuters,
2024-8-7: Tesla founder Elon Musk voicing their opposition to the two
boxers competing at the Games.
♦ Fox News
, 2024-8-4: ...a positive test for "XY
chromosomes. The IBA: said Lin and Khelif have competitive advantages.
♦ BBC,
2024-8-9: Dr Emma Hilton, a developmental biologist who studies
genetic disorders.
argues Imane Khelif and Lin Yu-ting
shouldn’t be competing until further testing is done.Some are calling for mandatory sex testing at the next Olympics -
including Reem Alsalem, the UN's special rapporteur on violence against women
and girls. “Screening DNA is now a piece of cake".
♦ Axios, 2024-8-9: Khelif :
The attacks came from a host of prominent Republicans as
well as celebrities
♦ Reuters,
2024-8-7: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said
Lin had been "maliciously attacked"
by the IBA.
"Yu-Ting is still under a lot of unfair pressure..."
♦ BBC,
2024-8-12: Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te calls Lin a "daughter of Taiwan," saying she had made Taiwan proud.
" she has
overcome misinformation and cyberbullying" .
♦
Independent, 2024-8-8: "Let's cheer for Lin Yu-ting together", wrote Tsai Ing-wen,
Taiwan's first female president , adding that Lin was seeking victory for herself and honour for
Taiwan.
PS: Taiwan's The China Times
(2024-8-13): Olympics Paris forced one of Taiwan's athletes to do gender
test. (巴黎奧運公然對台灣某位選手無禮，竟強迫她去作性別檢查)
chinatimes.com/opinion/20240813001656-262110?chdtv
◆
TIME,
2024-8-2: Harry Potter writer J.K.
Rowling, a key opinion leader, is publicly questioning the Taiwanese
athlete's ( Olympian Lin Yu Ting has XY chromosomes ) gender (a
transgender ) and doubling down on opposition to the participation of
athletes like Lin.Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's spokesperson
said that Lin “has shown incredible strength, overcoming doubts to
compete fairly on the world stage. Your determination inspires the
nation!” ◆
Bloomberg,
2024-7-30: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te pledged to work with other democracies
around the world to stand up to China, and “continue to push for defense
autonomy” and weapons procurement from overseas, his comments likely to deepen his
rift with Beijing.◆ Reuters, 2024-7-30:Taiwan president (Lai Ching-te) warns on
China, pushes defence self-reliance ◆ Benzinga, 2024-7-30:
After Trump's Taiwan comments, President Lai Ching Te says 'China's
threat to any individual country is a threat to the world'◆ Independent (UK), 2024-7-30:
Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be worse global crisis than Ukraine war
or Covid, warns presidentLai Ching-te ◆
Politico, 2024-7-25:
Trump spooks Taiwan / The political class of Taiwan is
increasingly uneasy that a Donald Trump victory in Nov. may
make Taiwan a bargaining chip in U.S. diplomacy with
Beijing.
Trump also
suggested that trying to defend the island would
be futile ◆ Associated Press, 2024-7-24:
President Lai Ching-te stressed the need for the island to continue
exercises simulating an attack by enemies amid 'changing geopolitics'.◆ Bloomberg, 2024-7-22:
Taiwan's President risks
angering China with
'National Identity'call.
Lai Ching-te urges
DPP to protect Taiwan sovereignty.KMT lawmakersaid
it smacked of “ideology and nationalism” and was a
sign that Lai was moving toward despotism◆
US News, 2024-7-21: Taiwan must protect its sovereignty
and know its own culture and history,
President Lai Ching-te said,
rejecting what he said was the previous
mistaken belief the island could serve
as a base to "retake" China.
◆ New York Times, 2024-7-16: China is putting
more military and political pressure on Taiwan and its new president
(Lai Ching-te), whose rhetoric has been sharper than his
predecessor's... Mr. Lai with hard choices about how and when to push
back or exercise restraint ◆
Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11:
China sent a record number of warplanes across a
U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new
president (Lai Ching-te) of the archipelago mulls a trip that may
include a stop in America ◆Financial Times, 2024-7-10:President Lai Ching-te has made improving civil defences a
priority since he took office. However experts warn that Taiwan
remains woefully underprepared for war.
◆
Reuters, 2024-7-9:Taiwan president says ahead of annual war games
that
"In history, there are many cases where the few
win out over the many, and there are countless ways to win over
old-fashioned enemies with
new thinking."◆National
Interest, 2024-7-5:Taiwan seeks to escape its history / Lai Ching-te
said Taiwan has been an international entity ... since 1624. DPP
administrations have issued textbooks that
teach Taiwan's history separately from Chinese history. But
The Struggle for Taiwan : Taiwan was, in fact, part of the
Chinese empire from 1683 to 1895, and part of the Japanese empire after
the First Sino-Japanese War (1894–5). US President Franklin
Roosevelt at the wartime Cairo
Conference (1943) agreed that Taiwan would be “restored to the Republic of
China” after the defeat of Japan. However, Lai's clear preference
for Taiwan's permanent separation from China echoes almost verbatim an emerging U.S. argument that Taiwan's geostrategic importance
dictates that Washington should never allow China to gain
control over it.
nationalinterest.org/feature/taiwan-seeks-escape-its-history-211750
China seized Taiwan boat with crew for fishing illegally
- a move could add to tensions between
Beijing and President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan.
◆New York Times, 2024-7-3
China Seizes Taiwanese Fishing Boat in Latest Uptick in
Tensions; Bonnie Glaser:
China wants
to demonstrate to Taiwan that it does not have control over air space
and sea space...and sends a signal to Lai
Ching-te that he is
very close to their red lines and he had better not cross them.
◆ Bloomberg, 2024-7-3
China sees Lai Ching-te as pushing for
independence for the US-backed island...Officials
in Taipei have also expressed concern that China will detain more
individuals from the island to pile pressure on Lai.
pic.: "comment Lai
Ching-te"(Chinese version "評論賴清德")
ranks No.1 on Microsoft Bing , 2024-10-13, 2024-10-1, 2024-8-8, 2024-7-1, 2024-6-1,
2024-5-1, 2024-4-10, 2024-3-21, 2024-3-15, 2024-1-26, 2024-1-1, 2023-12-25, 2023-12-18, 2023-11-22,
2023-10-25, 2023-10-13, 2023-10-3, 2023-9-28, 2023-9-18,
2023-9-1, 2023-8-29, 2023-8-19, 2023-8-8, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-31,
2023-7-25, 2023-7-24
pic.: "comment Lai
Ching-te" (Chinese version "評論賴清德")
ranks No.1 on MetaGER.de (Germany) ,
2024-8-8,
2024-7-1,
2024-5-20, 2024-5-8, 2024-5-2, 2024-4-10, 2024-3-22, 2024-1-1, 2023-12-18, 2023-11-23, 2023-10-25, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-29, 2023-8-19
◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-7-2:
Xi
Jinping's regime is setting the legal and diplomatic table for a crackdown
on Taiwan while
blaming the United
States for the growing possibility of war over the island democracy...
“The Chinese government has the right to
expel this regime..."
The ominous rhetoric seems to express in part Xi’s displeasure with Lai Ching-Te◆ Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's
leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is
pursuing
“separation” from China in “incremental” fashion.
◆Nikkei Asia , 2024-7-2:China pressures Taiwan's Lai (Ching-te) with
most jet fighters in nearly 2 years ◆Asia Society, 2024-6-26:Lai Ching-te's inauguration
speech, however, was clear and much less restrained than that of his
predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, whose rhetorical
flair in public speeches opted for cautious and strategically dull
wording. In fact, Lai placed greater emphasis on the differences between
Taiwan and the PRC◆
Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-23:
Lai Ching-te said he aimed to make Taiwan the “Asian center
for the democratic drone supply chain.";Taiwan has the know-how to build its own
unmanned aircraft, now it is a question of
scale.◆CNN, 2024-6-21:
China has made no
secret of its dislike of President Lai
Ching-te. China threatens death penalty for ‘diehard’ Taiwan
separatists◆
Bloomberg, 2024-6-21:
Activities that can lead to guilty verdicts include promoting Taiwan's
membership in international organizations and conducting official
exchanges and military contacts with other nations, according to a legal
opinion issued by China's top court ; But The opinion didn't name new President Lai Ching-te or his predecessor, Tsai
I. W.◆Voice of
America, 2024-6-13:
International Crisis Groupexpert:
Beijing's approach, it seems at least for now, is
really to lean on Washington to keep the incoming Lai administration on
a more moderate course◆TIME, 2024-6-13:
new president Lai Ching-te : "dignity and equivalence with the PRC"
means 1.
the PRC should recognize that the Republic of China
exists.
2.
each issue should be mutually beneficial and
reciprocal
3.share
a common conviction to enhance the well-being of people on both sides of
the Taiwan Strait, working toward an objective of peace and mutual
prosperity◆VOA, 2024-6-13:
The future of Taiwan, at least for the next four
years, largely depends on the actions of the island's new president, Lai
Ching-te.
◆
Neue Zürcher Zeitung (Swiss), 2024-6-6:Taiwan's
president, Lai Ching-te wanted to lead the island to independence.Expert in Australia says an attack by China on
Taiwan would also lead to conflicts in the South China Sea, which is
claimed by China, and attacks by North Korea on South Korea.
◆
United States Institute of Peace , 2024-6-6:Given Lai Ching-te's tougher line on China and Beijing's unyielding
position on Taiwan, it's unlikely that cross-Strait relations will improve or
that tensions will lower anytime soon. Washington should remain laser-focused on helping Taiwan
defend itself and deter military conflict.
◆Washington Examiner, 2024-6-4:
The frosty relationship between Taiwan and China over the past eight
years got even colder after Taiwanese
leader Lai Ching-te took office◆CNN, 2024-6-4: Taiwan celebrities in crossfire of political battle
as tensions with China rise /
Ashin – one of Taiwan's
biggest music stars – had referred to himself as Chinese...Taiwan President Lai Ching-te
says 'We should offer them understanding and empathy'.
◆Washington Examiner, 2024-5-31:
In 'punishment drills', China stages dress rehearsal of military assault on
Taiwan. Foreign
Affairs : invasion does not appear to be China's preferred option.
Beijing's more probable plan is to gradually
intensify the policy: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan's airspace,
maritime space, and information space. The United States must become more alert to the
dangers posed by a slow strangulation of Taiwan.
◆Newsweek, 2024-5-31:
Lai Ching-te faced China's largest-scale military exercises in nearly
two years...
Bonnie Glaser
expects more military drills around Taiwan
intended to intimidate and warn the new Lai administration against
pursuing independence actions
◆Washington Times, 2024-5-29:
Joint Sword 2024A drills is also a strategic
signal to Taiwanese President William Lai letting him know that every
day of his administration will be under the threat of invasion,
regardless of whether or not it happens. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are betting this will have
a huge psychological impact on Mr. Lai and perhaps he will crack under the
pressure and give in, or he will make a mistake and give Beijing an excuse to
invade Taiwan. ◆SUN (Malaysia), RT, 2024-6-1:
Beijing is showing it's willing to go to war over Taiwan, and it's preparing for
the inevitable consequences behind the scenes.☉full
text
◆
CSIS ChinaPower Project, 2024-5-25 /
Chinese officials and state media have
made six different criticisms of Lai's inauguration speech:
1.
It distorts Taiwan's relations with China, does not recognize that Taiwan is
part of China, promotes a two-state theory, and labels China as a foreign
country;
2.
It seeks external involvement and intervention to support Taiwan
independence and to make Taiwan a pawn for the west;
3.
It tries to use democracy as a guise to pursue independence and undermine
peace and stability;
4. It exaggerates and stokes the military threat from China;
5.
It weaponizes Taiwan public opinion against China;
6. It does not accurately reflect mainstream public opinion in
Taiwan
◆AFP, 2024-5-24:
China's
military drills encircle Taiwan /
China warns
that
Taiwan's leadership was pushing the self-ruled
island into war and warned of further "countermeasures".
The United Nations called for all sides to
avoid escalation.
◆CNBC, 2024-5-24:
This military drill is a signal to shape
international narratives. The real 'punishment' against Taiwan may
be yet to come, for it takes time.",
expert
with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub said.
Lai Ching-te may "become emboldened" to depart further from his
predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's relatively cautious positioning and "act on
his pro-independence instincts
◆Reuters, Korea Times, 2024-5-24:
Beijing was sending a finely calibrated warning
that Chinese forces could attempt a swift blockade if it wanted to bring
Lai to heel ◆ Financial Times, 2024-5-22:Lai Ching-te's language on sovereignty has already strayed from the path
taken by his more cautious predecessor.
◆Washington Post, 2024-5-20:
Taiwan swears in new president, the ruling party DPP
has transformed the island democracy into a bulwark against Chinese
aggression and brushed off increasingly ominous
threats from Beijing;
the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative
compared to Tsai's policy
◆New York Times, 2024-5-20:Taiwan's president, Lai
Ching-te vows to keep the island democracy
safe in the face of Chinese pressure and wars raging abroad
Bloomberg: "He wants to lead Taiwan, But can he keep peace?"
pic.: "comment Lai
Ching-te"(Chinese version "評論賴清德")
ranks No.1 on US
Yahoo
, 2024-7-1, 2023-12-31, 2023-12-17, 2023-11-22, 2023-10-25, 2023-9-28, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-28
China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan as
'Punishment', 'Reprisals'
◆New York Times, 2024-5-22
China took offense to Mr. Lai's assertion that
— they “are not subordinate to each other” — and his
emphasis on Taiwan's democratic identity and warnings
against threats from China. Beijing accused Mr. Lai of promoting
formal independence for Taiwan──the drill was “based on various stages of an invasion of Taiwan...
might feature training to seize one of those islands.
◆
BBC, 2024-5-23
the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a
full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan"... for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen,
Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin. China aims to
show Taipei that its east is
now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to
resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile
strikes and naval attack.
◆
AFP, 2024-5-23
China holds war games around Taiwan,
vows flowing blood。 CCTV
: the drills were partly aimed at rehearsing
an economic blockade of the island,
"strangle" Taiwan's critical Kaohsiung port to "severely impact" its foreign
trade, and cut off "Taiwan's lifeline of
energy imports" as well as "block the support lines that some US allies
provide to 'Taiwan independence' forces".
General S. Sklenka described the exercises as "concerning" but not unexpected.
◆
CNN, 2024-5-22
CCTV: creating an omnidirectional
approach in pushing toward the island.
An expert
(
at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace)
calls China's latest drills “an
intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.”Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and
match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options
to coerce and inflict pain。
◆
AFP, 2024-5-22
China slammed the inauguration speech of new
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a "
downright 'confession of Taiwan independence'"
◆
Washington Post, 2024-5-23
The forces were simulating strikes on “high value ‘enemy’ targets” in
military drills.
◆
Reuters, 2024-5-23
Taiwanese officials told Reuters those areas were
outside its
contiguous zone, which is
24 nautical miles from the main
island's coast.
◆Reuters, 2024-5-20:Lai Ching-te takes office as Taiwan's new president on Monday facing an
angry and deeply suspicious China which believes he is a "separatist",
and a fractious parliament with an opposition chomping at the bit to
challenge him.
◆Washington Examiner, 2024-5-20:
Lai, a deep green, more liberal than Biden member of the DPP，Lai
has shown "a willingness to signal a pragmatic approach to outreach to
Beijing, effectively a continuation of President Tsai's approach"
◆ Economist (UK), 2024-5-16:
Taiwan's
incoming president, Lai Ching-te, will face new challenges.
If you want the world to help in your struggle against an
overbearing neighbour, you must first fight back fiercely yourselves.
◆ AFP (French), 2024-5-16:
Taiwan's Lai Ching-te takes the helm as president of
the self-ruled island, tasked with navigating the widening rift with an
increasingly assertive China.
"My defining moment came as China's military adventurism... threatened our
shores with live fire exercises and missiles," he wrote in an op-ed for The Wall
Street Journal last year. During Lai's time as premier, he was more vocal
than Tsai about independence◆ Brookings, 2024-5-14:
Beware forecasts of doom for Taiwan under Lai /
William Lai is not a wild-eyed zealot with a one-track-minded focus on
Taiwan independence. He will want to win reelection. To do so, he
almost certainly will need to tack to the center of Taiwan's political
spectrum ... Lai's principal task will be to improve living
conditions and life prospects for Taiwan's rising generation of
voters... drive social and economic reforms through Taiwan's divided
legislature... He will need to govern with discretion and finesse,
rather than bold strokes, to keep Taiwan safe in the face of China's
growing threat.
◆ Foreign Policy, 2024-5-12:
William Lai vowed not to alter the status quo;
While campaigning, Lai defined success for Taiwan as its leaders
being able
to visit the White House. This was a gauntlet thrown down—Taiwanese
officials are blocked from visiting Washington. The Biden administration
immediately demanded an explanation.
This was not how the relationship worked. Lai was willing to push his luck.◆ Economist, 2024-5-16:
Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te faces an upsurge in Chinese coercion;
but China's bullying of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines risks an
explosion. ◆ Voice of America, 2024-5-16:
Taiwan's new president
Lai Ching-te will
face
growing pressure from China at a time when the world is
increasingly divided.☉full
text
Taiwan's new president calls for peace amid tenuous relations
with China. while Lai's remarks may reassure some foreign governments
that he will not pursue formal independence for Taiwan, it did little to
placate leaders in China. Lai's inauguration speech largely
telegraphed his plan to continue the same policies as Tsai ; He's trying
to project an image of pragmatism and predictability
China warned that the island's new leader "must seriously" consider the
question of whether he wants peaceful development or confrontation.
Chinese state media even suggested he should be prosecuted for
secession. The 64-year-old also stuck closely to the formula used
by his predecessor presidentTsai; how Lai deals with Beijing will be the biggest
question that will determine his presidency, especially as both sides
have had no formal communication since 2016.
Lai, like his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, says only Taiwan's people can decide
their future, rejecting Beijing's sovereignty claims. Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi called Lai "disgraceful" - "The ugly acts
of Lai Ching-te and others who betray the nation and their ancestors is
disgraceful".
◆CNN,
2024-5-20
the DPP refused to endorse the
so-called “1992 consensus” that both Taiwan and the mainland belong to “one
China,” but with different interpretations of what that means. Beijing
deems the tacit agreement a precondition for dialogue.
In
2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan's
independence,” drawing Beijing's rebuke. He has since softened his
stance and now supports maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan
Strait and the possibility of talks with Beijing.
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-16:
Taiwan's incoming president Lai Ching-te faces angry China, fractured parliament;
China said the "Taiwan region's new leader" had to make a clear choice
between peaceful development or confrontation. "They are trying to
pressure the new Lai government, wanting him to make concessions under
military pressure"
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-15:
China's military has sailed and flown closer to
Taiwan in recent weeks than it has before, and staged mock attacks on
foreign vessels ahead of the inauguration of the island's next president
Lai Ching-te; Beijing ramps up military and political pressure to assert
its sovereignty over democratically governed Taiwan - a claim Taipei
strongly rejects.
◆ Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15:
China said it would sanction five Taiwanese
political commentators
and
roll out
a law
to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming
president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office.
◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Volodymyr Zelensky,
a potent symbol of Ukrainian resistance, said: ”I need ammunition, not a ride”.
As with Zelensky, Taiwan's
leaders will need the fortitude to stare down a potential onslaught on
their nation ◆ The Hill, 2024-5-15:
US will send an unofficial delegation as Taiwan’s president is sworn in. It'll
test ties with China
◆ Asian News International, 2024-5-17:
China's cyberattacks on Taiwan surge ahead of presidential
inauguration
◆
Council on Foreign Relations , 2024-5-13:
the Economist
labels
Taiwan “the most dangerous place on earth.” As international attention
returns to Taiwan for its presidential inauguration, with keen
interest in what president-elect William Lai will say on cross-strait relations.
☉full
text
◆ Reuters, 2024-5-6:Hsiao and Lai have pledged to
continue President Tsai Ing-wen's defence self-sufficiency and modernisation
programme . Taiwan must invest in building its own 'strengths', vice president-elect
Hsiao says.
◆ SCMP, 2024-5-9:
William Lai cites Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
( 'Taiwan's security is a global issue'
) and his
predecessor Shinzo Abe ('Taiwan's crisis is
Japan's crisis') in highlighting need for Indo-Pacific peace and
stability. Beijing has lashed out at Taiwanese president-elect William
Lai Ching-te for "ingratiating" himself with Japan, and
banking on foreign forces to promote his ambitions of
independence.◆Reuters, 2024-4-27:
William
Lai Ching-te says only Taiwan's people can decide their future
◆ Economist (UK), 2024-4-18:
China is talking to Taiwan’s next leader, just not directly
- Ma Ying-jeou , The island's
former president, wrote that Mr Xi
had “extended an olive branch to us”. Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's
next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”.
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-15:
the White House had worried that Lai would be more likely than Tsai to
provoke Beijing with envelope-pushing rhetoric
and draw the U.S. into a dangerous confrontation;
Appointing a national-security team that is almost identical to that of
his predecessor will be welcomed in Washington and help reassure the
White House that Lai isn't likely to sharply
alter Taiwan's posture toward Beijing
◆ NHK (Japan), 2024-4-25:
Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-te has
announced key members of his new security team;
The appointments suggest that Lai will maintain the policy of the outgoing
administration regarding diplomacy toward the US and China
◆New York Times, 2024-4-10:
In recent months, China has signaled how it could squeeze Mr. Lai's
administration — militarily, economically and diplomatically. It has
brushed off Mr. Lai's offers to talk as insincere. On the other hand,
Beijing has shown that it will court friendlier Taiwanese politicians,who accept the framework that both sides accept that they are part of one China, even if they
differ on what that means.China's “immediate focus is to push the incoming Lai
Ching-te administration to
adopt a more accommodating political stance on cross-strait relations”◆Chicago Tribune, 2024-4-2: Lai Ching-te
has vowed to safeguard its de-facto independence from China and further
align it with other democracies. Taiwan remains the “first red line not
to be crossed,” Xi told Biden, and emphasized that Beijing will not
tolerate ...“exterior indulgence and support” which alluded to
Washington's support for the island.
◆New York Times, 2024-3-31: Taiwanese officials expect China to intensify its
military intimidation once the island's next president, Lai
Ching-te, takes office on May 20. His Democratic Progressive Party
rejects Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China, and Chinese
officials particularly dislike Mr. Lai, often citing his 2017 description
of himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan's independence.”◆New York Times, 2024-3-24:Beijing has been stepping up such “gray zone” tactics to warn Lai Ching-te
— a politician deeply disliked by Chinese leaders.
With Lai Ching-te's inauguration on May 20, mainland China is
definitely going to steadily, consistently raise the pressure”.
Beijing asserts that Taiwan must accept unification, preferably
peacefully, but under armed force if Chinese leaders decide that is
necessary. Mr. Lai's DPP rejects China's claim to Taiwan, and argues that
the island-democracy will chart its own course — self-ruling in
practice, even if most governments do not recognize Taiwan as a separate
state.☉full
text
◆ Reuters, 2024-4-25:
Lai has repeatedly offered
to talk with China has but been rebuffed. Beijing has
repeatedly said any talks can only take place if Taiwan's government
accepts that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of "one China",
which is supported by the KMT but rejected by Lai
◆ AFP (French), 2024-4-23: Taiwan's Lai
Ching-te says US military aid package will 'deter
authoritarianism'. Beijing, which regards Lai as a "dangerous separatist", said
before the January elections that he would cause "war and decline" for Taiwan.
China has ramped up military and political pressures against Taiwan in
recent years, sending in warplanes and naval vessels near-daily
around the island.
◆
SCMP, 2024-4-19:Taiwan
Strait may face ‘political tsunami’ in 2025 /
Election of William Lai has sparked cross-strait 'uncertainty' that may
worsen if Trump returns to power, article in Taiwan affairs journal says.
Lai might adopt "low profile" and "moderate" cross-strait policies after taking
office next month, and was unlikely to declare "de jure Taiwan independence" any
time soon, the article said.But, in the long term, Lai might bring "high" risks such as decoupling
with the mainland economy, and even "very high" risks of "causing major
accidental incidents" in the strait... ◆ Newsweek, 2024-3-16:
many harbor concerns about the president-elect's
history of pro-independence
rhetoric; But any fear that Lai Ching-Te might cause a war by declaring formal
independence is overblown. He lacks both the will and the power to do
so. Only 4.5 percent of Taiwan's public supports an imminent
declaration of independence;
Most importantly, in Taiwan's political system, the president lacks the
authority to declare independence.☉full
text
comment Taiwan's president, William Lai Ching-te
♣
The Guardian (2023-5-24): The 63-year-old
former public health expert has been in politics since 1996, including as mayor
of Tainan.Lai has enjoyed political
popularity. He's been
described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai, which had prompted some
concern about whether a Lai presidency could worsen cross-strait tensions.“For the DPP’s independentist
wing, Lai has always been their favourite son.
For DPP’s moderate wing, Lai’s recent movement
towards the centre is merely following President
Tsai’s footsteps.”theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/taiwans-choice-who-will-replace-tsai-ing-wen-as-president-amid-china-tensions
Helen Davidson in
Taipei and Chi Hui Lin
♣
Economist (2023-5-31):
The next president Lai Ching-te will
take office with the island
at the centre of a bubbling
superpower showdown. In 2017 he called himself a
“Taiwanese independence worker”,antagonising China
and providing an uncomfortable reminder to America
of Taiwan's first
DPP president,
Chen Shui-bian (2000-08), whose talk of independence
unsettled American negotiations with China.Mr Lai knows he needs to tone down his language. He
has said his priority is not taidu,
Taiwan independence, but taizhu,
Taiwan democracy, and has moderated the DPP's
slogan from “resist China and protect Taiwan” to “peacefully
protect Taiwan”. But all that is unlikely to wash with the
CCP...
♣ Washington Post (2024-11-24): Beijing considers Lai a dangerous “troublemaker” who
will move Taiwan toward a formal separation from
China, and has twice sanctioned his running mate,
Hsiao Bi-khim, who was Taiwan's de facto ambassador
to the United States until this week.Hsiao on Thursday
called for international support to push Beijing toward resuming dialogue with
Taiwan if she and Lai win. “War is not an option,”
♣
BBC (2023-11-24):
Mr William Lai is not much of a campaigner.
♣
VOA (2023-11-24):
For Beijing, Lai is a threat. During a daily press
conference on Tuesday, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office
spokesperson said Lai attempted to hide that he is a
“pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of
war.” Lai has vowed to maintain the status quo across
the Taiwan Strait while highlighting the importance of Taiwan maintaining close
relations with like-minded democracies such as the United States and Japan.
♣
Bloomberg (2023-11-24) :
There is zero chance that the unhappy
trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai wins,” he
added. “It will certainly lead to a
continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats.”
♣ AOL, Fortune
(2023-11-23): To Bloomberg,
Lai said that Taiwan does not
need formal sovereignty because, for all intents and purposes, the
island already acts like an independent country.
♣
China Daily (2023-11-23):
Lai Ching-te & Hsiao Bi-khim triggered concerns that the
"dual-separatist combination" that Lai and Hsiao forms will only push Taiwan
into the abyss. That is why the two have been described as the "most dangerous
combination".Hsiao has lobbied the island authorities to lift the ban on imports of US
pork that contains the leanness-enhancing additive ractopamine, and encouraged Taiwan
to purchase large amounts of US weapons. Always docile and obedient to the US,
she acts more like a "US representative to Taiwan".
♣
Axios (2023-11-22): Beijing
would be likely to "use heightened military exercises, diplomatic pressure, and
economic sanctions as a way to exert pressure on a potential Lai presidency to
set the terms of future cross-Strait interaction.
北京的工具箱裡有廣泛的強制措施。在未來幾天和幾週內加大對台灣的經濟和軍事壓力，以表達其不滿，或等到賴上台後採取更強有力的回應
msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-voters-dismiss-china-warnings-and-hand-ruling-party-a-historic-third-consecutive-presidential-win/ar-AA1mUnBb
Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor
美國Washington
Post, 2024-1-13
中国的軍事施壓行動引發了人們對誤判的擔憂，認為這可能引發衝突並吸引美國的參與。分析人士正在密切關注北京是否會透過大規模演習來回應賴的勝利，這可能會導致緊張局勢升級
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/13/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te/
Christian Shepherd
Vic Chiang
法國
AFP, 2024-1-14
Asia Society Policy Institute專家:
可以預期北京將加劇對台北的緊張局勢和脅迫。兩岸兩個政黨的時代……就統一問題達成某種政治共識的時代正在消失。中国官方的立即反應雖然相對平靜，但也顯示沒有妥協的餘地。有官媒寫道:“實力和保留動武的選擇是和平統一的先決條件。”Brookings
Institution專家: 沒有跡象表明很快發動衝突
sg.news.yahoo.com/china-pile-pressure-rebuke-taiwans-064507391.html
一些中國問題專家預計中国的反應將是「強硬的」。可能會在未來幾週或幾個月內發生，而不是在接下來的幾天內。五~十五年前，北京會做的事情是相當可預測的。現在變得越來越困難
msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-taiwan-s-high-stakes-elections-china-is-the-loser/ar-AA1mVl3g
Ellen Ioanes
總統大選前夕
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美國New
York Times, 2024-1-12:
侯先生的勝利並非遙不可及。柯先生的勢頭一直在增強，但成功的希望仍然渺茫。鑑於生活成本不斷增加，尤其引起年輕選民的抱怨，他們的投票率（通常遠低於老年人）可能會對總統大選發揮決定性作用。
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美國Fox news, 2024-1-12:
voter
sentiment shows that some polls have the leading candidates separated by just 1%) ◆
美國Wall
Street Journal, 2024-1-11: 北京已經表明，中國大陸和台灣之間七十多年來不穩定的共存可能在未來數月甚至數年變得更加不穩定 ◆
美國New
York Times, 2024-1-12: 自從蔡英文八年前就任總統以來，中国不斷加大軍事壓力。中国的噴射機和軍艦定期測試台灣的軍事力量，削弱了兩岸海峽中線的重要性，這條中国軍隊過去很少跨越的非正式邊界。
台灣總統大選辯論
2023-12-30 中国對台灣的壓力成為焦點。台灣選舉標誌著關於自治和獨立的激烈交鋒。民進黨在台灣總統大選辯論中面臨指控。WION
video msn.com/en-in/video/watch/taiwan-set-to-go-polls-on-january-13/vi-AA1mfaaw
參選總統的三大政黨都拒絕接受中国統治，三位候選人都承認台灣可能是下個發生衝突的地區，並都試圖讓選民相信自己最有能力確保和平。對北京來說，首要任務是確保執政民進黨下台
theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/30/taiwan-election-new-president-growing-threat-china
Helen Davidson
