|
|
|
|
Opinion on Taiwan★★★ politics,
war
★★★analysis
& comments |
|
|
|
|
|
Opinion on Taiwan★★★ politics,
war
★★★analysis
& comments |
|
♦♦
♦
Taiwan president shoots in his foot
♦♦♦
♦
Taiwan, freedom & democracy? ♦
♦
US skepticism from Taiwan
♦
♦
Taiwan leaders - liars?
♦
♦
same-sex marriage in Taiwan on
purpose ?
♦♦
Taiwan president's secret life?♦ ♦
mind control weaponry in Taiwan
♦♦
China's invasion of Taiwan
♦♦♦
disinformation, interference from foreign
countries
♦♦
Taiwan - lowest trust
rates in the media among
democracies
OPinion ♣♣ ♣Taiwan's
military ──
in
the stage of infancy
♣
♣
Military
Structure
Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21: an expert of the Atlantic Council said, “People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in";"They have to start training them to do very basic things". the Taiwan military's core problem, is operational-level and tactical-level decision-making", Their structure is very hierarchical, almost Soviet-style." The biggest problem was the general staff's planning process, they need to learn to adapt operational plans to a changing situation in wartime in rapid, live planning cycles.
Taiwan leaders
National Interest (2024-7-20) : ...... Taiwan out to be less of a sovereign state in need of help, and more a vassal state to America. it would appear that the main aim of Taiwan's national defense is to wait for the Americans and their allies to come rolling in ...Taiwanese leaders need to know how unlikely this reality is.
Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces—while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.
Weapons
nAssociated Press (2023-10-9) : Some in Congress want to cut Ukraine aid and boost Taiwan's. But Taiwan sees its fate tied to Kyiv's New York Times (2023-5-30) : Taiwan Ambassador Hsiao Bi-Khim (current vice president) rebuted those arguments and says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter China. "I think pushing back on aggression is the key message that will help to deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way”.
Taiwan's former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu ( 吳釗燮, current Secretary General of Taiwan's National Security Council) thinks the same - the world should be “defending Taiwan by defending Ukraine. He made it clear that linking Taiwan to Ukraine is a priority of Taiwan's government.
nAmerican Reservative (2024-7-6) : Wu went further, however, with the unqualified statement that U.S. military support for Ukraine “does not detract from the defense of places such as Taiwan.” Unfortunately, this simply isn't true.
nElbridge Colby (Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1) said that Hsiao's suggestion that weapons stocks don't matter is particularly ridiculous. Still, Taiwan definitely needs Stingers, Javelins, and Patriot missiles — and a lot of them. Unfortunately, Stingers don't grow on trees. "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out? How much should Americans be willing to suffer if Taiwan isn't even prepared to advocate for its own defense? Taiwan's defense is already a tough case. She's making it a lot tougher."
nCFR.org
(Council on Foreign Relations,
2024-7-19): Some prominent
Republicans, including Vance, have argued that providing military assistance to
Ukraine detracts from the ability to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
nWashington Examiner (2024-7-19)
: Taiwanese leaders have also, if
unintentionally, encouraged the
United States to prioritize aiding Ukraine over boosting American capabilities
in the Indo-Pacific. This, too, is a
mistake.
A Sino-American conflict would be the most devastating war in more than half a
century, likely leaving many thousands of Americans dead and entailing attacks on
the homeland. Americans can't, and shouldn't, be expected to fight and die for a
nation that won't protect itself.
The public
Some media publicize fake news - most Taiwanese are willing to join the army.
nNational Interest, 2023-7-16 : Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen announced a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received backlash from younger Taiwanese.
n Roll Call, 2022-9-28: Most people do not want to join the military... general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to 50 and their children, will fight against that policy...
n Washington Examiner, 2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps.
n China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year. World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are willing to be on the battlefield. chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv
nFinancial Times, 2022-12-27: The conscription reform follows years of increasing US pressure on Taiwan to strengthen its defences. Financial Times (UK), 2021-9-15 : Washington keeps scolding Taipei over its supposed lack of preparation against an ever mightier Beijing.
Military capacity - to resist an attack by China
nWall Street Journal (2024-7-18): Taiwan would struggle to defend itself alone from an amphibious assault or blockade even with heroic military effort.
nTaiwan's United Daily (2024-3-14, udn.com/news/story/6656/7830786?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2): Former minister of Defense Li (李傑) said we can resist 2 weeks to wait the US comes to help; another former minister Yen (嚴明) said one month, former minister Gao (高華柱) said at least one month, former chief of the general staff Liu (劉和謙) said two weeks ...
nBarron's, AFP (France), 2024-7-22: Japan has reportedly concluded that a ground landing in Taiwan by Chinese troops would now be "possible in less than a week" instead of the previous estimate of a month. NBC News (2024-5-28): expert says the Chinese military could seize Taiwan's government buildings in under an hour nbcnews.com/now/video/expert-says-the-chinese-military-could-seize-taiwan-s-government-buildings-in-under-an-hour-211721797548
nShould the US will come to rescue, how long does it take ? RAND ( Jun. 2023) (rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1658-1.html) : Taiwan's capacity to resist an attack by China for 90 days—the amount of time plausibly required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out an intervention in East Asia.
Military budget
nJapan's Kyodo News (2023-7-28): The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor," and the gap appears to be growing year by year."
Semafor (2024-7-19) : Elbridge Colby has suggested the island spend between 5% and 10% of its GDP on defense.
nTaiwan's current budget - 2.5% of its GDP . A member of KMT lawmaker Ko said "at least 5% of its GDP on defense" would likely be impossible to achieve.
nNew York Post (2024-7-22): Taiwan reacts to Trump's they "should pay us for defense" comments - Reactions were mixed - some expressing varying degrees of agreement and others pointing out that Taiwan is still waiting for some $19 billion worth of already-purchased American weapons.
nSCMP (2024-7-21): Under the previous Trump administration, US arms sales to Taiwan reached a record high of US$18.3 billion over four years, compared to the US$6.3 billion so far during the presidency of Joe Biden. However, Associated Press (2023-10-9): as much as $19 billion worth of weapons sold to Taiwan have been delayed. (They have not come till present Jul. 25, 2024 )
nIndependent (UK, 2024-7-21): there are no legal guarantees that a new resident of the White House couldn't cancel these transfers by executive order, if they deemed it to be in the US's interests. Asia Times (2023-1-7): NDAA ─ Typical of Washington chicanery, Taipei pays first for a possible future delivery of advanced weapons. Based on past records, Taipei holding an empty bag is not beyond the realm. asiatimes.com/2023/01/2023-bodes-poorly-for-us-international-relations/ Fox News (2024-7-22), Cato Institute: According to the Cato Institute, Taiwan on average waits longer than other nations for the delivery of weapons, especially HIMARS, newly built F-16s, and Abrams tanks.
************ ENDING ***************
The US sold F35 and JASSM etc to Japan, however, The Hill (2022-11-29): American administrations consistently have refused to sell Taiwan advanced fighter aircraft, diesel submarines and other weapons systems that could threaten Chinese assets and potentially deter Beijing from initiating a conflict.
Bloomberg (2024-7-22): Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te urges DPP (the ruling party) to protect Taiwan sovereignty. However, National Interest (2024-7-20) : ... Taiwan out to be less of a sovereign state in need of help, and more a vassal state to America. Eurasian Times (7-9-2020) : The (Taiwan) authority turns to Washington and is willing to be used. Taiwan now under "Deep Control" of the US.
Focus Taiwan (2024-2-23): More than 80 percent of Taiwanese people want to maintain the status quo with China. But things may change. Brookings (1-22-2021): Only 23% (Taiwanese) thought that democracy was more important than economic development. 16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than reducing economic inequality
2024-7-25
OPinion ♣♣ ♣US
Human Rights Report on Taiwan
♣
♣
♣ Voice of America News, 2023-11-24: interviewee said ... the issue of corruption that has long plagued Taiwan's politics.
♣ According to the Guardian (UK), 2024-1-7: In Taiwan's presidential election, corruption...trumped concerns about a belliger neighbour (China). Political corruption is often the “most stressed issue in Taiwanese elections and has been the most influential issue in a number of local and national elections”.
♣ VOA News, 2024-1-3: Beijing has noticed that Taiwan's 2024 presidential election campaign has focused on corruption scandals rather than cross-strait relations.
♣ Bloomberg, 2024-7-12 : A court ordered former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan detained while he is investigated for corruption, the latest development in the highest-profile graft probe in the democratically run archipelago since President Chen Shui-bian in 2008.
How far the 'crackdown' can go is still far from certain, because Taiwan's judiciary has been a major problem.
