Times (UK), 2022-5-17: US
wanted Taiwan to focus on capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, air and
missile defences, command and communications, intelligence surveillance and
reconnaissance, and early- warning systems... Taipei
also wants to guard against, such as Chinese incursions into its air defence
identification zone or a sea blockade
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-10:
PRC roughly has that capability to forcibly retake the island sooner than 2027
Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4:
Since the Chinese economy
is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be
virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's
lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous.
Washington Post, 2022-5-4:
China insists... has no plans to attack the island it
claims as its own. ◆
Guardian, 2022-4-24: ...
waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking
into conflict may
well be growing
◆ Economist, 2022-4-20:
the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the
need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days;
Taiwan can learn ...Fighting
spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe
Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming
◆ Taipei Times, 2022-4-25:
Richard D. Fisher, Jr.:
Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new
very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance
street Journal, 2022-4-18:
Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's
reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut
Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house
nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil - to
deter America from intervening in conflict
Taiwan VS. US's
US disagrees Taiwan's
requests for big-ticket weapons
2022-5-10:These flashier purchases are politically
popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military
leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone”
attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault
has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have
increased every year
“throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a
Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”
guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block
the Russian main force in Ukraine?
The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26
guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large
number of civilian casualties。
“Their underlying thinking is that PLA
has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway...
Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being
tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that
Americans come to our rescue
Washington was right to
push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion,
but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.
◆ New York Times,
presses Taiwan to buy
missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited
to Win Against China); But some Taiwanese
defense officials are resistant.
2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against
Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests
for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive
items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out
assault from the mainland.
equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines —
are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile —
strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has
taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the
administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside
their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
National Interest, 2022-5-15:
One important task has been to tailor the
provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s
military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and
, 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's
leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance
Clarity" - US defend Taiwan
Japanese former PM
are permanent, veto-wielding members of the United Nations Security
Council, the UN’s mediation function cannot be relied upon for
conflicts in which they are involved... Ukraine is an independent state
beyond any doubt, Taiwan is not....Unlike in
Ukraine, Chinese leaders could claim that any invasion of Taiwan
that China launches is necessary to suppress anti-government
activities in one of its own regions, and that such acts therefore
would not violate international law...The time has come for the US
to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted
U.S. 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan
US policy of ambiguity
toward Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by
encouraging China to underestimate U.S. resolve...
2022-4-24: a switch
from “strategic ambiguity” to clarity ...
would prompt a major reaction from Beijing and might
not enhance deterrence。
to fight for Taiwan, as some advocate, would do little to deter
China, which already assumes America will do so. And such a promise
would, at the very least, cause a diplomatic crisis...President
Joe Biden has said explicitly that America will not join the
fighting (in Ukriane) for fear of starting “World War III”.。
Policy, 2022-4-26: U.S.
security cooperation is a more powerful demonstration of commitment than
any declaration of intent.
2022-4-23: It will never be in America's interests
to join a military confrontation over Taiwan that
could quickly escalate to involve
the use of nuclear weapons.
PS: What is "Strategic
The U.S. has two obligations to Taiwan
under the Taiwan Relations Act: to sell it arms and to maintain the
capacity to protect the island. In
essence, it doesn't have to defend Taiwan,
but it can. csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2021/1214/Time-to-be-clear-on-Taiwan-Strategic-ambiguity-faces-test
Taiwan will have
to rely on itself to defend the island from a mainland
attack, analysts say
"It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when" ◆ Foreign
Only 2 percent of respondents
(international relations experts at U.S.
universities and colleges) supported direct military action against Russia compared to 18 percent
in a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◆
street Journal, 2022-3-29:
Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the
kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed
to upgrade Taiwan's military...many
younger Taiwanese dislike conscription
New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the
danger for Taiwan. China has time: Any invasion of
Taiwan could be years away ◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20:
Taiwan hasn't built the kind
of territorial defense force Ukraine is using to great effect right now...over
much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the
opposite direction: It cut the size of its
regular army and reduced the training of its reserves...
will take more than five years to get there. ◆
TIME, 2022-3-18: mandatory military service
... is only four months—compared to 18 months in South
Korea, and about two years in Israel and Singapore. “We only had basic training"...most analysts say that the island would not be able to
stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine’s situation has sparked debate
over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid ◆
Japan Times, Bloomberg, 2022-3-20:
Nine in 10 Japanese people are concerned that China may
DW, 2022-3-15: Easton: Taiwan's military now lacks manpower and requires
updated and intensified training.
legislator: "we are
far from ready" ◆Washington Post, 2022-3-15: The
war in Ukraine could make China rethink invading Taiwan ◆
military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its
government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA
would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s
deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068
billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement
News, 2022-3-13: China warns of 'worst consequences' for any country that supports Taiwan
Is Taiwan willing to fight for itself ?
York Times, 2021-8-16: Biden: American troops cannot and should
not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are
not willing to fight for themselves.
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over
much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the
opposite direction: It cut the size of its
regular army and reduced the training of its reserves.
Economist, 2022-4-23: The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting
walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”...
(UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these
issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to
2020-10-19 : Given
these electoral realities,
Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward
military showpieces — while
hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.
however, the United States may not be up to the task.
2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to
fight to defend their land. Taiwan's
sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...
imported wrong weapons
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: It invested
in high-end weapons beloved by military brass, like F-16s and Abrams
tanks, instead of more mundane tools that might deter a shipborne invader:
antiaircraft weapons, anti-ship missiles and
Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19: Taiwan's advanced aircraft, ships, and
tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that
China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage.
2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes.
Economist 2022-4-23: American critics question the billions being spent on expensive
systems, ... many of the high-end weapons will be
quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective.
Taiwan needs lots of asymmetric
mobile defense weapons.
Taiwan has been developing
some military planes, ships ...