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Brief Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. However, Trump has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China. Extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.
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Brief Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. However, Trump has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China. Extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.
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| ◆ Stanford Review, 2025-2-24 | Taiwan's military is dilapidated. The assumption of CSIS's 2023 war game rests on false premises. Upon closer examination, Taiwan's military readiness and morale stand on weak foundations. What money the government does have to spend on procurement they do so on flashy items like fighter jets, tanks, and attack helicopters–are reduced to piles of twisted steel in hours of an invasion. stanfordreview.org/the-illusion-of-taiwanese-strength/ |
| ◆ RFI, AFP (France), 2025-2-23 | In reality, Taiwan would be massively outgunned in terms of troop numbers and firepower in any war with China. |
| ◆ Economist (UK), 2025-2-6 | China is infiltrating Taiwan's armed forces. |
| ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21 | “People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in". |
| ◆ National Interest, 2023-7-16 | Taiwanese President announced a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received backlash from younger Taiwanese. Roll Call (2022-9-28): Most people do not want to join the military... |
| ◆ Washington Times , 2024-12-27 | visible signs of societal and governmental preparedness are lacking. Unlike Israel, where civil and military readiness is a national ethos, Taiwan appears complacent, Taiwan must cultivate a culture of national defense akin to Israel's |
| ◆ National Interest , 2024-7-30 | On top of that, Taiwan does not have a strong draft... whether Taiwan is serious about resisting a Chinese invasion or even if it takes such threats seriously. Taiwan's politicians likely realize better than Washington that Taiwanese voters may not be as inclined to make the kind of heavy sacrifices that are necessary to defend their freedom as the Ukrainians, Israelis, Finns, or Swiss. |
| ◆ Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 | Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... |
| ◆ Economist (UK), 2022-4-23 | The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”... |
| ◆ Economist (UK), 2024-9-5 | polls suggest Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics |
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pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military army" on Yandex Russia,2025-2-22
pic.: No.3 "Taiwanese military"on Bing, 2022-9-22; No.2 "Taiwan military" at 2022-3-30, No.1 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 2021-6-4, 2021-6-1; No.3 "Taiwanese military" at 2022-9-10, No.3 "Taiwan military" at 2022-5-29 ; No.2 Taiwan military army on Yandex, 2025-2-12
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full text
(中文版 Chinese
version)
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Will the US defend Taiwan ? |
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| ◆ Fox News, 2025-2-7 | Trump's comments on the campaign trail suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of the island democracy. |
| ◆ Newsweek, 2025-1-3 | Trump, who positioned himself as being tough on China, has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China. |
| ◆ Washington Post, 2024-11-6 | Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” about American intent at a time when the Taiwanese are “directly threatened by CCP disinformation aimed at undermining U.S. credibility” |
| ◆ The Atlantics, 2024-10-25 | The shortcomings of Taiwan's military lend some validity to Trump's complaint that America's allies don't pay enough for their own defense and dump too much of the responsibility onto the United States—a burden that a second Trump administration might not be committed to bear. |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-12-31 | Without a plan, a Taiwan crisis risks undermining the foundations of American prosperity and security. As a report from a House panel concluded last year: "The United States lacks a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of conflict" with China. Imposing sweeping sanctions on China would undermine the international economic system that the United States is uniquely positioned to protect. |
| ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-12-4 | War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles "very rapidly", national security adviser J. Sullivan acknowledged that China has "the single biggest advantage", "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC" . |
| ◆ TIME, 2024-6-4 | Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc" |
| ◆ The Diplomat, 2024-11-18 | Trump's inner circle, filled with China hawks, is likely to push for increased militarization of the region and even for a proxy war in Taiwan. |
| ◆ MEMRI, 2024-10-7 |
Columbia University Professor Joseph Massad: China isn't destabilizing the region – The United States and Taiwan are; The U.S. uses Taiwan to threaten China and Ukraine to threaten Russia. |
| ◆ Reuters, 2024-11-24 | Russia says US using Taiwan to stir crisis in Asia. |
| ◆ Business Insider, 2024-11-9 | In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it. |
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China's strategy to achieve unification |
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| ◆ Brookings, 2024-9-16 | Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve unification. The PLA can subject Taiwan to various limited attacks, such as missile and air bombardment.To subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and “gray zone” military tactics... seeks to deplete the confidence of the people brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/ |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2025-1-3 | In addition to unleashing its full military power, Beijing would be expected to use a variety of economic strategies in a showdown over Taiwan. A 2023 study by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council concluded that Beijing has been more systematic in preparing such defenses than Russia was to counter Western sanctions. |
| ◆ VOX, 2024-12-16 | a majority of Taiwanese and US national security experts do not believe China currently has the capability to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, most do believe China could currently enact either a blockade or a quarantine of the island. And such an operation may prove just as effective while carrying far less risk for Beijing. |
| ◆ Politico, 2024-9-11 | Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower |
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pic. Council on Foreign Relations (Sept. 2024) |
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Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-29 Military Power - China VS. Taiwan |
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| China | Taiwan | |
| active duty forces | 2,035,000 | 170,000 |
| artillery | 9,800 | 1,200 |
| principle surface combatants | 139 | 57 |
| fighter jets | 1900 | 300 |
| bombers and attack aircraft | 450 | 0 |
| submarines | 71 | 2 |
| cfr.org/blog/taiwan-announced-record-defense-budget-it-enough-deter-china | ||
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the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, |
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| Taiwan | China | USA | Japan | Korea | Singapore | |
| Military Capability | 11th +2.1 up 21.7 | 2nd 68.1 | 1st 90.7 | 6th 27.4 | 5th | 9th |
| Resilience | 18th -5.9 down 24.7 | 3rd 70.4 | 1st | 11th | 10th | 14th |
| Defense Networks | 16th down 11.8 | 7th 23.7 |
1st 84.6 |
3rd | 4th | 5th |
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Asia's
Comprehensive Power
rankings:
1.US
2.Chn 3.Japan
4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8.
Singapore
9.Indonesia 10.Thailand 11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC) 2023 Edition |
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China vs. Taiwan Willing to fight ? |
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| China | Taiwan |
| a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ... another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites. | Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. |
| from National Interest, 2023-7-16 | |
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pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on ecosia (Berlin Germany), 2021-6-5, 2021-2-7; No.2 at 2022-3-30, 2022-3-7, 2022-1-19, 2022-1-3, 2021-5-12, 2021-4-26, 2021-3-27, 2021-3-4
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◆
NBC News, Reuters, 2024-8-31:
the use of China's tactics and strategies
against Taiwan is still limited by the natural geographical environment
of the Taiwan Strait and insufficient landing equipment and logistic
capabilities, But China is speeding up
development of a slew of new weapons, such as the H-20 bomber and
hypersonic missiles and beefing up the number of nuclear warheads,
and
China
has other options to threaten Taiwan, such as inspecting foreign cargo
ships
◆
National Interest, 2024-7-30:
An invasion would be swift and sharp, as the first Gulf War, China would likely
knock out Taiwanese radar and air/sea defense capabilities first, followed by
drops of airborne troops, including the seizure of airfields and ports. An
amphibious assault would follow. The possibility of targeted special operations
and cyber actions by embedded PLA assets in Taiwan ... Finally, an EMP attack
might happen
◆
New York
Times, 2024-7-17:
Donald J. Trump
said that Taiwan should pay the United States for defending it from
China, a remark highlighting the uncertainties — and high stakes — of
how he might handle the smoldering Taiwan Strait
dispute◆
Daily Express, 2024-7-25:
Fears that, if elected, Mr Trump would not support Taiwan in case of an attack
from China come...the Chinese army could simply shell
it without even using long-range missiles.
◆
◆ The Telegraph, 2024-5-11: Just recently Beijing manoeuvred 12 ships to within four nautical miles of Taiwan. The United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has a clear list on what you can do inside someone else's territorial waters (less than 12 nautical miles off the coast) ◆ Newsweek, 2024-5-8: Taiwan must embrace a more dynamic defensive strategy that can independently deter, or at least stall, Beijing. If China establishes a beachhead on Taiwan that can be reliably resupplied, defeat is a matter of time ◆ Asia Times, 2024-3-27 : the government has failed to make military service a viable career choice - Military service is a hard life with low pay, bad housing and no GI-Bill sort of benefits... simply isn't respected in traditional Chinese society...Taiwan's “reserve force” is shambolic and that's being charitable. There is no “territorial” or militia force, either. Taiwan also lacks a civil defense scheme. ◆ CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would also quickly spread across the globe and into cyberspace and space. There would also be real risk of a nuclear exchange.
◆ The Telegraph, 2024-1-26: The PLA is in crisis. That won't stop China invading Taiwan. the US intelligence community and Defense Department have consistently underestimated the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army and its intentions ◆ Defense News, 2024-1-25: China's military has declared it is “ready to fight” after large-scale combat exercises simulating sealing off Taiwan. ◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-24: Cato Institute expert says Taiwan's survival will hinge on repelling an amphibious invasion with asymmetric capabilities. first, to survive an initial bombardment, and second, to prevent the seizure of ports, airfields and beachheads during the initial hours of an invasion ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: For years, Taiwan eschewed investing in coastal defense and asymmetric capabilities, preferring to spend considerable sums on costly weapons platforms that would easily be outclassed by China. If belatedly, Taiwan has reversed course. Yet, the scope and scale are insufficient. Both urgency and drastic changes are required to deter, and if necessary, defend Taiwan ◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-8: As with Ukraine, a proxy war in Taiwan would be waged with “our bullets, their blood,” in the words of one Oliver North. In fact, the DPP government has already made a decisive step in the direction of turning young Taiwanese into US cannon fodder by extending the period of compulsory military service from four months to one year, beginning in 2024. That is the “blood” part. ◆ ABC Australia, 2024-1-3: As China flexes its military muscles, everyday citizens in Taiwan are preparing for war. China has more than 2 million active personnel compared to Taiwan's 170,000 troops, as well as five times as many tanks and six times as many fighter aircraft. War today might not unfold as it did in the past … nowadays, hybrid warfare blurs the lines between peacetime and wartime.
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pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 2021-6-1, 2-7-2021, 1-11-2021, 1-1-2021, 12-15-2020, 12-2-2020, 11-20-2020, 10-28-2020N; No.2 at 2022-3-30, 2021-5-12, 2021-4-30, 2021-4-26, 2021-4-18, 3-27-2021, 3-5-2021
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◆
Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues |
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| Advantages | including geography and climate. |
| Challenges |
(1)
the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a
range of military campaigns against Taiwan. (2) Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. At a societal level, it is not clear what costs — in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives — Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear. |
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◆ Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing |
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♦ CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”.
♦ Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.". |
♦
BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore
Drew Thompson:
the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict
would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast,
where submarines would be most effective in...Instead,
the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west
coast facing mainland China... The submarine is
not optimised for a counter invasion role... ♦ NewsWeek, 2023-9-29: A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in. Policy experts in the U.S. have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so。 ♦ The Diplomat, 2023-9-30: The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects. |
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pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-26-2020, 5-20-2020;
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◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-9-21: China is building a powerful military to beat America in a war over Taiwan; China is readying for war today. China's military has practiced deploying Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers; In the military realm, China's biggest threats reside in their military’s ability to launch disruptive, devastating attacks on the United States in space, across the EM spectrum, and in cyberspace. ◆ The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel ◆ The Conversation, 2023-8-16: According to some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price (Ukraine is paying a heavy price in terms of lost lives and a shattered economy) to preserve its political autonomy. ◆ The WarZone, 2023-8-16: Taiwan's arsenal of counterstrike weapons like the HF-2E would not be sufficient to outright stop an actual invasion from the mainland. ◆ The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action.
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◆ Taiwan into 'powder keg' |
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♦ 2022-7-19: Mark Esper suggests extending Taiwan's compulsory military service period to ensure combat effectiveness ♦ 2022-12-24: The US signs into law the NDAA for the fiscal year 2023, under NDAA, a war reserve stockpile of weapons is to be established in Taiwan ♦ 2022-12-27: Taiwan extended the period of compulsory military service to one year
♦
2023-3-24: Former National Security
advisor Robert O'brien says Taiwan should familiarize its people with
weapons to deter Chinese mainland |
◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-17: Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army ◆ USNI, 2023-6-7: on paper Taiwan fields one of the world’s most advanced ASCMs, but we don’t have the data on actual performed real combat.”; Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are “rumors [sic] about slow production” related to “hang-ups in the defense [sic] industrial complex” and Taiwan is “struggling to produce large numbers of anything.”; Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - a traditional navy or an asymmetric one ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-5-31: China could decide to launch a series of actions short of war — seizing one of Taiwan's small outlying islands, say, or interfering with Taiwanese shipping ... without provoking a US military response.
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changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait |
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| Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21: Effective deterrence requires credible threats to be matched with credible assurances. The G7 should make clear to Beijing it has no desire to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/sanctioning-china-in-a-taiwan-crisis-scenarios-and-risks/ Charlie Vest and Agatha Kratz | AP (Germany Berlin), 2023-6-22: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned Beijing against using force to change the status quo with Taiwan news.yahoo.com/germany-warns-china-over-taiwan-103947340.html |
| Global Times (China), 2023-6-21: Blinken said "We remain opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side". China's Foreign Ministry: the three China-US Joint Communiqués means that the US recognizes the real status quo in the Taiwan Straits, that is, there is only one China in the world, and both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China. However, the US has unilaterally attached the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances to its one-China policy, these are not consensus reached by both China and the US. The US is tampering with political commitments on one-China policy. globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1292976.shtml | |
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◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-4-25: a war over Taiwan is, in the best case, a war the U.S. may still lose... the provision of Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-air missiles to Ukraine comes as an undeniable detriment to Taiwan's defensive potential. Both might decide the outcome of the next war ◆ The Hill, 2023-4-19: The battle lines are being drawn for a war across East Asia involving Taiwan ◆ U.S. Naval War College - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system, the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-13: In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: An invasion would almost certainly begin with massive missile and rocket strikes on Taiwan. These would quickly destroy much of Taiwan’s navy, air force and air defences. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks ◆ Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief: Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan ◆ EurAsian Times, 2023-2-26: "No Boots On Ground': Majority Of US Voters' Chicken Out’ From Sending Soldiers To Taiwan To Battle China ◆ Japan Times, 2023-2-19: There is no evidence that China is in a hurry to attack Taiwan, despite a number of U.S. government and military officials citing 2027 or even 2025 as a potential deadline for forcible unification ◆ Daily Express (UK), 2023-2-17: A "proxy war" between China and the US over Taiwan could happen during the Biden presidency ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-2-17: New House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman: Ukraine is capable of fighting on their own if we give them the weapons. Taiwan cannot fight this war alone, even if we gave them the weapons. ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan ◆ US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1: The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war; it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch ◆ Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly. China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. ◆ Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan. "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade".◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26: Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence ; If Lai Ching-te (a staunch proponent of the island's independence) does win, Beijing could move quickly to invade. ◆ New York Post, 2023-1-14: the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles.
◆The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general ◆ The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to erupt，Taiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints ◆ The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion ◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28: Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024 ◆ France 24, 2022-12-26: Seventy-one warplanes deployed by China in war drills - the largest reported incursion to date ◆ Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation.
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23: ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely ◆ National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn’t Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential ◆ 1945, 2022-12-12: the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy ◆ SCMP,2022-11-3: China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification, even if US says so ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28: U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2022-10-27: A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future ◆ The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk ◆ Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue ◆ Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing ◆ The Diplomat, 2022-10-21: recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur ◆ New York Times,2022-10-17: China's leader warns of “perilous, stormy seas”ahead ◆ Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress; the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of opera tional experience ◆ New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns against international 'interference' ◆ VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War ◆ Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies. ◆ The SUN (UK),2022-10-16:an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan. ◆Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... Taiwan professor:“Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10: In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake ◆ TIME, 2022-10-5: Even without a blockade, a Chinese air and missile campaign alone could defang Taiwan's military and shut down the country's economy ◆ NY Times, 2022-10-5: If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, American ... would offer the least likelihood ...into direct conflict; Cornell prof.: The U.S. has to make clear that the U.S. doesn't have a strategic interest in having Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China
◆ Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal".◆ FoxNews, 2022-10-2: soon-to-be Secretary-General of ASEAN: China 'would not' invade Taiwan if Beijing believes it owns the island ◆ Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says ◆ CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆The Hill, 2022-9-15: The next step would be to enforce a quarantine of the island to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and slowly strangle their economy until an agreement is reached. ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2022-9-14: (US) military's most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s...This creates a window of vulnerability for Taiwan, most likely between 2024 and 2027
◆ Diplomat, 2022-9-13: the most fundamental threat Taiwan faces is to its economy and its energy system (imports nearly all of its energy) ◆ LA Times, 2022-9-11: China's leaders know their power is about to diminish, and that will make them more likely to take risks in the short run — to invade Taiwan, for example
◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-12:Xi Jinping would invade Taiwan if authorities in Taipei stop referring to their government as the Republic of China ◆ The Global and Mail (Canada), 2022-9-10: Taiwan's long-term survival prospects are much worse than Ukraine's... it would probably take Taiwan five years of defence spending at 5 per cent of GDP, ... a return to several years of conscription and large active reserves in the Israeli model ◆ Foreign Policy,2022-9-8: strategic priorities, budgets, and acquisition limitations, are preventing Taipei from laying in the critical war-reserve materiel it would need to against PLA ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-9-7: In Taiwan, many young citizens concluded that conscription was a waste of time and a tedious chore....those with political connections seek to be posted in cities rather than at the border or in the field. ◆ Bloomberg , 2022-9-7: China Invading Taiwan Is ‘Distinct Threat’◆ Weekend Australian , 2022-9-7: Best way to avoid war is to arm Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-6: Taiwan sees Bidens political-fears weakening us-strategy to counter china
◆ The Hill, 2022-9-6: none of the three governments that could begin a war over Taiwan — those in Washington, Beijing and Taipei — should see war as in its interest...Taiwan will be extremely hard for us to defend ◆ abc news, 2022-9-5: Military reserves, Civil Defense worry Taiwan as China looms ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-5: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid 'challenges from within' ◆Daily Express (UK), 2022-8-29: WW3 looming as 'no good options' remain in 'dangerous' China-US conflict over Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: America has changed,...it began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today... Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend itself ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed ◆ Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect. ◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan - have become "acceptable" - because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this becomes the new standard ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-8: China's drills near Taiwan is a sign that Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its airspace and waters ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-7: China’s leader has made it clearer than any of his predecessors that he sees unifying Taiwan with China to be a primary goal of his rule ◆ The Hill, 2022-8-6: Taiwan...too economically dependent on China to withstand an economic cold war with Beijing. ◆ full text
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-8-5: Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan... it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3: failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago. ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2022-7-26: The risks to Taiwan from Chinese aggression have gained urgency since Russia's attacks on Ukraine... a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for China to pull off in the near term. Instead, it could do so piecemeal ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait ◆The Hill , 2022-7-26: The longer the Biden administration continues delaying and stinting its support for Ukraine without enabling Kyiv to halt and reverse Russia's invasion, the more precarious both Ukraine's and Taiwan's positions become ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan — possibly by force — is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan ◆ le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan
◆ DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20: Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military reforms◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-7: Chinese diplomat says 'reunification' with Taiwan near
◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-3: these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆VOA, 2022-6-30: US Believes China Still Hoping to Take Taiwan Without Force ◆ Axios,2022-6-28: Taiwan focuses on power projection instead of defense, and lacks a well-developed security studies academic community... distrust in Taiwan between politicians and the military lingers ◆ EurAsian Times, 2022-6-27: Bonnie Glaser told Politico: the active-duty military is not willing to work with the reserve force, which is seen as insufficiently trained; there isn’t much enthusiasm among the civilians to work with the military or the military to work with civilians ◆ N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19:Taiwan is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan’s defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed... Taiwan military leaders argue that smaller weapons are not useful for standing up to China in visible ways. Long-range missiles capable of striking the mainland could deter Beijing ...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help. ◆ Guardian, 2022-6-15: Tensions heighten in Taiwan Strait as China acts to extend military operations ◆ Newsweek, 2022-6-15: China Warns of Taiwan Demise After Official Claims Missiles Can Hit Beijing ◆ Taipei Times, 2022-6-11:A survey conducted by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo showed that 73 percent of respondents believe China might take military action against Taiwan. ◆ AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says; With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japanese Prime Minister issued a stark warning at the summit: "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow". ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price...China is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe" bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq. ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-6-1: Washington fears a possible Chinese invasion by 2027. All for one: U.S. enlists its Asian allies in defense of Taiwan ◆ Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30: Putin is winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much deadlier ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-27: A 2018 congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan, citing China’s increasingly advanced capabilities and myriad U.S. logistical difficulties ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2022-5-17: US wanted Taiwan to focus on capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, air and missile defences, command and communications, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, and early- warning systems... Taipei also wants to guard against, such as Chinese incursions into its air defence identification zone or a sea blockade
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-10: James Anderson: The PRC roughly has that capability to forcibly retake the island sooner than 2027 ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4: Since the Chinese economy is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous. ◆ Washington Post, 2022-5-4: China insists... has no plans to attack the island it claims as its own. ◆ Guardian, 2022-4-24: ... waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking into conflict may well be growing ◆ Economist, 2022-4-20: the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days; Taiwan can learn ...Fighting spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe ◆ Bloomberg, 2022-4-21: Putin's Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming force ◆ Taipei Times, 2022-4-25: Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-4-18: Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut ◆ Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil - to deter America from intervening in conflict over Taiwan
◆ SCMP, 2022-4-11: Taiwan will have to rely on itself to defend the island from a mainland attack, analysts say ◆ FoxNews, 2022-4-4: "It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when" ◆ Foreign Policy, 2022-3-31: Only 2 percent of respondents (international relations experts at U.S. universities and colleges) supported direct military action against Russia compared to 18 percent in a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-3-29: Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed to upgrade Taiwan's military...many younger Taiwanese dislike conscription ◆ New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the danger for Taiwan. China has time: Any invasion of Taiwan could be years away ◆ L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: Taiwan hasn't built the kind of territorial defense force Ukraine is using to great effect right now...over much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the opposite direction: It cut the size of its regular army and reduced the training of its reserves... it will take more than five years to get there. ◆ TIME, 2022-3-18: mandatory military service ... is only four months—compared to 18 months in South Korea, and about two years in Israel and Singapore. “We only had basic training"...most analysts say that the island would not be able to stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine’s situation has sparked debate over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid ◆ Japan Times, Bloomberg, 2022-3-20: Nine in 10 Japanese people are concerned that China may invade Taiwan ◆ DW, 2022-3-15: Easton: Taiwan's military now lacks manpower and requires updated and intensified training. legislator: "we are far from ready" ◆Washington Post, 2022-3-15: The war in Ukraine could make China rethink invading Taiwan ◆ Politico, 2022-3-14: Taiwan's military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068 billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement ◆ Fox News, 2022-3-13: China warns of 'worst consequences' for any country that supports Taiwan militarily
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