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Reuters, 2023-9-28: Taiwan says" it's not likely for them (China) to do anything major to threaten Taiwan or anything so visible that the Taiwanese people understand that they are trying to intervene in our election" Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion, or should move towards building ties with China. The opposition Kuomintang has called the vote a choice between “war and peace”, implying that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s hostility towards China will provoke it to attack.  China...narratives that portray America, not China, as the island's biggest threat.   Washington Examiner, 2023-9-26: Americans are increasingly concerned over tensions between China and Taiwan, with more than 80% reporting the problem is "somewhat" or "very serious" for the U.S.   full text

  Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

 CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”.

 Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.".


BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore Drew Thompson:  the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China... The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
NewsWeek, 2023-9-29:  A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.  Policy experts in the U.S.  have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30:  The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.
 

The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China has plans to mobilize hundreds or thousands of civilian merchant ships, fishing boats, Coast Guard vessels, and anything else capable of ferrying infantry units across the South China Sea, according to a paper by Lonnie Henley,...In such volumes it would be impossible for even an advanced military to defeat them all  19FortyFive, 2023-9-21: China is building a powerful military to beat America in a war over Taiwan; China is readying for war today. China's military has practiced deploying Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers     full text

  Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues
news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues

Advantages  including geography and climate.
Challenges (1)  the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan.
(2) 
Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  At a societal level, it is not clear what costs in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear
.

The Hill, 2023-9-19: The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan and the rules-based international order  1945, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon) China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces  Military, 2023-9-13: We lost the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing our frailties, Xi will persist in pressuring Taiwan to dissolve from within, while employing military provocations to test America's martial resolve ... By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan    Daily Express, 2023-9-9: China has reached the "height of its power" which may prompt Beijing to launch an invasion of Taiwan, former National Security Advisor John Bolton exclusively told Daily Express US; the United States was not ready ... - something which Beijing would see as an “opportunity”  American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029.  Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux.   AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation.  Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island.  No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-30: Ramaswamy says after America’s rapid semiconductor renaissance, Taiwan can fend for itself.  I am not going to send our sons and daughters to die over that conflict. Daily Express, 2023-8-27: China sparks major war fears as dozens of aircraft and vessels either crossed the median line of the sensitive Taiwan Strait or breached Taiwan's air defence identification zone in a major escalation. Former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Matt Shoemaker told Daily Express US the chances new military packages will repel an invasion are low. The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel Washington Examiner, 2023-8-22: China boasts record-high military recruitment, if military aid (Taiwan war) is needed, America's sagging recruitment numbers could be a problem.   full text

Taiwan presidency -  Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition)

BBC, 2023-8-29 Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.
Economist, 2023-8-29 The opposition would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect.
Washington Post, 2023-8-28 Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.
Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25 analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics.
Reuters, 2023-8-28 Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of office.
AP, The Hill, 2023-8-28 Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency. He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote,“I will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”.  He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote

 

 


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 Daily Express, 2023-8-20:  Taiwan under threat as China sends fighter jets and warships with nations on brink of war   The Conversation, 2023-8-16: According to  some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price (Ukraine is paying a heavy price in terms of  lost lives and a shattered economy) to preserve its political autonomy. New York Times, news brief 2023-8-14: A Taiwanese presidential contender (Lai Ching-te) walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future.  Daily Mail, 2023-8-18: China rehearses invasion of Taiwan with troops storming 'sea defences' in chilling wargames - while Beijing and Russia stage joint naval exercises in the Pacific the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly. New York Times, 2023-8-8: For the most part, Taiwanese people seem to be at ease with their Chinese heritage. In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood.   The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action Washington Post, 2023-7-29: U.S. to provide up to $345 million in military aid to Taiwan;  a defense analyst in Taiwan was skeptical of the aid package and pointed to “serious delays in recent years in the delivery of numerous U.S. arms sales” to Taiwan. Bloomberg, 2023-7-29: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines have said they don't see an effort by China to seize Taiwan by force as imminent Washington Examiner, 2023-7-24:  China and Russia train together to sink US submarines the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side.   Financial Times, 2023-7-23: Washington is reducing some long-term deployments in the Indo-Pacific,...the US's decision to help Ukraine only with weapons and the wavering of some European countries about support for Kyiv do not bode well for Taiwan   Daily Express, 2023-7-23: Japan says:  If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan...the government would need to first secure the support of the population before intervening.   full text

Fox News, 2023-7-28  
The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler

BBC, 2023-7-21: Much of the #MeToo focus is still on sexual harassment, and "large-scale exposure" of sexual assault is yet to happen, that can only happen with more resources legal and counselling support from the state.   The government must extend the statute of limitations for prosecuting sexual harassment cases, which is currently six months.   ResponsibleStatecraft.org, 2023-7-17: War with China over Taiwan? Don't expect US allies (Japan, Australia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) to join   Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the US will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will enable Australia to conduct operations such as anti-submarine warfare against China's subsurface fleet. Similarly, Japan will acquire counterstrike capabilities, which will include purchasing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These would allow Japan to target China's missile launchers and command-and-control sites that would be key to an invasion of Taiwan. But there is uncertainty over not just the kind of support allies would provide, but over whether they would provide any at all.    Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”  West Point, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war, and  highlights a fundamental component of warfare that applies to an attempted Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan—that the war will be won or lost by land forces on the ground.  NEWS Australia, 2023-7-12:  Taiwan considers reviving nuclear power plants due to the threat of China   full text

National Interest, 2023-7-16    -   Willing to fight ?

China Taiwan
a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ...  another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites.  Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.

  Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: Taiwan's dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield"    le Monde, 2023-7-5:  many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, the professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern ◆  NPR, 2023-7-3:  More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation.  ResponsibleStateCraft.org, 2023-7-3: Taiwan's total trade increased to $907 billion in 2022 from $508.4 billion in 2016. While 39 percent of Taiwanese exports went to China and Hong Kong last year    Economist, 2023-6-29:   if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little.   National Interest, 2023-6-29:  it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward...   TIME, 2023-6-26:  Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves  The Diplomat, 2023-6-27:  Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan’s military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. it could require  potentially several months – for the US to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to ... fight a major contingency in East Asia.  NPR.org, 2023-6-22:  the Council on Foreign Relations says that the U.S. and China are 'drifting toward a war' over Taiwan.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-22: Can sanctions threat deter china from invading Taiwan? The answer, according to a new study, is a potential "yes" - but with big caveats  full text

 Bulgari apologizes ──  

CNN, 2023-7-12 Bulgari has apologized for listing Taiwan and China separately on some of its websites, after Chinese social media users accused ...People's Daily meanwhile questioned why the brand had not published similar statements to its English-language accounts on Twitter and Instagram. In 2019, Versace apologized implying Taiwan's independence... aol.com/bulgari-apologizes-taiwan-listing-amid-064439595.html

  FoxNews, 2023-6-19: "The Biden Administration is acting needy and desperate" ,"They want to talk more than China does, and China knows it. So they are making us grovel. "   BBC, Independent, 2023-6-20:  the drugging of preschool children in Taiwan have sparked widespread alarm on the island.  Some teachers at the kindergarten gave children phenobarbital to “make them more compliant”. A rally demanded transparency from the government.  The Diplomat, 2023-6-17:  Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army SCMP, 2023-6-17: Washington believes Beijing is leaning towards the stick rather than the carrot because of its increasingly tough stance, analysts warn Bloomberg, 2023-6-15: US Presses Taiwan Opposition Candidate Over China Policies; Washington will want to be assured that KMT's Hou has “a clear stance on China and international policy..."    National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States   full text

#MeToo in Taiwan

 The Guardian, 2023-6-8:  The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.  theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk
 Washington Post, 2023-6-7:  The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang.  people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment.    msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH    Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin
Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7: Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang  Wenxin Fan
 Bloomberg, 2023-6-7: Taiwan president apologizes twice in week for #MeToo allegations, Tsai: "We've also seen such cases are everywhere, not only in the DPP or other political parties..." 
Women's rights

Taipei Times, 2023-6-12: Taiwanese government actively courts Chinese tourists by the hundred thousand, immigration authorities hand out insult after insult to people whose skins are a bit too brown... besides, over 1,000 nurses, have come from Hong Kong and are unable to obtain residency to work  Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1:  Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out?  The Guardian, 2023-5-24:  Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai  has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen  The Guardian, 2023-5-22: over 90% of the world's semiconductors are made in the place many US officials think could be the site of the next global conflict: Taiwan. Fortune, 2023-5-21: Warren Buffett  told Japan'Nikkei that the threat of war was a “consideration” in dumping the bulk of the stake in TSMC. Musk told the Financial Times that a conflict over Taiwan is inevitable. His comments did not go over well in Taiwan Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine   full text

Reuters, 2023-5-20 "war is not an option", Taiwan president says
Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1  Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out?
Washington Examiner, 2023-5-19 The top-line fact in the weapons to Ukraine or Taiwan debate Taiwan's defense spending remains absurdly inadequate. It's also feasible that Taiwan may elect a new government in 2024 that lacks sufficient resolve to fight China. In contrast, Ukraine has shown not just the resolve to fight against overwhelming odds, but the spirit to win.

New York Times, 2023-5-17: As China looms over Taiwan's Presidential race, the opposition picks a moderate Hou Yu-ih, trying to appeal to voters wary of Beijing New York Times, 2023-5-11:  Taiwan's world-dominating microchip sector was built by its strategic asset, TSMC's skilled employees. But a demographic crisis, demanding work culture and flagging interest threaten its lead DW (Germany), 2023-5-12: While Taiwan has historically limited its missile forces to defensive assets, CSIS indicated the island has started to develop missiles designed for strike missions.  Washington Times, 2023-5-9: Taipei unnerved by investor fears, apocalyptic rhetoric, Taiwanese officials are trying to tone down alarmist comments made by U.S. investment gurus and policymakers about the risks of a clash with China, "the fearmongering talk coming out of Washington isn't helping" Business Insider, 2023-5-3: In first-of-its-kind drill, US Army special operators train to defend Taiwan against Chinese attack, while the "ultimate backstop" remains America's nuclear capabilities, according to the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy   Daily Express, UK, 2023-5-3: WW3 fears as Taiwan issues a threatening statement about how it intends to handle imminent China invasion CNN, 2023-4-20:  complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military The Register, 2023-4-22: Taiwan asks US if it could chill out on the anti-China rhetoric "We're trying to run a chip business here"    New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other   Brookings, 2023-4-15:  Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens  Nikkei Asia, 2023-4-7: Taiwan's choice: peace or war, ex-president says after China trip  FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid   The Guardian, 2023-3-28: (ex-president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of president Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington   USNI, 2023-3-21: U.S. Needs Air Superiority, Ship-Killing Weapons to Defend Taiwan, Pacific Air Forces Commander Says... he doesn’t think China wants to engage in this fight. Economist, 2023-3-9: An invasion would almost certainly begin with massive missile and rocket strikes on Taiwan. These would quickly destroy much of Taiwan’s navy, air force and air defences. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks ◆ FoxNews, 2023-3-7: Why does the U.S. keep on professing the maintenance of regional peace and stability while covertly formulating a plan for the destruction of Taiwan?" Chinese foreign minister Qin asked.  FoxNews, 2023-3-7: House China committee chair says Xi ‘deadly serious’ about invading Taiwan Economist, 2023-3-6:  Taiwan has not made up its mind how or even whether to defend itself...yet numb to China's threat. Foreign Policy, 2023-3-2:  Should China launch an all-out invasion, however, Taiwan would likely succumb within a few days once its air force of just 470 combat aircraft was overwhelmed... USNI, 2023-3-2:  Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.  Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ...  ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-27: the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods   Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief:  Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan  WSJ, Fox News, 2023-2-23: The U.S. is preparing to send 100 to 200 troops to Taiwan for training amid rising tensions with China; The Wall Street Journal described the planned troop increase in the coming months as the largest deployment of American forces in Taiwan in decades.   Washington Examiner, 2023-2-23:  Taiwan views Russia's war in Ukraine as a fate that could await it if it doesn't take the proper steps needed to defend its democratic island nation from a potential Chinese invasion. TIME, 2023-2-23: Winning the tech war with China depended entirely upon persuading U.S. allies—particularly Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Japan—to follow the U.S. lead and adopt similar export control regulations   Aljazeera, 2023-2-23: CIA Director William Burns recently said although Xi was likely “unsettled” by Russia’s failures in Ukraine, he had still told China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-22Our best chance of preventing an invasion of Taiwan, and of essentially preventing World War III, is to put actual hard power on Taiwan  Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan  (CBS  2023-2-19: China considering providing "lethal support" to aid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Blinken says  Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-2-12: the unpredictable nature of ADIZ violations is intended to keep the status quo around Taiwan unstable and ambiguous in order to facilitate strategic surprise CNN, 2023-2-9: More US firms in Taiwan say they're seeing 'significant disruption' due to rising tension with China - elevated concern from global headquarters, increased shipping, insurance or financial costs, as well as staff anxiety New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan     Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan.  "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade". Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence ; If  Lai Ching-te (a staunch proponent of the island's independence) does win, Beijing could move quickly to invade.   The Hill, 2023-1-23: the U.S. defense industrial base is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war...How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario? Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy" WSJ, 2023-1-23: Taiwan is much more important (than Ukraine) to our security and prosperity. Any tanks we can spare should go to Taipei.  New York Times, 2023-1-21: Glaser warns that symbolic victories may not be worth the cost of provoking China ... "But the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism" said Dan Blumenthal USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia AFP, 2023-1-21:  Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan  CNN, 2023-1-20:  In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. New York Post, 2023-1-14:  the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control.  Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN, 2023-1-9: CSIS War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries   full text

Biden's State of the Union speech - Taiwan war

The Hill, 2023-2-9 Biden's State of the Union speech on Feb. 7 buried these two clear and present dangers simultaneously confronting national security. When is the Biden administration going to recognize that we are essentially in the equivalent of WWIII?
Washington Examiner, 2023-2-1 State of Our Union: Biden's China policy tolerates excessive risks    The Biden administration is playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war.
The Hill, 2023-2-14  In his first State of the Union address in March 2022, President Biden, proclaimed, “In the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment";...  if China invaded Taiwan, would the international order really collapse? Would authoritarianism really spread throughout the globe? Is it in the U.S. interest to come to Taiwan’s defense? Are we prepared to send Americans into harm's way?

 ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island.  Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game Asia Nikkei, 2023-1-6: reserves, supposedly 2 million strong, are a paper force, with "no way whatsoever" to reinforce existing units in combat The American SPECTATOR, 2023-1-5: coming crisis over Taiwan is now popularly treated as a foregone conclusion...What is more likely is that China will wait a while longer, probably until the early 2030s.    Forbes, 2023-1-2: Economics, often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride (questions of sovereignty and  the hyper-sensitivities of China's leadership) The Hill, 2023-1-3: America's ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan gets more dangerous by the day  Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to eruptTaiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints

General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025?    The Hill, 2023-2-2, Fox News, 2023-2-4, USA Today, 2023-2-3

US generals, officials, experts, law-makers China invade Taiwan by ?
CIA Director William Burns Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027
Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command by 2027
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Jan. 2023) China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by 2027
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday (Oct., 2022) Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or a potentially a 2023 window
Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Oct., 2022) on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner (July, 2022) “only a matter of time”
Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command 2025
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the Center for a New American Security, before 2027,  a crisis or incident that could spiral out of control
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.”
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) 2025
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.)  the 2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but “highly unlikely,”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey 2025 ,  a“bad judgment”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Nov. 2022)  it will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
news.yahoo.com/general-memo-spurs-debate-could-110000282.html

The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people  Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict.  Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024 Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still New York Times, 2022-12-26: With Record Military Incursions, China Warns Taiwan and U.S.71 military aircraft buzzed the airspace near Taiwan   Politico, 2022-12-27:  The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won’t even consider invading Taiwan. Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent.  if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆  War on the Rocks,2022-12-19:  Biden's National Security Strategy of October 2022 tilted toward strategic ambiguity. ◆  CNN , 2022-12-17:  The population pool is decreasing, so Taiwan is actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs   National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn't Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential 1945, 2022-12-12:  the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury  The WEEK (UK), 2022-12-4 : A RAND Corporation study predicted that a yearlong war would cut the U.S.'s gross domestic product by 5 to 10 percent — but it would slash China's by 25 to 35 percent.  Economist, 2022-11-29:  many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China   Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.   full text

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China

WSJ, 2022-12-27 a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP2022-12-27 The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however,  only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27  Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27 It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant   washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28 The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
 
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27 "a deplorable decision" made under US pressure  /   the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml    12-27

 

High-tech. persecutions in Taiwan   ( privacy is no longer sacrosanct

 

surveillance in Europe

An increased number of oversight bodies in EU Member States now monitors the work of intelligence services.  About one month ago, a historic vote in the European Parliament: dangerous AI surveillance (real-time remote biometric identification in public spaces, emotion recognition  ( face analysis ) ) banned.

 

surveillance in the U.S.

Freedom House (2019)  : At the very least, social media surveillance must come under greater oversight.  The use of such programs must be transparent... The survival of democracy requires vibrant public spaces, both offline and online, where individuals can... without fear of constant surveillance.

Washington DC based Epic.org: The unchecked expansion of surveillance systems is one of the greatest threats to privacy and civil liberties.  Abuses of surveillance technology are not only unjust, they're dangerous.

The concerns in the US or Europe are basically about people’s emails, online chats, internet browsing histories, and information about social media activity or  face analysis  in public spaces, etc

As for mind control, and electromagnetic attacks the civilians in Taiwan, those are not only violation of Privacy Act (Taiwan does not have a Privacy Act ), but also committing serious crimes.

However,
In Taiwan, it is sort of a "Black box"
   ──   
Global Times (2022-12-19) says that - There are forces on the island of Taiwan who are mentally controlling the Taiwan people.  

Taiwan has not rebutted its "sworm enemy's" allegation for more than half years, which is nothing other than giving a tacit consent to it.

Till now, Taiwan Intel. still refuse to declassify and open persecution files of 50 years ago, are they willing to open the public the crimes they committed in recent years (if any) ?

Star War

 

Oversight

In the US,
PRISM receives independent oversight from the federal Gov. executive, judicial and legislatives branches. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM)
In
EU Member States, they increased the number of oversight bodies to monitor the work of intelligence services
 

  Can Taiwan make it ?
Each time Taiwan's Intel. or dark forces use any of high-tech. weapons (e.g.,
electromagnetic attacks, mind controlling, etc) to harm or repress or abuse any of Taiwanese people,  will they record their operation on files ?  Taiwan needs a mechanism for great oversight and legal actions.

 

Executive

  Judicial  

  Legislatives

Economist (2023-5-31) says the gov. Executive Yuan  (the ruling party) has an image problem at home; they have been criticized as immoral and rotten (chinatimes.com/opinion/20230602004779-262101?chdtv   , udn.com/news/story/7338/7179278?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate    udn.com/news/story/7338/7183270?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate   udn.com/news/story/7338/7180885) Only 32.8% of the Taiwanese people trust the judges. (National Chung-Cheng Univ., 2023-2-13) The opposition legislators have huge difficulty in asking for any files (China Times, 2021-6-18 editorial)

 

  Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.  Bloomberg, 2022-11-26: Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections DW (Germany), 2022-11-26: China said the result shows that "mainstream public opinion in the island is for peace, stability and a good life ◆Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection   Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023?  Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas  Fortune, 2022-11-19:  U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-22: In Taiwan, a Shaky Status Quo Prevails; The people here have little desire either to yield to Beijing or to provoke a war Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14:  For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan ...The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China's goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system   full text

  Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

New York Times, 2022-12-6 In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology  nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html
Financial Times, 2022-12-12 TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that  TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes  ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9
CNN, 2022-12-9 Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’  /  TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US.  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html 
Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly.    finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
TIME, 2022-10-5 Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation.  time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/
New York Times, 2022-9-9 Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times, 2022-8-29 Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it.  Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
 National Interest, 2022-5-15 Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China
VOA News, 2021-5-10 Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.  
Fox News, 2022-8-26  Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue
The Atlantic, 2022-10-3 The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of semiconductor components.  Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution.  theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/  
New York Times, 2022-1-25 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia.  Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States.  nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
 CBS News, 2022-9-25 Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

 
Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips /
 
BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021

Taiwan S. Korea China Other
65% 18% 5% 12%

news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

 
 
 

      
  pic.:
  No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, No. 1 or top 2 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-12, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-10-6, 2022-9-11, 2022-8-20, 2022-8-13, 2022-8-7, 2022-6-25, 2022-5-23, 2022-4-16, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-3, 2022-1-30, 2022-1-12, 2022-1-1, 2021-12-10


  
No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on swisscows ( Switzerland search engine  ), 2023-6-22, 10-1-2020, 8-13-2020



   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on Mocrosoft Bing, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-12, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-31, 2022-10-23,  2022-10-10, 2022-10-6, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11, 2022-9-5,
2022-8-24,  2022-8-13, 2022-8-7, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1,2022-6-25, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-8, 2022-5-30, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-6

 

CNN, 2022-11-13: Biden's repeated statements on the American obligation to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion have done little to lower the temperature.◆Washington Post, 2022-11-13: Congress seeks to arm Taiwan quickly before the bullets start flying Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition  NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Taiwan is the top issue. Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis  is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war Washington Post, 2022-11-10: Beijing might also resort to force to stem what it sees ... a growing Taiwan-centric identity — as well as deepening U.S.-Taiwan security ties   DW (Germany), 2022-11-8: Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline on Taiwan "reunification" Washington Times, 2022-11-8:  It would take at least a decade to design and build new types of ships and aircraft to counter China's threats... US Forces in the Indo-Pacific   may not be able to defend Taiwan successfully today Newsweek, 2022-11-8: Beijing's forces have "a lot of work to do" before attempting what would be one of the most difficult military campaigns in modern history National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan ◆ USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade   The Atlantic, 2022-11-7: Because Taiwan is an island, it will be difficult to resupply in the event of hostilities; Taiwan needs support now  ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy FoxNews, Reuters, Hill,Vice, 2022-10-31: US to Put Nuclear-Capable B52s in Australia as Taiwan Invasion Fears Grow   Fortune, 2022-10-30: China's Xi Jinping now has 'unlimited power' and could use Taiwan as a distraction from 'internal problems'    full text

TaiwanPlus, 2023-3-6: A poll

Voice of America, 2022-11-23:  "black gold"-"heijin." Corruption in Local Politics (elections)

 

  "Taiwan's midterms" election

CNN, 2022-11-27: Taiwan's President billed midterms as all about China. The pro-independence DPP's losses come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – as a way to send a message against Beijing's rising bellicosity toward the island.   edition.cnn.com/2022/11/27/asia/taiwan-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.   Taiwan democracy

  DPP-friendly mass media FTV (民視, 2022-11-28, 2022-11-27; ftvnews.com.tw/video/detail/h0489vFQzf4,  youtube.com/watch?v=2Nn4iEsCHGA, etc ) analyzed that one main factor causing DPP drubbed in local vote is war fears growing. Reuters, 2022-11-27: " Taiwan president strategy 'resist China and defend Taiwan' backfires".

WSWS.org, 2022-12-1: Taiwan currently has the second-highest CovID-19 deaths per million.  While economic and social issues were major factors in the election, the result also reflects real fears about Taiwan being transformed into a US pawn for a war with China  wsws.org/no/articles/2022/12/01/bqmc-d01.html
 

CNN, 2022-10-27:  A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future Washington Post, 2022-10-28: Taiwan, missiles and spying set to be China’s priorities under new Xi term WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28:U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan   SCMP, 2022-10-30: Tsai administration accused of stalling decision due to plan's unpopularity with young voters; Better training needed if Taiwan extends mandatory military service, experts say US News, 2022-10-27:  Russia's Sechin Says U.S. attempts to create its own complex microchip industry showed that "Taiwan's return to its native harbour" was "on schedule"   The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk Voice of America, 2022-10-22:  Analysts say even though Beijing doesn’t want to go to war to reunify the two sides, it may feel forced to do so if the current trend of U.S.-Taiwan relations continues New York Times, 2022-10-20:  The longer, written version of Xi's speech also stated that China has strengthened its “strategic initiative for China’s complete reunification,” suggesting greater urgency for its future plans   Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur BBC,  2022-10-18: China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, Blinken says, Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable ◆  New York Times, 2022-10-19:  the Chinese leader is unlikely to seek military conflict, either to divert attention from domestic challenges or to act before China's power peaks. CNBC, 2022-10-18: Political watchers say the speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress;  the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of operational experience  New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping (at CCP Congress) warns against international 'interference'......China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — 'strategic patience full text

VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War USNI news, 2022-10-18:  China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027  NPR, 2022-10-18: there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic unification Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies.  The SUN (UK),2022-10-16: an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan. TIME, 2022-10-11: Defending far-off Taiwan ...is about defending Americans' security, liberties, and prosperity Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... “Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake CBS News,2022-10-9: while much of the world thought an invasion might be imminent, polls showed that a majority of Taiwanese think that is unlikely any time soon, if ever..."This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade" ◆ NY Times, 2022-10-5:  the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal". CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy  Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says◆ The Global and Mail (Canada), 2022-9-10: Taiwan's long-term survival prospects are much worse than Ukraine's... it would probably take Taiwan five years of defence spending at 5 per cent of GDP, ... a return to several years of conscription and large active reserves in the Israeli model◆ NY Times,2022-9-10: Drones -the latest front in China's mounting campaign of intimidation and psychological warfare     New York Times, 2022-9-9: The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆  abc news, 2022-9-5: Taiwan's weaknesses on that front, chiefly in two areas: its reserves and civilian defense force.◆ NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action   NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies.◆ SCMP, 2022-8-21: PLA adopts nuclear deterrence to stop foreign intervention on Taiwan: analysts full text

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan   politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html
VICE, 2022-9-28:  no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA  vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

◆ SCMP, 2022-8-23: Beijing's sorties across the median line responded to Taiwan's "diplomatic salami" ; Taiwan was also inching away from the status quo with its history textbooks for schoolchildren downplaying a China-centric view of history on the island NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan     full text

CBS, 2022-9-18:  Biden "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"

The Guardian, 2022-9-21 the president's remarks are provocative to Beijing without providing security to Taiwan or the USBiden is conveying anxiety rather than confidence  ... theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/21/biden-taiwan-comments-china-war-independence
DW (Germany), 2022-9-19 scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .   lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous",  this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 “Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence — U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea will almost certainly be made more uneasy... risks pulling them into a war    msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
 France 24 (France), 2022-9-19  most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approachmsn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19 Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19 Expert Bonnie Glaser: China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans, Prof. Lev Nachman: The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55
Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23 At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that  chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html
Modern Diplomacy.eu, 2022-2-25 Under the Budapest Memorandum, the US and UK promised to ensure Ukraine's security, geographical integrity and sovereignty, but, the world has seen that both the US and UK have not fulfilled their promise.  moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/25/ukraine-is-betrayed-by-the-us-and-uk/
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet  /  The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical, but it’s a majorly consequential hypothetical that now includes a firm commitment — whether that firm commitment is technically official policy or not    washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy  ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill.  China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said.   globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml 
The Conversation  (Australia),
2022-9-20
so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict.    news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html
 CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...  Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html  
Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-
20
wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously,  two key concerns here. (1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in face of the existential threat it faces. (2) It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw
 Politico, 2022-9-19 The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said. politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658
Washington Post, 2022-9-19 Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors with a stronger set of legislative instructions washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/
 

 

   
  
No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on Yahoo (Taiwan), 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-10-6, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-20, 2022-8-14, 2022-8-7, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-9 ;   pic.  : No.1 "comment Taiwan" (Chinese version) on Yahoo Taiwan , 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-12, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-22, 2022-10-6, 2022-9-20  

 

          
  
No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on ecosia (Berlin Germany), 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-12, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-22, 2022-10-10, 2022-10-6, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11, 2022-8-20, 2022-8-14, 2022-8-7, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-7, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-22, 2022-3-17, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-6, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2021-11-11, 2021-10-23, 2021-10-8, 2021-10-1, 2021-9-27, 2021-9-19, 2021-9-7, 2021-8-22, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-27, 2021-6-1, 2021-5-9, 2021-5-1, 2021-4-14, 3-23-2021, 3-8-2021, 2-20-2021, 1-19-2021, 10-1-2020;   pic. left: This websites-group was ranked No.1 by keyword "Taiwan comments"  on Ecosia of Germany, 2023-1-21, 2022-12-13, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-14, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2022-1-30, 2022-1-26

 


pic. :
This websites-group was ranked No.1 or top by keyword "Taiwan comments"  on Microsoft Bing, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-12, 2022-11-22, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-14,  2022-9-11, 2022-8-24, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-17, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-21, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-14, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2022-2-5, 2022-1-31, 2022-1-28, 2022-1-25, 2022-1-20, 2022-1-15, 2022-1-12;No.2 at 2022-7-18

 

 

 

 

 

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The ROC on Taiwan, has its own constitution, independently elected president and military forces, However, Taiwan's image was tarnished or damaged for having benefits by any means, and having principal human rights problems, including:

Ethics of Taiwan politicians :  New Yorker (2022-11-21):  When the Chinese test-fired the ballistic missiles, Tsai Ing-wen didn’t tell the public that they flew over the island; that became known only after it was announced by Japanese leaders. When a Chinese drone flew into Taiwan's airspace, Tsai Ing-wen's government reacted with similar reserve... the government looks like it doesn't know what it's doing,” al jazeera, 2022-5-30:  Taiwan legislature erupts in violence over "secret expenses" billKMT lawmakers try to block bill they say could be used to overturn ex-President Chen Shui-bian’s corruption conviction   Guardian, 2021-7-12: China accused Taiwan has rejected China's offers as fake altruism. ... putting politics above its people United Daily, 3-11-2021, editorial: smear, fragmentation, low dirty means ... Pan Green's propaganda campaign already beyond the critical point of morality. udn.com/news/story/7338/5309442  China Times, 3-12-2021: Ruling party ignoring bottom line of morality is grief of the country.  The Liberty Times, editorial (7-21-2020) reports only 2.3% Taiwanese politicians are trustworthy and have professional ethics, according to a survey half year ago,  56% Taiwanese note elected representatives (lawmakers, councilman, etc) care their own interest, only 9.3% think they care "national interest".  Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports:  In a major speech in January 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.   However, Taiwan's government was tight-lipped about this ultimatum, so that even famous commentator and analyst  know nothing about it, otherwise pro-Independence Tsai I. W. may not easily continue in presidential office in Jan. 2020, because, according to National Interest (6-16-2020): more than 60.3 percent of the respondents opposed Taiwan's independence if it is followed by China’s military invasion...   Taiwanese personality

●  democracy : Economist, 2022-11-29: many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai’s refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China ... Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.   US Country Reports on Human Rights Practices released at 2022-4-12 :  In 2020 presidential and legislative elections, President Tsai Ing-wen won re-election,...there were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties.    al jazeera, 2022-5-30: Taiwan legislature erupts in violence over "secret expenses" bill KMT lawmakers try to block bill they say could be used to overturn ex-President Chen Shui-bian’s corruption conviction. United Daily(聯合報) , 2022-5-9, editorial:  Taiwan's news reports seem to be free, but in recent years, the speech market has tended to be "Homogeneity" (單一化); particularly, the state apparatus controls the media very deeply USA Country Reports on Human Rights practices,  2021-3-30: There were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties (KMT and DPP) in Presidential election.  Economist EIU Democracy Index 2019 shows Taiwan is "Flawed democracy", overall score is lower than 2015's and 2016's, the scores of "political culture", "political participation" are low (5.63, 6.11).  <DW> of Germany (Chinese edition, 12-25-2020) and <RFI> of France (Chinese edition, 12-27-2020) both quoted <Yazhou Zhoukan > (亞洲周刊) criticizing Taiwan's new democratic authoritarianism.  N.Y. Times  12-3-2019:  soft underbelly of Taiwanese politics: patronage networks.  they continue to allow community leaders, farmers’ associations and even organized-crime figures to buy votes.  New York Times, 1-11-2020: Taiwan’s young and vibrant, if messy at times, democratic society.  <China Times> 2-26-2020, editorial: more and more uncontrolled admin. power and withered legislative power, freedom of speech was suppressed by admin. and judicial power at all levels, ...as for political culture, partisan, stand and ideology matter.  <Foreign Policy>, 2015: Taiwan politics belongs to mega-corporations (not the people) and is controlled by the political parties.  Apple Daily, editorial, 12-14-2019: Taiwan gov. shows authoritarianism political culture, ignoring and being hostile to those critics.   Apple Daily, editorial, 12-7-2019:  in this bad election morality age, Taiwan president becomes a low threshold, min. qualification criteria position, and a laughingstock.  <UDN> editorial,12-6-2018: Taiwan's democracy exists in name only ...;  <United Daily News>, editorial opinion, 6-23-2019The operation of democracy usually strays off most public-opinions, big-data became a sharp-weapon for politicians to manipulate the will of the people ... fail to solve the adverse situation of reversing democracy;   <United Daily News>, Opinion, 3-7-2017 Now it seems hard to keep Taiwan's skin-deep democracy ... the people's "livelihood" was sacrificed for politics ... <United Daily> editorial 1-8-2020, <UDN> editorial (聯合報社論) 11-14-2019/Taiwan's democracy turns into grave (民主設計的良意,如今變成私欲墳場 https://udn.com/news/story/11321/4163629)  democracy & freedom

 freedom of speech  : US Country Reports on Human Rights Practices released at 2023-3-20 : Reporters faced the threat of legal action under the liberal libel laws.  US Country Reports on Human Rights Practices released at 2022-4-12 : CTi News was forced off the air after the National Communications Commission declined to renew its broadcast license. Opposition politicians and some academics and commentators claimed the decision was politically motivated retaliation for CTi News’ criticism of the ruling party.