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War On The Rocks, 2024-2-22:  the destruction of squadrons of fighter planes and ships would harm Taiwan's ability to resist by tanking civilian morale in the opening days of the war...  If Taiwan's military is unable to defeat a PLA invasion force at sea, or on the shore, it will be necessary to “deny in depth” using a host of cheap and man-portable weapons as well as a flexible and survivable command system.  Toward that end, Lee also suggests a “territorial defense force” of mobilized civilians

  
  full text

Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-20       foreignaffairs.com/scared-strait  brief

Raymond Kuo, Michael A. Hunzeker, Mark A. Christopher GLASER, WEISS, AND CHRISTENSEN reply
(They) argue that Washington and Taiwan are not doing enough to assure Beijing of their intentions, in the process undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.... providing more assurances will simply embolden Beijing to continue its threatening behavior.  Conditional, credible consequences are now essential to encouraging a less bellicose Chinese policy...when deterrence is needed against a determined and capable rival, assurances that are not reciprocated can quickly become concessions. we did not advocate an “assurance first” strategy that offers “concessions” to appease Beijing... the new military measures we think are needed for deterrence will be less effective if Beijing believes they are aimed at buttressing a unilateral assertion of independence by Taiwan or ... an alliance... China can attack out of fear.  They may believe that Taiwan can safely assert permanent sovereign independence as long as there is sufficient military might in place to dissuade Beijing from attacking. If so, they are hardly alone, but we strongly disagree.

 

CNN, 2024-2-19: China ramps up patrols near Taiwan's outlying islands following death of Chinese fishermen.  The patrols are likely to put Chinese coast guard vessels in closer proximity to their Taiwanese counterparts, potentially raising the risk of miscalculation and conflict. Financial Times, 2024-2-19: China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen just off the Chinese coast Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: A war over the island could easily cause a global depression.   A Chinese seizure of Taiwan could trigger a race among nations to develop their own nuclear arsenals as U.S. security guarantees lost credibility DW, 2024-2-16: Elbridge Colby: Taiwan's military preparation has "lagged behind the scale of the threat" despite some incremental progress. "Not really doing anything near what it would need to do to make itself more defensible" borders on "vaguely suicidal behavior"   CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity,  stability, rather than debates over Taiwan's sovereignty are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world  War On The Rocks , 2024-2-12: the military balance of power has shifted decisively, enabling an amphibious invasion from a capabilities standpoint in the not-too-distant future, while prospects of peaceful unification have faded. As such, it is now something of a conventional wisdom that a Chinese invasion has become more likely than not.   Taiwan's armed forces should instead prioritize the acquisition, production, and employment of mines, drones, and missiles. Mines are likely Taiwan's best way to “buy time” with minimal risk   Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.  Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the US has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to decide how to respond. TIME , 2024-2-9: In an event of invasion, the first 48 hours are extremely important, because that’s the window within which China will take advantage of its geographic proximity, and it will take some time before the American Navy Indo-Pacific Command can respond to a major contingency,  “That's where the Philippines comes in.” Newsweek, 2024-2-8: US Army special forces as a permanent arrangement train Taiwan troops in Penghu, Kinmen and Taoyuan; the permanent presence of American forces on the island was considered a possible trigger for a cross-strait shooting war Reuters, 2024-2-6: If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership; Stopping that would require rapid mobilisation -  but more than two million former conscripts receive no ongoing further training    New York Times, 2024-2-5 briefing: China's expanding nuclear arsenal - The weapons could also shape the future of Taiwan — if China gained confidence that it could use their existence to limit Western intervention in any conflict  National Interest, 2024-2-2:  hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.     full text

 

   Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

  Taiwan China Japan Korea Singapore
Comprehensive Power No.14 15.2 points 2nd 3rd 7th 8th
Economic capability 8th, 13.0 2nd  87.0 3rd   5th 6th
Military Capability 11th, 21.7 2nd   68.1 6th   27.4 5th 9th
Resilience 18th, 24.7 3rd   70.4 11th  10th 14th
Future Resources 12th, 6.5 2nd   72.9 5th 7th 11th
Diplomatic Influence  22th , 19.4 1st    91.5 3rd 6th 10th
Economic Relationships 12th, 11.1 1st   98.3 3rd 5th 4th
Cultural Influence 13th, 12.6 2nd   47.4 3rd 7th 9th
Defense Networks 16th, 11.8 7th    23.7 3rd 4th 5th
Asia's Comprehensive Power rankings:  1.US 2.Chn 3.Japan 4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8. Singapore 9.Indonesia
10.Thailand  11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC)
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/

New York Times, 2024-1-20: Polls show growing distrust of the United States in Taiwan
 

 

 

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No.1 "review Taiwan" on Microsoft Bing, 2024-1-1

 

 

Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-1-31: China says the U.S. could abandon Taiwan if Trump wins the Presidency; In July, Trump avoided directly answering a query over whether as president he'd defend Taiwan if China attacked.

  New York Times, 2024-1-27:  The truth is that Taiwan hasn't been willing to make deep sacrifices for its own security.  It allocates a smaller share of G.D.P. to defense than the United States, Israel or Estonia; it is only now requiring a year of military conscription (for men); and it is phasing out nuclear power plants, which are critical for resilience in a blockade because they provide homegrown power when imports provide 98 percent of energy National Interest, 2024-1-27: the Atlantic Council reported that Taipei has a potential defensive force of 450,000 troops. Using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders to successfully mount an invasion, China would need more than 1.2 million troops. While an air campaign could bring Taipei to its knees and then the peace table, such an effort would utterly destroy the island's infrastructure in the process  Economist, 2024-1-25: Amid this drama a new diplomatic battle is intensifying that risks setting the stage for war. China is changing the status quo militarily and on the diplomatic stage. That bodes ill for the future. As China sees it, the more countries that adopt its view of Taiwan, the more cover it has to turn words into action New York Times, 2024-1-24: Some believe — it appears this may be Trump's view — that T.S.M.C. is so valuable that it might tempt China to try to grab Taiwan, and then bring the world to its knees.  Given how difficult it is to move production, the best way to safeguard the manufacturing of chips may be to work harder than ever to deter and avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.  The Hill, 2024-1-23: according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario  Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force Washington Post, 2024-1-17:  The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away.  Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”.  Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises.  New York Times, 2024-1-13: With Taiwan's sense of self and China's expectations in conflict, Mr. Xi is not expected to sit idly by.     full text

 


 

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No.1  "Taiwan reviews "  on Microsoft Bing, 2023-9-13, 2023-6-17

 

 

 

Lai Ching-te won the presidency with 40 percent of the votes but his ruling DPP lost its majority in parliament. His Biggest Challenge Lies Ahead

media comments
New York Times, 2024-1-13 tensions are likely to rise; Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure”,“I'm afraid it's very dangerous”, 'noting that Mr. Xi's views on Taiwan were clear. That includes his insistence that force can be used if necessary. nytimes.com/2024/01/13/world/asia/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis.html Damien Cave
CNN, 2024-1-13 Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office  msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-voters-dismiss-china-warnings-and-hand-ruling-party-a-historic-third-consecutive-presidential-win/ar-AA1mUnBb  Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor
Washington Post, 2024-1-13 China's military pressure campaign has fueled concerns of miscalculation that could spark conflict and draw in the United States. Analysts are watching closely to see if Beijing responds to Lai's victory with large-scale drills that could send tensions spiraling washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/13/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te/  Christian Shepherd  Vic Chiang
XinHua (China), 2024-1-13 China:  the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island...the elections will not change the basic landscape and development trend of cross-Strait relations, will not alter the shared aspiration of compatriots across the Taiwan Strait to forge closer ties, and will not impede the inevitable trend of China's reunification.   english.news.cn/20240113/a669c1402683472ca4e420ca94fcd8df/c.html
Independent, 2024-1-14 Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te issues defiant message to China after historic election win...The DPP is often criticised for only focusing on efforts to counter the threat from China while having no solutions for social and economic problems that have been troubling the Taiwanese people news.yahoo.com/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-184055493.html
Euro News, 2024-1-13 China: Beijing wouldn't accept the election result as representing “the mainstream public opinion on the island,” without giving any evidence or justification.
TIME, 2024-1-13 ...those disaffected by the ruling DPP vote and wanting a less confrontational approach to cross-strait relations, certainly exists. The final result proved this, with over half the electorate voting for the alternatives to the DPP. But a majority for an approach or idea that doesn't translate into majority support for a party cuts no ice. msn.com/en-us/news/world/lai-ching-te-won-taiwans-presidency-but-his-biggest-challenge-lies-ahead/ar-AA1mV0Au   Kerry Brown
NHK (Japan), 2024-1-14 China noted that the results of the Saturday election reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion of Taiwan.
USA Today, 2024-1-13 The outcome of the vote will ultimately determine the nature of ties with China relative to the West and will have strong bearing on the state of play in the South China Sea
BBC, 2024-1-13 Taiwanese voters have chosen William Lai as their president in a historic election, cementing a path that is increasingly divergent from China.  bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920532  Tessa Wong
The Hill, 2024-1-13 Taiwan elects ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te as president in high-stakes race  Lauren Irwin news.yahoo.com/taiwan-elects-ruling-party-candidate-131754245.html
Reuters, 2024-1-13 US does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says
WSJ, 2024-1-13 Taiwan voters defy Beijing in electing new president
Vox, 2024-1-13 there is expectation among some China experts that China's response will be “assertive”...  it's likely to happen in the coming weeks or months, not in the next few days.“We're going to see a reaction from China; the question is, when and how,”'“Whereas five, 10, 15 years ago, it was fairly predictable — the kinds of things that Beijing would do. But I think it's increasingly difficult to predict what is going to happen and when it's likely to happen

 msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-taiwan-s-high-stakes-elections-china-is-the-loser/ar-AA1mVl3g  Ellen Ioanes

 

Washington Post, 2024-1-10:  increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States New York Times, 2024-1-9: Chinese officials have framed the race (presidential election) as a choice between peace and war. A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election.   Wall Street Journal , 2024-1-9:  The problem is that Beijing can't tolerate Taiwan's example of a thriving Chinese-speaking democracy in which voters settle political differences at the ballot box. If a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this will be why. BBC, 2024-1-9: Today, the DPP no longer talks about the need for formal independence and the KMT speaks of dialogue with Beijing, but sidesteps the subject of unification, or whether Taiwan is part of China. Both are now embracing Taiwan's peculiar "status quo"- it elects its own leaders, but it is not considered a country Economist, 2024-1-8: victory for the DPP is far from certain. The party once appealed to young voters, but after eight years in power it has a stuffy image. Wage growth has fallen behind inflation and house prices are high... fears of an energy-price crunch. Most importantly, it has become clear that China will not have formal contact with DPP governments.   full text

 

Fox News, 2024-1-6: The potential winner could further cement moves toward what could be called ‘de jure Taiwan independence.’ This will significantly increase the possibility of a war between the two sides; a war in which the U.S. will almost certainly be involved in Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window — if politicians are willing to seize it — to put the U.S. military deterrent on a firmer footing Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-5: a growing chorus of voices argue that continued support to Ukraine is detracting from the real threat—namely, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; Prematurely abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea...  The Guardian, 2024-1-5: The next president of Taiwan is likely to shape events less through proactive measures than his response to circumstances he cannot dictate: a crisis such as a military manoeuvre gone wrong, or more broadly, China’s internal politics Atlantic Council, 2024-1-3: Beijing's direct economic-electoral linkage ahead of the election may end up being a double-edged sword. If the purpose is to influence the election's outcome, then it could backfire Reuters, 2024-1-3: 'Hawkish' China military squeeze on Taiwan likely after election. If the DPP wins the presidency but loses its majority in parliament, that could also temper China's response given it would weaken the DPP's ability to pass legislation Fortune, 2024-1-2: opposition blame China tensions for pushing the chipmaker TSMC to invest overseas Wall Street Journal, 2023-12-29: Taiwanese politics has shifted decisively, and perhaps irrevocably, away from China. In Taipei, Lai paints a picture of a Taiwanese public far less preoccupied with Beijing’s designs than political leaders in the Western world. The KMT accused the DPP of underplaying the deterioration of cross-strait ties and the risk of war CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan NBC, 2023-12-26: Xi's private warning  on reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal    presidential  election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan. New York Post, 2023-12-26: Xi Jinping says China's ‘complete reunification’ with Taiwan will ‘surely’ happen New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-12-20: China distrusts Lai far more than Tsai.  China is all but certain to greet a Lai victory with intensified military, economic, and political pressure.     full text

 

 

 

 

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Taiwan Presidential election debate 2023-12-30

VOA News , Washington Post, AP,   2023-12-30  Taiwan's presidential candidates expressed desire for peaceful relations with Beijing. Tensions with China have featured strongly in the presidential campaign. Lai Ching-te promised to help strengthen Taiwan's defense and economy if elected. Hou said he opposed Taiwan's independence but also a potential unification under China's “one country, two systems” framework. Ko Wen-je, referenced a quote by Antony Blinken, saying that “Taiwan and China will cooperate if they can cooperate, compete if there’s a need to compete, and confront each other if they must confront each other.”; my bottom line is that Taiwan must maintain its current democratic and free political system and way of life. voanews.com/a/taiwan-s-presidential-candidates-emphasize-peace-with-beijing/7418610.html 
Reuters (UK), 2023-12-31 China calls Taiwan president frontrunner a destroyer of peace,"His words were full of confrontational thinking," after he spoke at a presidential debate  the island's sovereignty and independence belong to its people,  the Republic of China and People's Republic of China "are not subordinate to each other". KMT's Hou has denounced Lai as an independence supporter. news.yahoo.com/china-calls-taiwan-president-frontrunner-012538807.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
DW (Germany),  2023-12-31 Presidential candidates debate in shadow of ChinaLai remained defiant, at one point insisting that, "The sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to the 23 million people in Taiwan. It does not belong to China, "I will not go backward like the Kuomintang and be willing to become a vassal of totalitarianism... There are so many uncertainties regarding their policies". msn.com/en-in/news/world/taiwan-presidential-candidates-debate-in-shadow-of-china/ar-AA1mfuFn
AFP (France),  2023-12-30 China ties dominate Taiwan presidential debateKo, whose small TPP has performed above expectations in Taiwan's dominant two-party landscape, called President Tsai's cross-strait policies "a mess". The results of which could determine Taipei's future ties with an increasingly bellicose China. msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-ties-dominate-taiwan-presidential-debate/ar-AA1meDRj
Reuters, 2023-12-30 The televised debate was dominated by arguments over China and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.Taiwan belongs to its people: presidential candidate"The current status quo is that the Taiwan Strait is on the brink of war. So, to maintain close ties with the United States while also making peace with China is the solution to the problem," Hou said news.yahoo.com/taiwan-belongs-people-presidential-candidate-131009794.html
The Guardian, 2023-12-30 All three presidential candidates have acknowledged the potential risks of Taiwan becoming the next conflict zone. They aim to convince voters that they are the most capable leaders who can ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan strait, for Beijing the priority is to ensure the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) is kicked out of office.  theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/30/taiwan-election-new-president-growing-threat-china  Helen Davidson
SKY News (Australia),  2023-12-31 the race has become more unpredictable. The stakes for Taiwan's future have never seemed more unsteady, in light of rising tensions with China. skynews.com.au/world-news/our-future-has-never-seemed-more-unsteady-what-taiwans-2024-presidential-race-means-for-the-islands-rapidly-deteriorating-relationship-with-china/news-story/fe83df822e798ea6452659ceab914849   Hilton Yip

 

 

 

 

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22; No.3 at 2024-2-1

 

 

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Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18: although China would respond to a Taiwan declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not ready to undertake such a complicated campaign; a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and intimidation, a low-risk approach, targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is gradually working.  Economist, 2023-12-13:  There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.   Reporters Without Borders (RSF) , 2023-12-13: Taiwan is a country that suffers from one of the lowest trust rates in the media among democracies (28%) and where the media community is often criticised for disregarding journalism ethics... journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of quality news reporting. The Conversation, 2023-12-11: While Taiwanese people are concerned about potential conflict - one poll finds more than 80% of Taiwanese people believe the China threat is worsening – prospects for peace and stability are also affecting the island’s international business and investment outlook. The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy -  but- Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections  The Guardian, 2023-12-9: Cracks are appearing in China's monolithic regime – and its leader might decide a military adventure will strengthen his grip on power Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan). New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election  Foreign Affairs, 2023-11-30: as the United States works with Taiwan to strengthen its security, it must avoid giving the impression that it is moving toward restoring formal diplomatic relations or a defense alliance with the island. Combined with a conditional and credible threat of a military response by the United States and Taiwan to the use of force, such assurances will help prevent a war.       full text

 

 

 

      

 

New York Post (2023-12-20):Xi told Biden he plans to take Taiwan — by any means necessary;  NBC (2023-12-20):Xi's private warning to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal presidential election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Business Insider (2023-12-20): Xi straight-up told Biden that China is going to take over Taiwan, report says. It could end in war;  Daily Mail (2023-12-20):  Top Republicans alarmed by 'beyond unnerving' report Xi warned Biden that China WILL reunify with Taiwan in blunt message

 

western media  Taiwan's presidential election -  could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly.   brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te.  brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27 Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28 China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan"  brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29 Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

 

  New York Times, 2023-11-26: Taiwan, a highly online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in the world for disinformation from foreign governments.  RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable effects”Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a political witch hunt, Taiwan's media ecosystem, with its diverse political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be misattributed to Chinese manipulation.        full text

 

Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 202,410 (world No.3) US$ 108,250
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 551,190 US$ 273,790
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023) HK$ 36,583 (about TWD147,204) TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14) about TWD 84,000 about TWD 43,000
Market Capitalization  (UDN, 2023-12-14) more than double of Taiwan's about USD 1.7 trillion
At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank.

 



 


pic. 
This websites-group was ranked No.1 by keyword "review Taiwan"  on DuckDuckGo, 2024-1-1, 2023-7-4, 2023-4-15, 2023-3-20, 2023-1-21, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-16 ;No.2 at 2023-2-28, 2023-1-1

 


p
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pic.: No.1 : review Taiwan" on Lycos, SearchEncrypt, 2023-7-4; No.1 on Lycos, SearchEncrypt, Dogpile, 2023-4-15, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-16

 

 

 

No.1 "review Taiwan " on Yahoo Taiwan, 2024-1-1, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-4-30, 2023-4-15, 2023-3-20, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-16

 


No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on Microsoft Bing, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-4-15, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-8-24

 

 

 

western media  Taiwan presidential election -  opposition alliance collapse
New York Times, 2023-11-24 even experienced observers baffled as to why the opposition parties would stage such a public rupture over who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket... , It really defies theories of coalition building.  Lai's party asserts Taiwan's distinctive identity and claims to nationhood, and has become closer to the United States.  China could respond by escalating menacing military activities around Taiwan, which sits roughly 100 miles off the Chinese coast.   brief
Economist, 2023-11-24 polls suggest the flurry of chaotic opposition negotiating has modestly bolstered both Mr Hou and Mr Ko. After eight years in power, the dpp is struggling especially with younger voters, who are suffering from high housing costs and low wages. Some also worry about a possible war with China.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24 There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai winsIt will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats...will impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China.   brief
BBC, 2023-11-24 Mr Lai is not much of a campaigner. His poll ratings have gradually sunk, from over 40% in the summer to barely touching 30% now.   brief
VOA, 2023-11-24 analysts say will be a referendum on China relations. Beijing said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-24 Lai's advantage is largely thanks to disarray in the opposition camp. He has consistently polled around or just above 30 percent.     A win is not guaranteed. Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai’s presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals and grumbling from Taiwanese businesses about lost trade with China;  Lev Nachman:This election is becoming about who voters think is the safest choice for Taiwan。” brief
Reuters, 2023-11-24 China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud,    potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power.
TIME, 2023-11-24 collapse of the alliance is likely to consolidate both the KMT’s and the TPP's vote base on the one hand, as intensified conflicts usually can promote vote base consolidation and unity,  wing voters who have no stable identification with either party will be less likely to vote for [either of] them.”
Wall Street Journal, 2023-11-24 China isn’t backing off TaiwanThe U.S. will wish it had deterred the crisis when faced with these grim choices; Far better to avoid this conflict than to fight it in any form.

 

 

 

 
  
   
 

pic.  : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-8, 2023-6-4, 2023-5-23, 5-21; No.3 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-5-2, 2023-3-26

 

 

 

 No.2  "review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2023-1-1,2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-20, 2022-11-15, 2022-11-6 ; No.1  "review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-25, 2021-9-29, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-15, 2021-8-5, 2021-7-24, 2021-7-9, 2021-7-4, 2021-6-22, 2021-6-15, 2021-5-31, 2021-5-1, 2020-12-20   ;   No.2 at 2022-8-12, 2022-7-21,  2022-5-25, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-12, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-25, 2021-9-19; No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google,  2022-5-25; "Taiwan reviews" among top ranks on US Google, 2022-08-23, 2022-08-24; No.3"review Taiwan" on Google, 2022-9-30, 2022-9-23; No.4 "Taiwan reviews" on Google, 2023-4-30

 


pic.  : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-3, 2023-6-
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pic.  : No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-10, 2023-7-8

 

 


 

 

    Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi's rhetoric indicates he's getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome.   FoxNews, 2023-11-16: Xi underscored that this (Taiwan) was the biggest, most potentially dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations Biden again calls Xi a 'DICTATOR' as china vows to be 'UNSTOPPABLE' in retaking Taiwan   The Hill, 2023-11-16: Biden, Xi reset relationship but without a ‘breakthrough’   New Yorker, 2023-11-14: The war in Gaza, along with ongoing U.S. support of Ukraine, has prompted concern in some quarters that Taiwan could be left dangerously vulnerable   Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion   Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the DPP's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait       full text

 

media Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15 Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15 Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Bidenfrom Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16 The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict

 

 

   Bloomberg, 2023-11-10: The US's top general said he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily   BBC, 2023-11-9:Beijing's espionage strategy has intensified and expanded beyond elite military circles. Taiwan did not have a robust system for restricting access to classified information until recently.   Economist, 2023-11-6: Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China; despite huge advances in many areas, it still does not have the troops, equipment, experience, command structures or logistics necessary to be confident of victory in a war over Taiwan.   BBC, 2023-11-6:  in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery  -  Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine. There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan   Economist, 2023-10-31: Taiwan's chips give the world an economic reason to protect the island from a Chinese invasion. But now America and China are competing to control the supply of these sophisticated chips. And that puts Taiwan in the middle of the two superpowers   Washington Post, 2023-10-31: China's bellicosity against Taiwan has ratcheted up. China now regularly makes military feints at Taiwan with naval and aerial incursions.   New York Times, 2023-10-29: Xi may decide to strike if he begins to feel that Taiwan is slipping further from his grasp, especially if the United States continues to bolster Taiwan's military and its own forces in the region. Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities    Economist, 2023-10-26: In 2019 Xi Jinping, China's president, gave a speech linking the 1992 consensus with the mainland's one-China principle and proposed a “one country, two systems” formula for incorporating Taiwan. That speech “set the tone” for a more assertive Chinese policy on Taiwan   Nikkei Asian Review, 2023-10-27: Taiwan still invests in conventional weapons at the expense of asymmetric capabilities, and it's "not clear whether the government has embraced asymmetric warfighting concepts   New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally.   Newsweek, 2023-10-20: Pentagon Lists Six Possible Causes of China-Taiwan War: 1.  Formal Declaration of Independence 2. Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence 3. "internal unrest" in Taiwan 4. Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons 5. Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification 6. Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs   New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence.   BBC, 2023-10-16: A spooked and lonely Taiwan looks for new friends. Perhaps the most fertile ground for making new friends is in the young democracies of Eastern Europe Increasingly Taipei relied on its chequebook to hold on to a dwindling list of allies, mainly in the form of aid and investment.    full text

 

Taiwan's presidential election

Newsweek, 2023-10-26 Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says
Economist, 2023-10-26 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. KMT and TPP would need to work out an acceptable distribution of cabinet members. If they can fix these issues over the next month, Taiwan could be in for a very tight race.
Nikkei Asian Review Taiwan's election may open 'window' for better China ties. International Crisis Group warns that conflict risks are rising
Australia Financial Review, 2023-10-26 voters are torn in Taiwan - Inflation, housing affordability, energy prices and scandals are on the mind of the electorate. As well as whether China will invade, of course.
Reuters, 2023-10-26 Foxconn founder Terry Gou lies low in Taiwan election as China tax probe reverberates

 

  AP, Washington Post, 2023-10-12:  the Hamas-Israel war “blew up so suddenly,” prompting Taiwan to up its ability to forecast possible threats. Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine has also raised concerns that China may act against Taiwan, possibly with Moscow's backing   Newsweek,  2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously   VOA News,  2023-10-13: some Taiwanese citizens worry China could see an opportunity to attack Taiwan if Washington were to be dragged into the conflict in the Middle East. Lev Nachman said a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming days is unlikely.    AP, Reuters, 2023-10-10: Taiwan seeks 'peaceful coexistence' with China, president says, Differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved peacefully, and maintaining the status quo is "critical" to ensuring peace   BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China.  Washington Examiner, 2023-10-5: Were Taipei truly serious about deterring and defeating a PLA attack, it would be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defense   VOA, 2023-10-5: US warns China cost for blockading Taiwan to be 'Very High'   CNN, 2023-10-3: Taiwan gears up for its presidential election in January, with the island's foreign policy and relations with China a central issue in the race alongside more bread and butter issues like the cost of living and stagnant wages    American Spectator, 2023-10-3:  when the leaders of authoritarian China decide whether to attack Taiwan, their top consideration is not economics but politics.   The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications  AP, 2023-10-3:  a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity.  full text

 

  Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

NewsWeek, 2023-9-29 A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.  Policy experts in the U.S.  have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so
CNN, 2023-9-28 While the Taiwan Strait might be too shallow for submarines to operate in, the vessels could be most useful when deployed to target Chinese warships in the Bashi channel – which separates Taiwan from the Philippines – and the waters between Taiwan and Japan’s westernmost islands.  China has planned for a major naval engagement with the US outside the first island chain, around the Philippine Sea”.
BBC, 2023-9-28 National University of Singapore Drew Thompson:  the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China...The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
Defense News, 2023-9-29 Reuters has also reported that that Taiwan had recruited engineers and retired submariners from the U.S., U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, Spain and Canada to work on the program
Forbes, 2023-9-28 In CSIS's war games, Chinese escorts, aircraft and submarines usually sank around a fifth of the deployed subs every three or four days throughout the weekslong war. In the end, perhaps a dozen or more subs lay wrecked at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, tombs for thousands of submariners.
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30 Some see the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program as a poor use of scarce defense resources on a prestige project ;   The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.

 

 

News:    TIME, 2023-9-28:  If China's military responds to a Lai (Ching-te) victory in January by challenging Taiwanese defenses much closer to the island's shores,...Beijing and Washington could find themselves managing a crisis neither side really wants but can't avoid    Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,... the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc.   The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute warns that the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and lethal set of capabilities than it does nowChina has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained.   full text

 

  New York post, 2023-9-19: China would have to do a combined amphibious and airborne air assault operation, which is an incredibly complicated joint operation to be able to do   Reuters, 2023-9-19: Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says  New York Times, 2023-9-18:  China sends record number of military planes near Taiwan. China is also testing and eroding the island's vigilance, seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's military might.  Taiwan expert: The sorties appeared to signal “China's dissatisfaction with the recent developments in strengthening military and economic and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States”  Financial Times, 2023-9-15:  opinion polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's assurances.  Taiwan opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments, Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more explicit backing from Washington.    Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-9-14:  Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy  given the inevitable global backlash.   The capital city can reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA forces, every Taiwan citizen should be a resistance member : Preparing for a Chinese occupation      Bloomberg,2023-9-12:  a separate report to lawmakers: Taiwan's Defense Ministry warned that China's ruling Communist Party may “push forward the process of solving the Taiwan issue” during President Xi Jinping’s third term, which runs to 2027.    Military, 2023-9-13: By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan   Associated Press, 2023-9-9: The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping territorial claims   Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.   CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations   full text

 

China's economic crisis     news.yahoo.com/china-economic-woes-could-raise-220300203.html  Michael Martina   businessinsider.com/joe-biden-china-unlikely-invade-taiwan-economy-property-crisis-g20-2023-9   Huileng Tan

Reuters, 2023-9-12 :  the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China says China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan
Washington Examiner, Insider, 2023-9-11: Biden says China is unlikely to invade Taiwan now because Beijing just too busy with its own economic crisis

 

News:   Reuters, 2023-8-31:  The outcome of the closely watched January 2024 vote will set the tone for Taipei's tumultuous relationship with Beijing Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30:  Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure.   full text

 

 Taiwanese Divided on US Military Sales /  VOA News , 2023-9-6

 66.5% of the respondents support U.S. military sales to Taiwan
43.1% of respondents think U.S. military sales to Taiwan will further increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Whereas 37.8% think U.S. military sales can help maintain peace between China and Taiwan
Taiwan rarely has the autonomy to decide what types of weapons it wants to purchase from the U.S. Rather, the deliverables often seem to have been “decided” for Taiwan

there are often deeper political meanings behind U.S. military sales to Taiwan.  These military sales should be conducted more discreetly, rather than publicly announcing these programs

 the U.S. provides more offensive weapons for Taiwan through military sales, they believe it increases the risks of prompting a potential Chinese military attack on Taiwan.

voanews.com/a/taiwanese-divided-on-us-military-sales-amid-growing-chinese-threats/7256298.htm

 

BBC, 2023-8-29 : Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.  Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.   full text

 

Using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program to transfer military aid to Taiwan will likely infuriate China.

USA China

 ♣ CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations

 ♣ Bloomberg (2023-8-31): The Foreign Military Financing mechanism covers international organizations as well as nations
 ♣ The Hill (2023-9-1): the first time the U.S. has provided military assistance under FMF to Taiwan and the second time it's given it to a non-nation-state, the first being to the African Union.

 ♣ The Hill (2023-9-1): China says it 'deplores' US military transfer to Taiwan

 

 

Reuters, 2023-8-25: Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft entering Taiwan's "response" zone,  Taiwan could not judge whether China's drills had formally ended  (Reuters, 2023-8-26: Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone, which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.)   Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves. Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25: analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. TIME, 2023-8-21 :  China stops importing Taiwan's mangoes after Beijing announced naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S., having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an interview with Bloomberg  Washington Post, 2023-8-20:  The election of a third consecutive DPP administration would confirm that Beijing's attempts to bring Taiwan under its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing.  Although Lai is currently leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top contenders chose one to rally around New York Times, 2023-8-19:  In warning to Taiwan, China Announces joint air and sea drills, so far, China's response after Mr. Lai's visit appears more muted than it was in April, or last August, Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's favor by pushing more support to his party in presidential election Chicago Tribune, 2023-8-14: As tensions build between China and Taiwan, tensions continue to ratchet up between Beijing and Washington, with both sides wanting to appear tough to deter the other from taking military action. The result, however, is making war more likely, not less. The United States must do something to lower tensions to maintain the peace while also retaining the ability to defend our interests   full text

 

US Congress CRS Report, 2023-8-24  - Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481

 Civil military relations are strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, ... Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. It is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear ...
persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack.  If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond
many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack.  observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.

 

  Bloomberg, 2023-8-14:  Taiwan's Election Is All About War...  it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over"   full text

 

 

  Lai Ching-te  'stopover'

New York Times (2023-8-14 news brief, 2023-8-12) A Taiwanese presidential contender walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/asia/taiwan-us-china-lai-ching-te.html
NPR (2023-8-12) Taiwan's Vice President is stopping by the U.S. this week, under China's watchful eyeU.S officials pointedly refer to Lai's trip as a transit, meaning a stop for logistical, rather than political, purposes.   For Lai, this trip is especially to break out of some of the suspicions the U.S. may have about him and prove he can engage with the U.S.
DW (2023-8-12) Beijing labeled Lai  — a separatist and a "troublemaker."
BBC ( 2023-8-14) China accused Washington of engaging Taiwan in political activities under the guise of a stopover.  Mr Lai's visit comes at a low point in US-China relations, with Taiwan emerging as the biggest flashpoint.  Mr Lai has previously called himself - to Beijing's displeasure - a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence".  bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66495368?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA)   Derek Cai
France 24 ( 2023-8-14) China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington
CNN (2023-8-13) China calls him a “troublemaker through and through.”. China deplores and strongly condemns the US decision to arrange the so-called ‘stopover'.
 AFP (2023-8-13) China on Sunday vowed "resolute and forceful measures" over a weekend trip by Taiwan Vice President William Lai to the United States

Lai has been far more outspoken about independence than Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, to whom Beijing is already hostile as she refuses to accept its view that Taiwan is a part of China.   news.yahoo.com/china-vows-forceful-response-over-035750831.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 Wall Street Journal (2023-8-12) China's leaders have more to think about as they weigh a response.  While it serves Beijing's interests to have better relations with Washington at this moment,” that doesn't mean the Chinese leadership would shy from taking strong action on Taiwan, if they deem it necessary  msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-visit-by-taiwan-vice-president-puts-china-in-a-bind/ar-AA1fbCxI   Chun Han Wong, Joyu Wang, Charles Hutzler
VOA (2023-8-11) experts think Beijing will launch a military response to Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., but the scale will depend on how "official-looking" his trip is. "This includes who he meets with, what he says, and how public those meetings are" ... any reaction deemed too provocative could help increase Lai's chance of winning the election. However, she added that Beijing also worries about sending the wrong signal if its responses are deemed too weak.  voanews.com/a/analysts-us-taipei-aim-to-keep-taiwan-vp-transit-stops-low-key-/7220905.html

 

 

  European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8:  the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military.   New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. New York Times, 2023-8-8:  the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts  — is under a shadow.  This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct  JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report  about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression."    New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will  not  not  invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"    The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems".    full text

 

Pew Research, 2023-8-11: 28-48, Taiwan seen more favorably than not across 24 countries
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/11/taiwan-seen-more-favorably-than-not-across-24-countries/

  unfavorable favorable
US 30 65
UK 25 60
Nederland 35 52
Germany 28 50
France 26 49
Japan 14 82
S. Korea 19 77
Australia 27 71
India 43 37
Greece 30-28, Hungary 25-25, Spain 37-38,  S Africa 40-23, Brazil 34-29, 24-country median 28-48

 

 Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen.     Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year."  , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper     full text

 

 

#MeToo in Taiwan

New York Times, 2023-7-27 our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html 
Reuters, 2023-7-28 Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence.   victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships.   .reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/   Sarah Wu   
New York Times, 2023-6-25  torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions about the state of women's rights on an island democracy ... entrenched sexism that leaves women vulnerable at work, and a culture that is quick to blame victims and cover up accusations against powerful men.  nytimes.com/2023/06/25/world/asia/taiwan-harassment-metoo.html

 

   The coming China war over Taiwan   Fox News, 2023-7-28  

 The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place.

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it's too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler

 

   What would be the signs that a PLA invasion is in the planning ?

Economist, 2023-7-27: China would want to secure adequate supplies of commodities, namely energy ( coal, gas, oil - one of the best indicators ), food and metals (unusual metal-buying patterns,  export controls on rare-earth metals  ) and to reduce the country's dependence on the dollar. China might move its foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars and euros and into assets such as gold,  and probably tighten its capital controls, they also might freeze all foreign funds in China, etc   economist.com/china/2023/07/27/could-economic-indicators-signal-chinas-intent-to-go-to-war
National Interest , 2022-11-21:  there would be reliable indications, including surging production of various missiles, rockets, and key munitions, China would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions and would start preparing the population psychologically for the cost of the war....
They might take a strategic advantage, such as by catching the rest of the world off-guard, capitalizing on the chaos and distraction in other countriesnationalinterest.org/feature/china’s-new-politburo-has-taiwan-its-crosshairs-205909
Japan Times, 2022-10-18: some of indications could be a mix of both short- and long-term economic steps to try and insulate the Chinese economy from external vulnerabilities and to minimize China's dependency on the world while maximizing the world's dependency on China.       Short-term economic indicators are more likely to signal Beijing’s intent. These could include a number of abrupt steps such as freezing foreign financial assets within China, quickly repatriating Chinese assets held abroad, a surge in stockpiling emergency supplies such as medicine or key technology inputs and a suspension of key exports such as critical minerals, refined petroleum products or food. japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/18/asia-pacific/signs-china-invasion-taiwan/

 

BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. Financial Times, 2023-7-26:  Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar  Financial Times, 2023-7-24:  so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself.  Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.  But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan'    National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet YellenIf reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.    Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine    National Interest, 2023-7-15:  With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...  it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation     CNN, 2023-7-14:  it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island. The longer the delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too slim to achieve success if its forces move too late  ◆  Reuters, 2023-7-14:  US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan  in the coming yearsMilley said the United States was looking at whether it needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the Asia Pacific.  ◆   Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  "Our gender culture still hasn't caught up with the laws", said a DPP legislator , "Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming."  West Point, Modern War Institute, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war... systems (a range of cyber fires, electromagnetic attack, and long-range precision missile systems...) are the primary means to achieve decisive advantage.   full text

 

 CNN, 2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General  summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow.   Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  The Guardian, 2023-7-9: while the war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000) of 2 million reservists are thought to be combat-ready...  the drills lack urban warfare or modern weaponry instruction. Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.  The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.  While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield".   Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,... ◆  le Monde, 2023-7-5:  many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ RAND, Jun. 2023: Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days  — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China... would allow it to eventually subjugate the island. Economist, 2023-6-29:   if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed.   CSIS.org, 2023-6-29:  Fundamentally, both the August and April exercises were suggestive of an “encirclement” of Taiwan using PLA Navy forces;  the April exercises were no less significant than those in August. AFP, Moscow Times, 2023-6-28:Taiwan sighted two Russian frigates sailing off its eastern coast. The presence of Russian warships is unusual,  Interfax reported the warships were performing tasks as part of a long-range sea crossing, which included "a simulated naval battle   full text

 

News:     TIME, 2023-6-26:  Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their operations away from China FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's cooperation against  Lai Ching-te FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  56% Americans would support an increase in U.S. military presence as a way to discourage China from invading Taiwan and 30% indicated they would oppose such a move, according to the results of a Reagan Institute poll Reuters, 2023-6-24: Taiwan says Chinese air force approached close to island's coast  Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-6-23: The United States needs to bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait without provoking China.  A heavy-handed U.S. approach could come with a heavy cost. Avoiding conflict will take great diplomatic nuance.    Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21:  China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. G7 responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support economic countermeasures against China and opt for a de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion would likely be divided    Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:  If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific    Economist, 2023-6-19:  Chinese officials pay much attention to online opinion. When it comes to a war with Taiwan, many Chinese urge caution, even some ardent nationalists; according to a recent paper, even if China were to decide to go to war by next January, only 55% said that would be acceptable   FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ; Over the last year, the U.S. and China saw more than $700 billion in trade which according to Blinken constituted the highest level between the two countries on record. He reiterated  that it would be "disastrous" for the U.S. to decouple and stop all trade and investment with China.   Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction.  For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ...     CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait   full text

 

  Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-21: Biden calls Xi a dictator, jeopardizing US-China thaw
  USA Today, 2023-6-21:  China threatens to undermine his administration's efforts to "thaw" intensifying relations.
  Reuters, 2023-6-21: expert at Fudan University: it  would not erase what Blinken had achieved on his China visit.


 National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States   L.A. Times, 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's relationship with China is one of the most contentious and defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status quo, politicians are deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own parties.

 

National Interest, 2023-6-20  nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
“How confident are you that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to start a war against Taiwan?”a web survey (implemented by Macromill Embrain)

  overall DPP KMT TPP
not at all confident 26.61% 3.23% 55.63% 32.12%
not very confident 37.92 23.12 29.38 48.91
fairly 27.96 48.92 12.50 16.79
very confident 7.51 24.73 2.50 2.19

 

#MeToo  in Taiwan

 CNN, 2023-6-10 The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment.   Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else.  Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles,  will it be the real #MeToo moment.  edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html
 The Guardian, 2023-6-8 The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.   theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk
Washington Post, 2023-6-7  The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang.  people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment. msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH    Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin 
Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7 Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang  Wenxin Fan
 ABC Australia, 2023-6-24 Young women, since they were children, they are already taught to protect themselves, or try to tolerate this kind of inconvenience (accept harassment).  Sexual harassment and sexual assault are prevalent in all kinds of power relationships. The impact of the Netflix show Wave Makers (造浪者)has been huge, and it resonated with young Taiwanese women, s
criptwriter Chien says the show struck a chord because of the prevalence of sexual harassment in Taiwanese society. 
 
abc.net.au/news/2023-06-24/taiwan-metoo-movement-triggered-by-netflix-show-wave-makers/102505174 
  SCMP, 2023-6-11 NTU prof.  Tso Chen-dong: the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights.  DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights. scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3223609/wave-metoo-cases-threatens-engulf-taiwans-ruling-democratic-progressive-party   Lawance Chung

 

economist / The world's most liveable cities in 2023
City liveability index, Mar. 2023   -   Taipei ranks world No. 65, Asia's No.14

score

cities in Asia

90+ Melbourne, Sydney, Aucland, Adelaide, Osaka(Japan), Perth, Tokyo(Japan), Brisbane, Wellington, Singapore
 80-90 Seoul(Korea), Hong Kong(Chn),  Busan(Korea), Taipei (Taiwan), Kaohsiung, Taichung
60-80 Noumea, Nantong, SuZhou, Beijing, ShenYang, Shanghai, etc
top 5 cities: Vienna 98.4,  Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney, Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96
Score out of 100*  five categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education and infrastructure.

 

 

News:  USNI, 2023-6-7:  Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are "rumors about slow production" ... Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - maintaining a traditional naval force that could leave it open to invasion or pursuing an asymmetric one Sydney Morning Herald, 2023-6-7: Anthony Albanese said Australia's goal was “not to prepare for war but to prevent it”. The more willing we are to support Taiwan's security, the less likely it is we would ever need to fight for Taiwan   CNN, 2023-6-2:  the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report:  there is no evidence the war in Ukraine has “altered Chinese thinking on the timescale or methodology” for a possible attack on Taiwan.   Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown  Washington Post, 2023-5-31:  Why are tensions so high?  China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979.   IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way    full text

 

Elbridge  Colby, a leading voice for a new pivot to Asia.” John Walters, Hudson Institute CEO
He wants to see the U.S. concentrate efforts on deterring war in the Pacific, even if that means abandoning European interests. the U.S. simply does not have the capability for building the alliance system Walters envisions or supplying it with the requisite arms and ammunition to fight wars with two great powers at once; It will take well into the 2030s before we're in much better shape; before Chinese leader Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan, the U.S. should put in place immediate measures to attack the key segments of that CCP economic and military power Ukraine Is No Distraction From Asia.”;  the US can fend off Russian and Chinese revanchism simultaneously; aggression must be met by strong American alliances with key countries, including both Taiwan and Ukraine; the kinds of weapons needed in Ukraine and Taiwan are different enough that supplying one will not substantially affect the other; most Republicans on Capitol Hill remain strong supporters of UkraineUkraine will help generate (US) domestic resolve to fight for Taiwan. 
washingtonexaminer.com/news/inside-right-debate-ukraine-taiwan  2023-6-1

 

The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. Reuters, 2023-5-27:  Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says  Washington Post, 2023-5-29:  Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places   The Guardian, 2023-5-24:  Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai  has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war The strategy seems to be working. Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17  :  faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.  The Hill, 2023-5-17:  Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.  Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence  New York Times, 2023-5-11:  Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-5-9: Threatening to destroy TSMC is unnecessary and would also help China sow distrust among Taiwanese people toward the US and undermine Taiwan's will to resist Chinese aggression...China's determination to achieve reunification would be just as strong if Taiwan were a poor, agrarian society Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11:  the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.  —   deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11:  Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house”  full text

 

Reuters Report (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023/taiwan)
Trust in Taiwan's news overall: 28%; Trust in news I use: 35%; Trust score in 2017/2018: 31%, score in 2022/2023: 28%.   Due to the intense competition in the media market and the interventions of owners, trust in news (28%) remains among the lowest in our survey. In the polarised media landscape, many brands with political colours are less trusted, whereas business publications tend to have higher levels of trust. PTS (55%) remains one of the most trusted brands this year, after internal improvements.

 RSF, <Reporters Sans Frontieres>, France, 2023: Taiwan's World Press Freedom Index - score 75.54, rank 35.

 

Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism  Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said   le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  The Nation, 2023-4-26:  A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it.   AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering.  Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan.   CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military   New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States  Brookings, 2023-4-15:  Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens    New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆  TIME, 2023-4-12:  Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island. BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid  New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China  New York Times, 2023-4-5:  Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China   Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The  DPP has criticised KMT's  "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict  Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners   AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington  Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23:  to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”  Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter    full text

 

Taiwan's President  is expected to meet Speaker McCarthy, Beijing will decide how strongly it wants to respond

New York Times, 2023-3-29 President Tsai Ing-wen risks a show of force from Beijing Beijing just lured Honduras to abandon diplomatic ties with Taipei in what many saw as pre-emptive punishment for her trip. nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/asia/taiwan-president-us-china.html
Bloomberg, 2023-3-29 Tsai is unlikely to use this moment to “push boundaries" , partly to avoid "accusations of being provocative by Taiwanese voters.". Any Tsai meeting with McCarthy "puts the ball in Beijing's court"  news.yahoo.com/china-warns-taiwan-leader-mccarthy-031352507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Washington Post, 2023-3-29 When Honduras switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last week, it put the diplomatic future of Taiwan in a more precarious position washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/honduras-taiwan-china-allies-relations/
Newsweek, 2023-3-31 "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing,""At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution."  msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-two-taiwan-trips-mean-for-fate-of-most-dangerous-us-china-issue/ar-AA19komh  Tom O'Connor
Bloomberg, 2023-3-31 The expected California meeting with McCarthy was considered a concession: At the request of the Taiwanese government, McCarthy decided to put off a potential trip to Taiwan until after presidential elections next year and instead host Taiwan’s leader on US soil.  msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-tries-to-keep-china-calm-while-taiwans-tsai-visits-the-us/ar-AA19il7y   Jenny Leonard and Cindy Wang
L.A. Times, 2023-3-31 On a sensitive U.S. visit, Taiwan's leader stresses defense and democracy msn.com/en-us/news/world/on-a-sensitive-u-s-visit-taiwan-s-leader-stresses-defense-and-democracy/ar-AA19j0p0   ELLEN KNICKMEYER, MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN and LISA MASCARO
The Guardian, 2023-3-28 (ex president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington.   Taiwan caught between superpowers as rival leaders visit China and US theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/taiwan-leaders-visit-china-us-ma-ying-jeou-tsai-ing-wenTaipei

 

Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive. Reuters, 2023-3-13:  In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China U.S. Naval War College  - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system,  the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them.  Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation. Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people     full text

 

Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns

AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/   ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy.   msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h

 

  Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning Foreign Policy in focus, 2023-3-2:  if Beijing did decide to invade Taiwan after 2026, TSMC’s intellectual capital, in the form of its top computer scientists, would undoubtedly be on outbound flights for Phoenix, leaving little more than a few concrete shells and some sabotaged equipment behind...significant chip factory projects being put in place ... Add it all up and the U.S. is already about halfway to the “minimum of three years and a $350 billion investment… to replace the Taiwanese [chip] foundries  ◆  USNI, 2023-3-2:  Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.  ◆ Reuters, 2023-2-28: The threat of China invading Taiwan has moved to the centre of global money managers' risk radars and is factoring in their investment decisions,"China wouldn't have to invade Taiwan or actually get hot to just cause a stir in that part of the market"   ◆  Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ...   full text

 

Pew Research org., 2023-3-2
US respondents' views about a hypothetical conflict between China, Taiwan differ by question wording

  a conflict between China and Taiwan China invade Taiwan Taiwan declared Independence, China invaded
support China 8% 7 10
support Taiwan 45% 49 40
remain neutral 47% 44 50
when the scenario involves Taiwan declaring independence. Under this hypothetical, 46% of Democratic respondents say the U.S. should support Taiwan, compared with 28% of Republicans.
pewresearch.org/decoded/2023/03/02/testing-survey-questions-about-a-hypothetical-military-conflict-between-china-and-taiwan/

 

  New York Times, 2023-2-27: U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods   Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief:  Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan   Asia Society Policy Institute, Feb. 2023: evidence from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in 2022 augurs against an invasion or all-out blockade in the short term. PRC might seizure of one or more of the islands currently controlled by the ROC. Japan Times, 2023-2-24: Japan will, at best, be a (possibly reluctant) follower of a U.S.-led coalition to defend Taiwan...In case Chinese President Xi Jinping attempts to annex Taiwan, the stakes of confronting Beijing will be much higher for Japan and other U.S. partners than facing Moscow is for Europeans. New York Times, 2023-2-22: TSMC might have been forced to set up a factory in the United States because of political considerations, but so far, the Phoenix project has yielded very little benefit for TSMC or Taiwan...citing lofty costs.    New York Times, 2023-2-22: Gallagher argued that Taiwan could not be expected to build defense formidable enough to deter Beijing...without the US making good on a backlog of purchase order   WSJ, Fox News, 2023-2-23: The U.S. is preparing to send 100 to 200 troops to Taiwan for training amid rising tensions with China; The Wall Street Journal described the planned troop increase in the coming months as the largest deployment of American forces in Taiwan in decades. TIME, 2023-2-23: Winning the tech war with China depended entirely upon persuading U.S. allies—particularly Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Japan—to follow the U.S. lead and adopt similar export control regulations   Aljazeera, 2023-2-23: CIA Director William Burns recently said although Xi was likely “unsettled” by Russia’s failures in Ukraine, he had still told China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.   Bloomberg, 2023-2-22: Holding off the PLA for two weeks is a key goal of Taiwan's military because it would allow time for the US and other allies to come to its aid. Washington Post, 2023-2-22Our best chance of preventing an invasion of Taiwan, and of essentially preventing World War III, is to put actual hard power on Taiwan Washington Post, 2023-2-20:  growing concern — conviction even — that war between the United States and China could be coming. The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan. Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan  NY Times, 2023-2-15: An active denial strategy that focuses on supplying defensive weapons to U.S. allies and a lower-profile, more agile deployment of U.S. forces in the region would raise the costs of Chinese military action without exacerbating China's own sense of insecurity Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-2-12: the unpredictable nature of ADIZ violations is intended to keep the status quo around Taiwan unstable and ambiguous in order to facilitate strategic surprise  CNN, 2023-2-9: More US firms in Taiwan say they're seeing 'significant disruption' due to rising tension with China - elevated concern from global headquarters, increased shipping, insurance or financial costs, as well as staff anxiety  Bloomberg, 2023-2-5:   the US position on the island remains equivocal. The intention is to avoid provoking Beijing, yet the consequence is to weaken deterrence. Washington Post, 2023-2-3: (China's) state-run People's Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with containing China.   Washington Post, 2023-2-2: Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan   US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch  Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan.  "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade". Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence   WSJ, 2023-1-23: Taiwan is much more important (than Ukraine) to our security and prosperity. Any tanks we can spare should go to Taipei New York Times, 2023-1-21: Glaser warns that symbolic victories may not be worth the cost of provoking China ... "But the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism" said Dan Blumenthal   full text

 

  The Hill, 2023-1-23: the U.S. defense industrial base is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war...How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario? Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"  ◆ USNI, 2023-1-23: Sen. John Cornyn also questioned whether Taiwan could “hold out for a couple of weeks … until the cavalry arrives” for its rescue.  USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia    full text

 

Biden's State of the Union speech - Taiwan war

The Hill, 2023-2-9 Biden's State of the Union speech on Feb. 7 buried these two clear and present dangers simultaneously confronting national security. When is the Biden administration going to recognize that we are essentially in the equivalent of WWIII?
Washington Examiner, 2023-2-1 State of Our Union: Biden's China policy tolerates excessive risks    The Biden administration is playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war.
The Hill, 2023-2-14  In his first State of the Union address in March 2022, President Biden, proclaimed, “In the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment";...  if China invaded Taiwan, would the international order really collapse? Would authoritarianism really spread throughout the globe? Is it in the U.S. interest to come to Taiwan’s defense? Are we prepared to send Americans into harm's way?

 

War On The Rocks, 2023-1-20:  Training, Not Arms Sales, Should Be the New Priority    AFP, 2023-1-21:  Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. CNN, 2023-1-20:  In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. New York Post, 2023-1-14:  the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN, 2023-1-9: CSIS  War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries  ◆The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island.     full text

 

General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025?    The Hill, 2023-2-2, Fox News, 2023-2-4, USA Today, 2023-2-3

US generals, officials, experts, law-makers China invade Taiwan by ?
CIA Director William Burns  Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Jan. 2023) China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by 2027
Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command  predicted war by 2027
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday (Oct., 2022) Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or a potentially a 2023 window
Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Oct., 2022) on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner (July, 2022) “only a matter of time”
Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command 2025
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the Center for a New American Security, before 2027,  a crisis or incident that could spiral out of control
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.”
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) 2025
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.)  the 2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but “highly unlikely,”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey 2025 ,  a“bad judgment”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Nov. 2022)  it will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
news.yahoo.com/general-memo-spurs-debate-could-110000282.html     news.yahoo.com/china-says-balloon-flying-over-152021436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game  ◆ TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control.  ◆ Asia Nikkei, 2023-1-6: reserves, supposedly 2 million strong, are a paper force, with "no way whatsoever" to reinforce existing units in combat The American SPECTATOR, 2023-1-5: coming crisis over Taiwan is now popularly treated as a foregone conclusion...What is more likely is that China will wait a while longer, probably until the early 2030s. Newsweek 2023-1-5: Russia's Defeat in Ukraine Will Deter China Attack on Taiwan: Ex-NATO Chief The Hill, 2023-1-3: America's ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan gets more dangerous by the day Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command Forbes, 2023-1-2: Economics, often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride (questions of sovereignty and  the hyper-sensitivities of China's leadership The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to eruptTaiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people      full text

 

◆  According to 2023's “Asia's 50 Best Restaurants, Taiwan ranks No. 9 among Asia's countries, Taipei ranks No. 17 among Asia's cities, Taipei's Mume restaurant ranks No. 45 in top 50 restaurants, the number of Taiwan's restaurants entering top 50 is the least in recent 10 years.  Taipei's Logy ranks No. 57, but its chef is a Japanese.  Tapei's Adachi Sushi ranks No. 87, Kaohsiung's Liberte ranks No. 96.

 Asia’s 50 Best Restaurants 2023
theworlds50best.com/asia/en/list/1-50

rank

countries with the most wins

 number of restaurants selected rank

cities with the most wins

number of restaurants selected
1 China   (Hong Kong 5, Shanghai 2, ShenZhen 1, Macau 2, Beijing 1) 11 1

Bangkok (Thailand )

9
2 Japan    (Tokyo 7,  Osaka 1, Wakayama 1, Kyoto 1) 10 2

Singapore

9
3 Thailand  (Bangkok 9) 9 3 Tokyo (Japan) 7
4 Singapore 7 4 Hong Kong (China) 5
5 S. Korea 4 5 Seoul (S. Korea) 4
6 India 3 6 Shanghai (China) 2
7 Philippines 2 7 Macau (China) 2
8 Vietnam 1 8 Manila (Philippines) 2
9 Taiwan 1 9 Osaka (Japan) 1
No.1 Le Du (Thai.), No.2 Sezanne (Japan), No.3 Nusara (Thai.), 4. Den (Japan), 5 Gaggan Anans (Thai.)...No. 45 Mume (Taiwan Taipei)

 

Bangkok has long been considered a world capital when it comes to street food. But these days, its fine dining scene is proving to be just as alluring.  Though most of the winners on the list are fine dining restaurants, one street food eatery managed to break through the pack – Bangkok’s Michelin-starred Raan Jay Fai

10 Wakayama (Japan) 1
11 Mumbai (India) 1
12 New Delhi (India) 1
13 Chennai (India) 1
14 ShenZhen (China) 1
15 Kyoto (Japan) 1
16 Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam) 1
17 Taipei (Taiwan) 1
18 Beijing (Chn) 1