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  Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

NewsWeek, 2023-9-29 A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.  Policy experts in the U.S.  have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so
CNN, 2023-9-28 While the Taiwan Strait might be too shallow for submarines to operate in, the vessels could be most useful when deployed to target Chinese warships in the Bashi channel – which separates Taiwan from the Philippines – and the waters between Taiwan and Japan’s westernmost islands.  China has planned for a major naval engagement with the US outside the first island chain, around the Philippine Sea”.
BBC, 2023-9-28 National University of Singapore Drew Thompson:  the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China...The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
Defense News, 2023-9-29 Reuters has also reported that that Taiwan had recruited engineers and retired submariners from the U.S., U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, Spain and Canada to work on the program
Forbes, 2023-9-28 In CSIS's war games, Chinese escorts, aircraft and submarines usually sank around a fifth of the deployed subs every three or four days throughout the weekslong war. In the end, perhaps a dozen or more subs lay wrecked at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, tombs for thousands of submariners.
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30 Some see the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program as a poor use of scarce defense resources on a prestige project ;   The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.

 

News:    TIME, 2023-9-28:  If China's military responds to a Lai (Ching-te) victory in January by challenging Taiwanese defenses much closer to the island's shores,...Beijing and Washington could find themselves managing a crisis neither side really wants but can't avoid    Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,... the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc.   The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute warns that the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and lethal set of capabilities than it does nowChina has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained.   full text

 

  New York post, 2023-9-19: China would have to do a combined amphibious and airborne air assault operation, which is an incredibly complicated joint operation to be able to do   Reuters, 2023-9-19: Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says  New York Times, 2023-9-18:  China sends record number of military planes near Taiwan. China is also testing and eroding the island's vigilance, seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's military might.  Taiwan expert: The sorties appeared to signal “China's dissatisfaction with the recent developments in strengthening military and economic and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States”  Financial Times, 2023-9-15:  opinion polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's assurances.  Taiwan opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments, Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more explicit backing from Washington.    Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-9-14:  Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy  given the inevitable global backlash.   The capital city can reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA forces, every Taiwan citizen should be a resistance member : Preparing for a Chinese occupation      Bloomberg,2023-9-12:  a separate report to lawmakers: Taiwan's Defense Ministry warned that China's ruling Communist Party may “push forward the process of solving the Taiwan issue” during President Xi Jinping’s third term, which runs to 2027.    Military, 2023-9-13: By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan   Associated Press, 2023-9-9: The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping territorial claims   Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.   CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations   full text

 

China's economic crisis     news.yahoo.com/china-economic-woes-could-raise-220300203.html  Michael Martina   businessinsider.com/joe-biden-china-unlikely-invade-taiwan-economy-property-crisis-g20-2023-9   Huileng Tan

Reuters, 2023-9-12 :  the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China says China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan
Washington Examiner, Insider, 2023-9-11: Biden says China is unlikely to invade Taiwan now because Beijing just too busy with its own economic crisis

 

News:   Reuters, 2023-8-31:  The outcome of the closely watched January 2024 vote will set the tone for Taipei's tumultuous relationship with Beijing Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30:  Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure.   full text

 

 Taiwanese Divided on US Military Sales /  VOA News , 2023-9-6

 66.5% of the respondents support U.S. military sales to Taiwan
43.1% of respondents think U.S. military sales to Taiwan will further increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Whereas 37.8% think U.S. military sales can help maintain peace between China and Taiwan
Taiwan rarely has the autonomy to decide what types of weapons it wants to purchase from the U.S. Rather, the deliverables often seem to have been “decided” for Taiwan

there are often deeper political meanings behind U.S. military sales to Taiwan.  These military sales should be conducted more discreetly, rather than publicly announcing these programs

 the U.S. provides more offensive weapons for Taiwan through military sales, they believe it increases the risks of prompting a potential Chinese military attack on Taiwan.

voanews.com/a/taiwanese-divided-on-us-military-sales-amid-growing-chinese-threats/7256298.htm

 

 

 


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pic. : This websites-group was ranked No.1  "review Taiwan"  on Yandex, 2023-9-13, 2023-9-6, 2023-9-1

 

 

 

BBC, 2023-8-29 : Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.  Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.   full text

 

Using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program to transfer military aid to Taiwan will likely infuriate China.

USA China

 ♣ CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations

 ♣ Bloomberg (2023-8-31): The Foreign Military Financing mechanism covers international organizations as well as nations
 ♣ The Hill (2023-9-1): the first time the U.S. has provided military assistance under FMF to Taiwan and the second time it's given it to a non-nation-state, the first being to the African Union.

 ♣ The Hill (2023-9-1): China says it 'deplores' US military transfer to Taiwan

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Reuters, 2023-8-25: Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft entering Taiwan's "response" zone,  Taiwan could not judge whether China's drills had formally ended  (Reuters, 2023-8-26: Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone, which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.)   Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves. Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25: analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. TIME, 2023-8-21 :  China stops importing Taiwan's mangoes after Beijing announced naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S., having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an interview with Bloomberg  Washington Post, 2023-8-20:  The election of a third consecutive DPP administration would confirm that Beijing's attempts to bring Taiwan under its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing.  Although Lai is currently leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top contenders chose one to rally around New York Times, 2023-8-19:  In warning to Taiwan, China Announces joint air and sea drills, so far, China's response after Mr. Lai's visit appears more muted than it was in April, or last August, Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's favor by pushing more support to his party in presidential election Chicago Tribune, 2023-8-14: As tensions build between China and Taiwan, tensions continue to ratchet up between Beijing and Washington, with both sides wanting to appear tough to deter the other from taking military action. The result, however, is making war more likely, not less. The United States must do something to lower tensions to maintain the peace while also retaining the ability to defend our interests   full text

 

US Congress CRS Report, 2023-8-24  - Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481

 Civil military relations are strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, ... Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. It is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear ...
persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack.  If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond
many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack.  observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.

 

  Bloomberg, 2023-8-14:  Taiwan's Election Is All About War...  it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over"   full text

 

 

  Lai Ching-te  'stopover'

New York Times (2023-8-14 news brief, 2023-8-12) A Taiwanese presidential contender walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/asia/taiwan-us-china-lai-ching-te.html
NPR (2023-8-12) Taiwan's Vice President is stopping by the U.S. this week, under China's watchful eyeU.S officials pointedly refer to Lai's trip as a transit, meaning a stop for logistical, rather than political, purposes.   For Lai, this trip is especially to break out of some of the suspicions the U.S. may have about him and prove he can engage with the U.S.
DW (2023-8-12) Beijing labeled Lai  — a separatist and a "troublemaker."
BBC ( 2023-8-14) China accused Washington of engaging Taiwan in political activities under the guise of a stopover.  Mr Lai's visit comes at a low point in US-China relations, with Taiwan emerging as the biggest flashpoint.  Mr Lai has previously called himself - to Beijing's displeasure - a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence".  bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66495368?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA)   Derek Cai
France 24 ( 2023-8-14) China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington
CNN (2023-8-13) China calls him a “troublemaker through and through.”. China deplores and strongly condemns the US decision to arrange the so-called ‘stopover'.
 AFP (2023-8-13) China on Sunday vowed "resolute and forceful measures" over a weekend trip by Taiwan Vice President William Lai to the United States

Lai has been far more outspoken about independence than Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, to whom Beijing is already hostile as she refuses to accept its view that Taiwan is a part of China.   news.yahoo.com/china-vows-forceful-response-over-035750831.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 Wall Street Journal (2023-8-12) China's leaders have more to think about as they weigh a response.  While it serves Beijing's interests to have better relations with Washington at this moment,” that doesn't mean the Chinese leadership would shy from taking strong action on Taiwan, if they deem it necessary  msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-visit-by-taiwan-vice-president-puts-china-in-a-bind/ar-AA1fbCxI   Chun Han Wong, Joyu Wang, Charles Hutzler
VOA (2023-8-11) experts think Beijing will launch a military response to Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., but the scale will depend on how "official-looking" his trip is. "This includes who he meets with, what he says, and how public those meetings are" ... any reaction deemed too provocative could help increase Lai's chance of winning the election. However, she added that Beijing also worries about sending the wrong signal if its responses are deemed too weak.  voanews.com/a/analysts-us-taipei-aim-to-keep-taiwan-vp-transit-stops-low-key-/7220905.html

 

 

  European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8:  the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military.   New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. New York Times, 2023-8-8:  the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts  — is under a shadow.  This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct  JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report  about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression."    New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will  not  not  invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"    The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems".    full text

 

Pew Research, 2023-8-11: 28-48, Taiwan seen more favorably than not across 24 countries
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/11/taiwan-seen-more-favorably-than-not-across-24-countries/

  unfavorable favorable
US 30 65
UK 25 60
Nederland 35 52
Germany 28 50
France 26 49
Japan 14 82
S. Korea 19 77
Australia 27 71
India 43 37
Greece 30-28, Hungary 25-25, Spain 37-38,  S Africa 40-23, Brazil 34-29, 24-country median 28-48

 

 Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen.     Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year."  , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper     full text

 

 

#MeToo in Taiwan

New York Times, 2023-7-27 our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html 
Reuters, 2023-7-28 Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence.   victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships.   .reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/   Sarah Wu   
New York Times, 2023-6-25  torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions about the state of women's rights on an island democracy ... entrenched sexism that leaves women vulnerable at work, and a culture that is quick to blame victims and cover up accusations against powerful men.  nytimes.com/2023/06/25/world/asia/taiwan-harassment-metoo.html

 

   The coming China war over Taiwan   Fox News, 2023-7-28  

 The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place.

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it's too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler

 

   What would be the signs that a PLA invasion is in the planning ?

Economist, 2023-7-27: China would want to secure adequate supplies of commodities, namely energy ( coal, gas, oil - one of the best indicators ), food and metals (unusual metal-buying patterns,  export controls on rare-earth metals  ) and to reduce the country's dependence on the dollar. China might move its foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars and euros and into assets such as gold,  and probably tighten its capital controls, they also might freeze all foreign funds in China, etc   economist.com/china/2023/07/27/could-economic-indicators-signal-chinas-intent-to-go-to-war
National Interest , 2022-11-21:  there would be reliable indications, including surging production of various missiles, rockets, and key munitions, China would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions and would start preparing the population psychologically for the cost of the war....
They might take a strategic advantage, such as by catching the rest of the world off-guard, capitalizing on the chaos and distraction in other countriesnationalinterest.org/feature/china’s-new-politburo-has-taiwan-its-crosshairs-205909
Japan Times, 2022-10-18: some of indications could be a mix of both short- and long-term economic steps to try and insulate the Chinese economy from external vulnerabilities and to minimize China's dependency on the world while maximizing the world's dependency on China.       Short-term economic indicators are more likely to signal Beijing’s intent. These could include a number of abrupt steps such as freezing foreign financial assets within China, quickly repatriating Chinese assets held abroad, a surge in stockpiling emergency supplies such as medicine or key technology inputs and a suspension of key exports such as critical minerals, refined petroleum products or food. japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/18/asia-pacific/signs-china-invasion-taiwan/

 

BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. Financial Times, 2023-7-26:  Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar  Financial Times, 2023-7-24:  so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself.  Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.  But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan'    National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet YellenIf reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.    Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine    National Interest, 2023-7-15:  With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...  it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation     CNN, 2023-7-14:  it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island. The longer the delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too slim to achieve success if its forces move too late  ◆  Reuters, 2023-7-14:  US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan  in the coming yearsMilley said the United States was looking at whether it needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the Asia Pacific.  ◆   Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  "Our gender culture still hasn't caught up with the laws", said a DPP legislator , "Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming."  West Point, Modern War Institute, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war... systems (a range of cyber fires, electromagnetic attack, and long-range precision missile systems...) are the primary means to achieve decisive advantage.   full text

 

 CNN, 2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General  summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow.   Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  The Guardian, 2023-7-9: while the war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000) of 2 million reservists are thought to be combat-ready...  the drills lack urban warfare or modern weaponry instruction. Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.  The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.  While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield".   Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,... ◆  le Monde, 2023-7-5:  many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ RAND, Jun. 2023: Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days  — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China... would allow it to eventually subjugate the island. Economist, 2023-6-29:   if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed.   CSIS.org, 2023-6-29:  Fundamentally, both the August and April exercises were suggestive of an “encirclement” of Taiwan using PLA Navy forces;  the April exercises were no less significant than those in August. AFP, Moscow Times, 2023-6-28:Taiwan sighted two Russian frigates sailing off its eastern coast. The presence of Russian warships is unusual,  Interfax reported the warships were performing tasks as part of a long-range sea crossing, which included "a simulated naval battle   full text

 

News:     TIME, 2023-6-26:  Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their operations away from China FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's cooperation against  Lai Ching-te FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  56% Americans would support an increase in U.S. military presence as a way to discourage China from invading Taiwan and 30% indicated they would oppose such a move, according to the results of a Reagan Institute poll Reuters, 2023-6-24: Taiwan says Chinese air force approached close to island's coast  Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-6-23: The United States needs to bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait without provoking China.  A heavy-handed U.S. approach could come with a heavy cost. Avoiding conflict will take great diplomatic nuance.    Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21:  China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. G7 responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support economic countermeasures against China and opt for a de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion would likely be divided    Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:  If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific    Economist, 2023-6-19:  Chinese officials pay much attention to online opinion. When it comes to a war with Taiwan, many Chinese urge caution, even some ardent nationalists; according to a recent paper, even if China were to decide to go to war by next January, only 55% said that would be acceptable   FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ; Over the last year, the U.S. and China saw more than $700 billion in trade which according to Blinken constituted the highest level between the two countries on record. He reiterated  that it would be "disastrous" for the U.S. to decouple and stop all trade and investment with China.   Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction.  For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ...     CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait   full text

 

  Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-21: Biden calls Xi a dictator, jeopardizing US-China thaw
  USA Today, 2023-6-21:  China threatens to undermine his administration's efforts to "thaw" intensifying relations.
  Reuters, 2023-6-21: expert at Fudan University: it  would not erase what Blinken had achieved on his China visit.


 National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States   L.A. Times, 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's relationship with China is one of the most contentious and defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status quo, politicians are deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own parties.

 

National Interest, 2023-6-20  nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
“How confident are you that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to start a war against Taiwan?”a web survey (implemented by Macromill Embrain)

  overall DPP KMT TPP
not at all confident 26.61% 3.23% 55.63% 32.12%
not very confident 37.92 23.12 29.38 48.91
fairly 27.96 48.92 12.50 16.79
very confident 7.51 24.73 2.50 2.19

 

#MeToo  in Taiwan

 CNN, 2023-6-10 The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment.   Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else.  Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles,  will it be the real #MeToo moment.  edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html
 The Guardian, 2023-6-8 The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.   theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk
Washington Post, 2023-6-7  The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang.  people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment. msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH    Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin 
Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7 Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang  Wenxin Fan
 ABC Australia, 2023-6-24 Young women, since they were children, they are already taught to protect themselves, or try to tolerate this kind of inconvenience (accept harassment).  Sexual harassment and sexual assault are prevalent in all kinds of power relationships. The impact of the Netflix show Wave Makers (造浪者)has been huge, and it resonated with young Taiwanese women, s
criptwriter Chien says the show struck a chord because of the prevalence of sexual harassment in Taiwanese society. 
 
abc.net.au/news/2023-06-24/taiwan-metoo-movement-triggered-by-netflix-show-wave-makers/102505174 
  SCMP, 2023-6-11 NTU prof.  Tso Chen-dong: the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights.  DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights. scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3223609/wave-metoo-cases-threatens-engulf-taiwans-ruling-democratic-progressive-party   Lawance Chung

 

economist / The world's most liveable cities in 2023
City liveability index, Mar. 2023   -   Taipei ranks world No. 65, Asia's No.14

score

cities in Asia

90+ Melbourne, Sydney, Aucland, Adelaide, Osaka(Japan), Perth, Tokyo(Japan), Brisbane, Wellington, Singapore
 80-90 Seoul(Korea), Hong Kong(Chn),  Busan(Korea), Taipei (Taiwan), Kaohsiung, Taichung
60-80 Noumea, Nantong, SuZhou, Beijing, ShenYang, Shanghai, etc
top 5 cities: Vienna 98.4,  Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney, Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96
Score out of 100*  five categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education and infrastructure.

 

 

 

 

 
  
   
 

pic.  : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-8, 2023-6-4, 2023-5-23, 5-21; No.3 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-5-2, 2023-3-26

 

 

 

 No.2  "review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2023-1-1,2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-20, 2022-11-15, 2022-11-6 ; No.1  "review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-25, 2021-9-29, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-15, 2021-8-5, 2021-7-24, 2021-7-9, 2021-7-4, 2021-6-22, 2021-6-15, 2021-5-31, 2021-5-1, 2020-12-20   ;   No.2 at 2022-8-12, 2022-7-21,  2022-5-25, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-12, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-25, 2021-9-19; No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google,  2022-5-25; "Taiwan reviews" among top ranks on US Google, 2022-08-23, 2022-08-24; No.3"review Taiwan" on Google, 2022-9-30, 2022-9-23; No.4 "Taiwan reviews" on Google, 2023-4-30

 


pic.  : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-3, 2023-6-
9
 

 

 

pic.  : No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-10, 2023-7-8

pic.  : No.1 "review Taiwan" on Swisscows of Switzerland, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-22

 


 

 

News:  USNI, 2023-6-7:  Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are "rumors about slow production" ... Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - maintaining a traditional naval force that could leave it open to invasion or pursuing an asymmetric one Sydney Morning Herald, 2023-6-7: Anthony Albanese said Australia's goal was “not to prepare for war but to prevent it”. The more willing we are to support Taiwan's security, the less likely it is we would ever need to fight for Taiwan   CNN, 2023-6-2:  the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report:  there is no evidence the war in Ukraine has “altered Chinese thinking on the timescale or methodology” for a possible attack on Taiwan.   Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown  Washington Post, 2023-5-31:  Why are tensions so high?  China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979.   IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way    full text

 

Elbridge  Colby, a leading voice for a new pivot to Asia.” John Walters, Hudson Institute CEO
He wants to see the U.S. concentrate efforts on deterring war in the Pacific, even if that means abandoning European interests. the U.S. simply does not have the capability for building the alliance system Walters envisions or supplying it with the requisite arms and ammunition to fight wars with two great powers at once; It will take well into the 2030s before we're in much better shape; before Chinese leader Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan, the U.S. should put in place immediate measures to attack the key segments of that CCP economic and military power Ukraine Is No Distraction From Asia.”;  the US can fend off Russian and Chinese revanchism simultaneously; aggression must be met by strong American alliances with key countries, including both Taiwan and Ukraine; the kinds of weapons needed in Ukraine and Taiwan are different enough that supplying one will not substantially affect the other; most Republicans on Capitol Hill remain strong supporters of UkraineUkraine will help generate (US) domestic resolve to fight for Taiwan. 
washingtonexaminer.com/news/inside-right-debate-ukraine-taiwan  2023-6-1

 

The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. Reuters, 2023-5-27:  Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says  Washington Post, 2023-5-29:  Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places   The Guardian, 2023-5-24:  Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai  has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war The strategy seems to be working. Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17  :  faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.  The Hill, 2023-5-17:  Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.  Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence  New York Times, 2023-5-11:  Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-5-9: Threatening to destroy TSMC is unnecessary and would also help China sow distrust among Taiwanese people toward the US and undermine Taiwan's will to resist Chinese aggression...China's determination to achieve reunification would be just as strong if Taiwan were a poor, agrarian society Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11:  the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.  —   deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11:  Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house”  full text

 

Reuters Report (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023/taiwan)
Trust in Taiwan's news overall: 28%; Trust in news I use: 35%; Trust score in 2017/2018: 31%, score in 2022/2023: 28%.   Due to the intense competition in the media market and the interventions of owners, trust in news (28%) remains among the lowest in our survey. In the polarised media landscape, many brands with political colours are less trusted, whereas business publications tend to have higher levels of trust. PTS (55%) remains one of the most trusted brands this year, after internal improvements.

 RSF, <Reporters Sans Frontieres>, France, 2023: Taiwan's World Press Freedom Index - score 75.54, rank 35.

 

Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism  Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said   le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  The Nation, 2023-4-26:  A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it.   AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering.  Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan.   CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military   New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States  Brookings, 2023-4-15:  Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens    New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆  TIME, 2023-4-12:  Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island. BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid  New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China  New York Times, 2023-4-5:  Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China   Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The  DPP has criticised KMT's  "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict  Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners   AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington  Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23:  to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”  Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter    full text

 

Taiwan's President  is expected to meet Speaker McCarthy, Beijing will decide how strongly it wants to respond

New York Times, 2023-3-29 President Tsai Ing-wen risks a show of force from Beijing Beijing just lured Honduras to abandon diplomatic ties with Taipei in what many saw as pre-emptive punishment for her trip. nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/asia/taiwan-president-us-china.html
Bloomberg, 2023-3-29 Tsai is unlikely to use this moment to “push boundaries" , partly to avoid "accusations of being provocative by Taiwanese voters.". Any Tsai meeting with McCarthy "puts the ball in Beijing's court"  news.yahoo.com/china-warns-taiwan-leader-mccarthy-031352507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Washington Post, 2023-3-29 When Honduras switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last week, it put the diplomatic future of Taiwan in a more precarious position washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/honduras-taiwan-china-allies-relations/
Newsweek, 2023-3-31 "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing,""At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution."  msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-two-taiwan-trips-mean-for-fate-of-most-dangerous-us-china-issue/ar-AA19komh  Tom O'Connor
Bloomberg, 2023-3-31 The expected California meeting with McCarthy was considered a concession: At the request of the Taiwanese government, McCarthy decided to put off a potential trip to Taiwan until after presidential elections next year and instead host Taiwan’s leader on US soil.  msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-tries-to-keep-china-calm-while-taiwans-tsai-visits-the-us/ar-AA19il7y   Jenny Leonard and Cindy Wang
L.A. Times, 2023-3-31 On a sensitive U.S. visit, Taiwan's leader stresses defense and democracy msn.com/en-us/news/world/on-a-sensitive-u-s-visit-taiwan-s-leader-stresses-defense-and-democracy/ar-AA19j0p0   ELLEN KNICKMEYER, MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN and LISA MASCARO
The Guardian, 2023-3-28 (ex president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington.   Taiwan caught between superpowers as rival leaders visit China and US theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/taiwan-leaders-visit-china-us-ma-ying-jeou-tsai-ing-wenTaipei

 

Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive. Reuters, 2023-3-13:  In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China U.S. Naval War College  - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system,  the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them.  Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation. Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people     full text

 

Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns

AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/   ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy.   msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h

 

  Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning Foreign Policy in focus, 2023-3-2:  if Beijing did decide to invade Taiwan after 2026, TSMC’s intellectual capital, in the form of its top computer scientists, would undoubtedly be on outbound flights for Phoenix, leaving little more than a few concrete shells and some sabotaged equipment behind...significant chip factory projects being put in place ... Add it all up and the U.S. is already about halfway to the “minimum of three years and a $350 billion investment… to replace the Taiwanese [chip] foundries  ◆  USNI, 2023-3-2:  Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.  ◆ Reuters, 2023-2-28: The threat of China invading Taiwan has moved to the centre of global money managers' risk radars and is factoring in their investment decisions,"China wouldn't have to invade Taiwan or actually get hot to just cause a stir in that part of the market"   ◆  Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ...   full text

 

Pew Research org., 2023-3-2
US respondents' views about a hypothetical conflict between China, Taiwan differ by question wording

  a conflict between China and Taiwan China invade Taiwan Taiwan declared Independence, China invaded
support China 8% 7 10
support Taiwan 45% 49 40
remain neutral 47% 44 50
when the scenario involves Taiwan declaring independence. Under this hypothetical, 46% of Democratic respondents say the U.S. should support Taiwan, compared with 28% of Republicans.
pewresearch.org/decoded/2023/03/02/testing-survey-questions-about-a-hypothetical-military-conflict-between-china-and-taiwan/

 

 

 

 

pic.  This websites-group was ranked No.1 by keyword "review Taiwan"  on ecosia of Europe (Berlin Germany), 2023-8-8, 2023-4-30, 2023-4-15, 2023-3-23, 2023-3-20, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-16, 2022-9-3, 2022-8-23, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-21,  2022-2-3,  2021-10-20, 2021-9-29, 2021-9-19, 2021-8-22, 2021-8-5, 2021-7-24, 2021-5-26, 2021-5-9, 2021-4-18,  3-26-2021, 3-20-2021, 7-24-2020, 5-13-2020, 1-10-2020

 


pic. 
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  New York Times, 2023-2-27: U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods   Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief:  Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan   Asia Society Policy Institute, Feb. 2023: evidence from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in 2022 augurs against an invasion or all-out blockade in the short term. PRC might seizure of one or more of the islands currently controlled by the ROC. Japan Times, 2023-2-24: Japan will, at best, be a (possibly reluctant) follower of a U.S.-led coalition to defend Taiwan...In case Chinese President Xi Jinping attempts to annex Taiwan, the stakes of confronting Beijing will be much higher for Japan and other U.S. partners than facing Moscow is for Europeans. New York Times, 2023-2-22: TSMC might have been forced to set up a factory in the United States because of political considerations, but so far, the Phoenix project has yielded very little benefit for TSMC or Taiwan...citing lofty costs.    New York Times, 2023-2-22: Gallagher argued that Taiwan could not be expected to build defense formidable enough to deter Beijing...without the US making good on a backlog of purchase order   WSJ, Fox News, 2023-2-23: The U.S. is preparing to send 100 to 200 troops to Taiwan for training amid rising tensions with China; The Wall Street Journal described the planned troop increase in the coming months as the largest deployment of American forces in Taiwan in decades. TIME, 2023-2-23: Winning the tech war with China depended entirely upon persuading U.S. allies—particularly Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Japan—to follow the U.S. lead and adopt similar export control regulations   Aljazeera, 2023-2-23: CIA Director William Burns recently said although Xi was likely “unsettled” by Russia’s failures in Ukraine, he had still told China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.   Bloomberg, 2023-2-22: Holding off the PLA for two weeks is a key goal of Taiwan's military because it would allow time for the US and other allies to come to its aid. Washington Post, 2023-2-22Our best chance of preventing an invasion of Taiwan, and of essentially preventing World War III, is to put actual hard power on Taiwan Washington Post, 2023-2-20:  growing concern — conviction even — that war between the United States and China could be coming. The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan. Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan  NY Times, 2023-2-15: An active denial strategy that focuses on supplying defensive weapons to U.S. allies and a lower-profile, more agile deployment of U.S. forces in the region would raise the costs of Chinese military action without exacerbating China's own sense of insecurity Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-2-12: the unpredictable nature of ADIZ violations is intended to keep the status quo around Taiwan unstable and ambiguous in order to facilitate strategic surprise  CNN, 2023-2-9: More US firms in Taiwan say they're seeing 'significant disruption' due to rising tension with China - elevated concern from global headquarters, increased shipping, insurance or financial costs, as well as staff anxiety  Bloomberg, 2023-2-5:   the US position on the island remains equivocal. The intention is to avoid provoking Beijing, yet the consequence is to weaken deterrence. Washington Post, 2023-2-3: (China's) state-run People's Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with containing China.   Washington Post, 2023-2-2: Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan   US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch  Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan.  "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade". Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence   WSJ, 2023-1-23: Taiwan is much more important (than Ukraine) to our security and prosperity. Any tanks we can spare should go to Taipei New York Times, 2023-1-21: Glaser warns that symbolic victories may not be worth the cost of provoking China ... "But the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism" said Dan Blumenthal   full text

 

  The Hill, 2023-1-23: the U.S. defense industrial base is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war...How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario? Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"  ◆ USNI, 2023-1-23: Sen. John Cornyn also questioned whether Taiwan could “hold out for a couple of weeks … until the cavalry arrives” for its rescue.  USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia    full text

 

Biden's State of the Union speech - Taiwan war

The Hill, 2023-2-9 Biden's State of the Union speech on Feb. 7 buried these two clear and present dangers simultaneously confronting national security. When is the Biden administration going to recognize that we are essentially in the equivalent of WWIII?
Washington Examiner, 2023-2-1 State of Our Union: Biden's China policy tolerates excessive risks    The Biden administration is playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war.
The Hill, 2023-2-14  In his first State of the Union address in March 2022, President Biden, proclaimed, “In the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment";...  if China invaded Taiwan, would the international order really collapse? Would authoritarianism really spread throughout the globe? Is it in the U.S. interest to come to Taiwan’s defense? Are we prepared to send Americans into harm's way?

 

War On The Rocks, 2023-1-20:  Training, Not Arms Sales, Should Be the New Priority    AFP, 2023-1-21:  Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. CNN, 2023-1-20:  In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. New York Post, 2023-1-14:  the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN, 2023-1-9: CSIS  War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries  ◆The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island.     full text

 

General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025?    The Hill, 2023-2-2, Fox News, 2023-2-4, USA Today, 2023-2-3

US generals, officials, experts, law-makers China invade Taiwan by ?
CIA Director William Burns  Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Jan. 2023) China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by 2027
Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command  predicted war by 2027
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday (Oct., 2022) Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or a potentially a 2023 window
Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Oct., 2022) on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner (July, 2022) “only a matter of time”
Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command 2025
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the Center for a New American Security, before 2027,  a crisis or incident that could spiral out of control
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.”
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) 2025
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.)  the 2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but “highly unlikely,”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey 2025 ,  a“bad judgment”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Nov. 2022)  it will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
news.yahoo.com/general-memo-spurs-debate-could-110000282.html     news.yahoo.com/china-says-balloon-flying-over-152021436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game  ◆ TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control.  ◆ Asia Nikkei, 2023-1-6: reserves, supposedly 2 million strong, are a paper force, with "no way whatsoever" to reinforce existing units in combat The American SPECTATOR, 2023-1-5: coming crisis over Taiwan is now popularly treated as a foregone conclusion...What is more likely is that China will wait a while longer, probably until the early 2030s. Newsweek 2023-1-5: Russia's Defeat in Ukraine Will Deter China Attack on Taiwan: Ex-NATO Chief The Hill, 2023-1-3: America's ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan gets more dangerous by the day Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command Forbes, 2023-1-2: Economics, often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride (questions of sovereignty and  the hyper-sensitivities of China's leadership The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to eruptTaiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people      full text

 

◆  According to 2023's “Asia's 50 Best Restaurants, Taiwan ranks No. 9 among Asia's countries, Taipei ranks No. 17 among Asia's cities, Taipei's Mume restaurant ranks No. 45 in top 50 restaurants, the number of Taiwan's restaurants entering top 50 is the least in recent 10 years.  Taipei's Logy ranks No. 57, but its chef is a Japanese.  Tapei's Adachi Sushi ranks No. 87, Kaohsiung's Liberte ranks No. 96.

 Asia’s 50 Best Restaurants 2023
theworlds50best.com/asia/en/list/1-50

rank

countries with the most wins

 number of restaurants selected rank

cities with the most wins

number of restaurants selected
1 China   (Hong Kong 5, Shanghai 2, ShenZhen 1, Macau 2, Beijing 1) 11 1

Bangkok (Thailand )

9
2 Japan    (Tokyo 7,  Osaka 1, Wakayama 1, Kyoto 1) 10 2

Singapore

9
3 Thailand  (Bangkok 9) 9 3 Tokyo (Japan) 7
4 Singapore 7 4 Hong Kong (China) 5
5 S. Korea 4 5 Seoul (S. Korea) 4
6 India 3 6 Shanghai (China) 2
7 Philippines 2 7 Macau (China) 2
8 Vietnam 1 8 Manila (Philippines) 2
9 Taiwan 1 9 Osaka (Japan) 1
No.1 Le Du (Thai.), No.2 Sezanne (Japan), No.3 Nusara (Thai.), 4. Den (Japan), 5 Gaggan Anans (Thai.)...No. 45 Mume (Taiwan Taipei)

 

Bangkok has long been considered a world capital when it comes to street food. But these days, its fine dining scene is proving to be just as alluring.  Though most of the winners on the list are fine dining restaurants, one street food eatery managed to break through the pack – Bangkok’s Michelin-starred Raan Jay Fai

10 Wakayama (Japan) 1
11 Mumbai (India) 1
12 New Delhi (India) 1
13 Chennai (India) 1
14 ShenZhen (China) 1
15 Kyoto (Japan) 1
16 Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam) 1
17 Taipei (Taiwan) 1
18 Beijing (Chn) 1

 

Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict.   Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still  ◆   New York Times, 2022-12-26: With Record Military Incursions, China Warns Taiwan and U.S.71 military aircraft buzzed the airspace near Taiwan  Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. Foreign Affairs, Feb. 2023:  a consensus is forming in U.S. policy circles that this peace (Taiwan) may not last much longer. Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent.  if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆  War on the Rocks, 2022-12-19:  Biden's National Security Strategy of October 2022 tilted toward strategic ambiguity. ◆  CNN , 2022-12-17:  The population pool is decreasing, so Taiwan is actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs  The Atlantic, 2022-12-14:  in recent years, China has combined those threats and missiles with other forms of pressure, escalating what the Taiwanese call “cognitive warfare”: not just propaganda but an attempt to create a mindset of surrender. ◆  War on the Rocks,2022-12-14: Is China planning to attack Taiwan? a careful consideration of available evidence says NO   The WEEK (UK), 2022-12-4 : A RAND Corporation study predicted that a yearlong war would cut the U.S.'s gross domestic product by 5 to 10 percent — but it would slash China's by 25 to 35 percent.  The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury    full text

 

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China

WSJ, 2022-12-27 a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of  growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP2022-12-27 The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however,  only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27  Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27 It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant   washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28 The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
 
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27 the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml    12-27

 

Economist, 2022-11-29:  many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China   Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.   Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.  Bloomberg, 2022-11-26: Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections ◆Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection  Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games. Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023?  Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas  Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-22: In Taiwan, a Shaky Status Quo Prevails; The people here have little desire either to yield to Beijing or to provoke a war Fortune, 2022-11-19:  U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely Washington Post, 2022-11-13: Congress seeks to arm Taiwan quickly before the bullets start flying CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14:  The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China’s goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system CNN, 2022-11-13:  Asked during a news conference whether he would reiterate his commitment to defend Taiwan militarily directly to Xi, Biden demurred. NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Taiwan is the top issue. Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis  is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war Washington Post, 2022-11-10: Beijing might also resort to force to stem what it sees ... a growing Taiwan-centric identity — as well as deepening U.S.-Taiwan security ties SCMP, 2022-11-10: General Mark Milley vows military support for Taiwan Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition Newsweek, 2022-11-8: Beijing's forces have "a lot of work to do" before attempting what would be one of the most difficult military campaigns in modern history ◆ USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade   The Atlantic, 2022-11-7: Because Taiwan is an island, it will be difficult to resupply in the event of hostilities; Taiwan needs support now National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution  between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy Washington Post, 2022-11-3: Taiwan is sounding an alarm about Emperor Xi...time is running out to do what's needed to avoid war FoxNews, Reuters, Hill,Vice, 2022-10-31: US to Put Nuclear-Capable B52s in Australia as Taiwan Invasion Fears Grow ◆ NEWS (Australia),2022-10-30: The lessons of the Russian war against Ukraine shows that China militarily needs much more time to strengthen and revamp its war-fighting establishment to address the glaring weaknesses and gaps Fortune, 2022-10-30: China's Xi Jinping now has 'unlimited power' and could use Taiwan as a distraction from 'internal problems' Washington Post, 2022-10-28: Taiwan, missiles and spying set to be China’s priorities under new Xi term WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28:U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan CNN, 2022-10-27:  A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future  full text

 

  Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

CNN, 2022-12-9 Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’  /  TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US.  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html 
USA Today, 2022-12-9 America just won a major victory over China. If China seized control of Taiwan's semiconductor factories, the global economic loss would be "mutually assured destruction."  usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/12/09/biden-tsmc-semiconductor-arizona-win-us-over-china/10847994002/  
Financial Times, 2022-12-12 TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that  TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes  ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9
New York Times, 2022-12-6 In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology  nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html
Reuters, 2022-12 Taiwan seeks to reassure on TSMC commitment to island despite U.S. investment   msn.com/en-us/money/markets/taiwan-seeks-to-reassure-on-tsmc-commitment-to-island-despite-u-s-investment/ar-AA14ZR39
Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly.    finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
TIME, 2022-10-5 Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation.  time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/
New York Times, 2022-9-9 Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times, 2022-8-29 Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it.  Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
 National Interest, 2022-5-15 Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China
VOA News, 2021-5-10 Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.  
Fox News, 2022-8-26  Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue
The Atlantic, 2022-10-3 The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of semiconductor components.  Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution.  theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/  
New York Times, 2022-1-25 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia.  Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States.  nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
 CBS News, 2022-9-25 Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

 
Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips /

 
BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021

Taiwan S. Korea China Other
65% 18% 5% 12%

news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

 
 

 

 

 

 

pic.  : No.1 "review Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia, 2023-6-17

 

 

pic. : This websites-group was ranked No.1  "review Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia, 2023-3-31

 

 

 

 

The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk New York Times, 2022-10-20:  The longer, written version of Xi's speech also stated that China has strengthened its “strategic initiative for China’s complete reunification,” suggesting greater urgency for its future plans   New York Times, 2022-10-19:  the Chinese leader is unlikely to seek military conflict, either to divert attention from domestic challenges or to act before China's power peaks. BBC, 2022-10-18: China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, Blinken says, Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable   Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur USNI news, 2022-10-18:  China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027 CNBC, 2022-10-18: Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress;  the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of operational experience  New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns (at the Congress) against international 'interference' ...China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — ‘strategic patience NPR, 2022-10-18: there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic unification VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies.  The SUN (UK),2022-10-16: an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan. Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... “Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ TIME, 2022-10-11: Defending far-off Taiwan ...is about defending Americans' security, liberties, and prosperity ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake CBS News,2022-10-9: while much of the world thought an invasion might be imminent, polls showed that a majority of Taiwanese think that is unlikely any time soon, if ever..."This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade" NY Times, 2022-10-5:  the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal". Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says NY Times,2022-9-10: Drones -the latest front in China's mounting campaign of intimidation and psychological warfare   NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. abc news, 2022-9-5: Taiwan's weaknesses on that front, chiefly in two areas: its reserves and civilian defense force.NY Times, 2022-8-29: Analysts debate how much protection China’s reliance on Taiwan gives it. Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war  NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action   War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles  passed  over  Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island (in the early stages of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis) NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies.   full text

 

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

♣ Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan   politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html
VICE, 2022-9-28:  no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA  vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

 

Biden "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"  (CBS,2022-9-18)
 CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...  Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html  
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 “Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous",  this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-
20
wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously,  two key concerns here. (1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in face of the existential threat it faces. (2) It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw
Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23 At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that  chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html
The Guardian, 2022-9-21 the president's remarks are provocative to Beijing without providing security to Taiwan or the USBiden is conveying anxiety rather than confidence  ... theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/21/biden-taiwan-comments-china-war-independence
 Politico, 2022-9-19 The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said. politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658
Washington Post, 2022-9-19 Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors with a stronger set of legislative instructions washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/

DW (Germany), 2022-9-19 scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .   lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
 France 24 (France), 2022-9-19  most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approachmsn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19 Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19 Expert Bonnie Glaser: China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans, Prof. Lev Nachman: The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet  /  The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical   washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy  ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill.  China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said.   globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml 
The Conversation  (Australia),
2022-9-20
so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict.    news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html

 

◆ SCMP, 2022-8-21: PLA adopts nuclear deterrence to stop foreign intervention on Taiwan: analysts  ◆ SCMP, 2022-8-23: Beijing's sorties across the median line responded to Taiwan's "diplomatic salami" ; Taiwan was also inching away from the status quo with its history textbooks for schoolchildren downplaying a China-centric view of history on the island   NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. Economist, 2022-8-11: America has changed,...it began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today...  Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend itself Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification  Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect. Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan - have become "acceptable" - because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this becomes the new standard  NY Times, 2022-8-8: China's drills near Taiwan is a sign that Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its airspace and waters New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"  New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine  NY Times, 2022-7-28: The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait. China may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States. NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait  ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan  possibly by force  is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan  le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆  Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan    full text

 

 

Defending Taiwan by Taiwanese ??
some human factors ~

President Tsai I. W. youngsters the public
VICE, 2022-9-28: president's prescriptions have been piecemeal, and there is no national plan to overhaul the military. (developing asymmetric warfare capabilities as US experts advise)

Roll Call, 2022-9-28: ...overhaul its military reservist program — our general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to 50 and their children, will fight against that policy... “It's hard for the ruling party to do it !" Younger voters are a critical base of support for president Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party.
 

New York Times, 2022-6-19: politicians have electoral considerations ( military conscription reform)

United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6:  The policy of
lengthening mandatory military service won't be decided until end of 2022 , obviously the admin. is with an eye to presidential election. udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2

Roll Call, 2022-9-28: Most people do not want to join the military... The March opinion poll : lower levels of support among the 20-24 age group for lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year.
 

China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year.   World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are willing to be on the battlefield.   chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv

 


PS:
By law, all able-bodied men in South Korea must serve 18-21 months in the military under a conscription system; In Israel - men 32 months and women 24 months, minimum.

axios, 2022-9-27:  ...the common belief in Taiwan that if China were to invade, Taiwan would have no choice but to surrender immediately.

Economist, 2022-3-5:  Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence.
 

Global Times, 2022-10-10: a poll shows that only 41.4 percent gave a definite "yes" to the determination to sacrifice themselves to defend the island, according to Taiwan-based media globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276853.shtml

Washington Examiner, 2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps
 

Brookings, 2021-1-22: Only 23% thought that democracy was more important than economic development.  16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than reducing economic inequality.

  ☉ S. Korean presidential candidates have never tried to win the election by shortening mandatory military service (their service days is about 5 times of Taiwan's), but Taiwan's politicians do !   for instance, a ruling party's law-maker Tsai argues what's the reason to lengthen military service !? (see udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2   2022-10-6 )
United Daily,2022-10-10: The Defense chief told the US that the mandatory military service can be lengthen up to 2~3 years, but President Tsai decide it'll be just 1 year at present for electoral considerations.(and not to declare until end of election)    brief udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2

 

FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion  Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20:  Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military reforms FoxNews, 2022-7-7: Chinese diplomat says 'reunification' with Taiwan near Washington Post, 2022-7-3:  these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat /  ...Taiwan politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular New York Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan's defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help.  AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years. CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price ...China is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe" bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq.    full text

 

Taiwan proposes large rise in defense spending specifically to acquire new fighter jets and other projects to boost naval and air capabilities
Taiwan  vs.  US

Taiwan VS. US's "porcupine"  weapons

The US disagrees Taiwan's requests for big-ticket weapons


Financial Times, 2022-8-19:
Intensified military pressure from China has reinforced Taiwan's desire to acquire large weapons platforms such as warships and fighters...widens gulf on procurement policy between Taipei and its main arms supplier

ft.com/content/0d492ad7-9346-4c9e-b186-834c6fc75e85


Economist, 2022-5-10:
These flashier purchases are politically popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone” attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have increased every year
WEEK (UK), 2022-5-12: Taiwan plans to “throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”

United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6 : Taiwan military was forced to accept the concept of "asymmetric war", in last year $80 billions Harpoon Coastal Defense Missile systems were forcibly sent to Taiwan ... but missiles are not good for China's gray-zone war at present.  udn.com/news/story/11091/6665520?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-5-19 : Can the guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block the Russian main force in Ukraine?

The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26 : Urban guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large number of civilian casualties
Foreign Policy, 2020-8-20 : “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue

Financial Times, 2022-5-17: Washington was right to push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion, but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.

 

 

War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: flashy F-16 sales do little to defend Taiwan from China's missile force. warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis-is-just-starting/

Financial Times, 2022-8-19:Washington is trying to force Taipei to prioritise “asymmetric” weapons — systems that exploit an adversary’s weakness instead of trying to match its strengths.

 

Business Insider, 2022-8-21: expensive equipment such as fighter jets, helicopters, and tanks to prepare against a possible Chinese invasion, defense experts say these would easily be destroyed by an attacker, according to the Journal's report. businessinsider.com/taiwan-learns-ukraine-porcupine-strategy-defend-against-china-2022-8

 

New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.
FoxNews, 2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
Politico, 2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out assault from the mainland.
Economist, 2022-5-10: expensive conventional equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines — are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile a "porcupine" strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
Politico, 2022-5-19: the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
WSJ , 2022-5-8: F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
National Interest, 2022-5-15: One important task has been to tailor the provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and Seahawk helicopters.
◆ Foreign Policy , 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance armed drones...

 

 

Washington Post, 2022-8-17: if there's a crisis on Taiwan, Americans say~
(
msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-americans-think-about-china-and-taiwan/ar-AA10L80C)

65 percent support sending additional arms and military equipment to Taiwan
 62 percent support having the U.S. Navy prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan
only 40 percent favor sending U.S. troops to help the Taiwanese government defend itself.
2021 Chicago Council Survey 46 percent of Americans were willing to explicitly commit to defend Taiwan from attack.

 

Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30: Putin is winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much deadlier    New York Times, 2022-5-27: A 2018 congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan NY Times, 2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan NY Times, 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low   New York Times, 2022-5-23: Biden Says U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded, dispensing with the “strategic ambiguity” traditionally favored by American presidents  New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant. Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4: Since the Chinese economy is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous. Washington Post, 2022-5-4:  China won't repeat Putin's Ukraine mistakes in Taiwan. Economist, 2022-4-20: the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days; Taiwan can learn ...Fighting spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe  Japan Times, 2022-4-19: U.S. 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan must end! US policy of ambiguity toward Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by encouraging China to underestimate U.S. resolve...   Wall street Journal, 2022-4-18: Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut Fox News, 2022-4-15: Senator Sasse wrote: Congress plays a foundational role in the interpretation of the Taiwan Relations Act...Chinese spokesman: some in the U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to contain China.  Daily Mail (UK), 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil -  to deter America from intervening in conflict over Taiwan   FoxNews, 2022-4-4: "It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when"  Wall street Journal, 2022-3-29: Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed to upgrade Taiwan's military   New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the danger for Taiwan. TIME, 2022-3-18: most analysts say that the island would not be able to stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine's situation has sparked debate over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid    full text

 

Contrast    Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and 2022

New York Times, 2022-8-5 the U.S. military had ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan to “remain on station” in the region but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait.... during a crisis in 1996, when President Bill Clinton moved aircraft carriers closer to the strait.  (PS: and conducted large scale drills  zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/台灣海峽飛彈危機 ) nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-drills.html
New York Times, 2022-8-4 ... failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago.
  USA Today, 2022-8-6 National Security Council:U.S. would postpone intercontinental ballistic missile test scheduled... reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception news.yahoo.com/china-halts-climate-military-ties-152347684.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
   Global Times (China), 2022-8-5 the US Navy's Ronald Reagan carrier strike group retreated hundreds of kilometers eastward overnight, after the PLA announced live-fire exercise zones east of the island

 

China's Missiles over Taiwan  in 2022-8-5

  CNN, 2022-8-4 missiles flying over the island marked a significant escalation
New York Times, 2022-8-3 China's CCTV stated that one of the missiles flew over Taiwan, marking another escalation of Chinese pressure on the island and risking serious miscalculation.

 

Politico, 2022-3-14: Taiwan's military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068 billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement Economist, 2022-3-5:  Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence    Washington Post, 2022-3-4: Taiwan's leaders try to calm fears over Ukraine invasion, but citizens worry their island will be next Economist, 2022-2-26:  Parallels with Taiwan colour Asian views of the war in Ukraine - Some fear a Chinese invasion has become more likely  New York Times, 2022-2-23: With some seeing parallels to Ukraine, Taiwan steps up its defenses  CNN, 2022-2-3: China's leaders may be watching Ukraine with an eye on Taiwan USA Today, Yahoo, 2022-2-10, "Chinese Taipei" , the label implies a link to China... younger people have said they feel increasingly distant culturally from the other side. Brookings, 2022-2-7: why is unification so unpopular in Taiwan? It's the PRC political system; A majority of our respondents — 56% — said Taiwanese culture was similar to Chinese culture.  72% rated China's government as at least somewhat unfriendly. SCMP, 2022-2-12: “China's theory of victory is that... punishment and intimidation would eventually inflict enough pain and psychological stress that Taiwan would capitulate to Beijing's rule,”  Guardian, NPR, Foxnews, CNN, 2022-1-28: China's ambassador to US warns of possible military conflict over Taiwan Foreign Affairs, 2022-2-1: the United States is on track to lose a war over Taiwan. The US needs Battle Force 2025. New York Times, 2022-1-25: China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States. Washington Post, 2022-1-24: Defending Taiwan is a worthy goal. But are we ready for heavy casualties? it would be a grave mistake for the United States to promise to defend Taiwan without preparing its public — and its soldiers — for the tough fight they could face ◆ New York post, 2022-1-21: Rep. Michael McCaul predicts Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Winter Olympics  New York times, 2022-1-19: China's Growing Menace Hardens Island's Identity...60+% identify as solely Taiwanese France24, NY Post, Daily Mail(UK), 2021-12-30: China warns US will pay 'unbearable price' for backing Taiwan      full text

 

 China published a white paper titled
"The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era"

GT, 2022-8-10 the wellbeing of the people in Taiwan hinges on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation... it will create huge opportunities for social and economic development in Taiwan and bring tangible benefits to the people of Taiwanglobaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272637.shtml
Global Times, 2022-8-24 The latest white paper actually signals an invitation to the Taiwan compatriots to participate in the future institutional arrangements,...Ironically, the DPP does not allow Taiwan people to participate in the institutional arrangements after reunification   globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273805.shtml
NY Times, 2022-8-15  The 2000 paper said nine times that negotiations between Taiwan and China to determine that framework would be conducted on “equal footing,” or other similar language. But that pledge appeared only once in the new paper    nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/asia/china-taiwan-us.html
 Reuters, 2022-8-10 A line in the 2000 white paper that said "anything can be negotiated" as long as Taiwan accepts that there is only one China and does not seek independence, is missing from the latest white paper.  reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-withdraws-promise-not-send-troops-taiwan-after-unification-2022-08-10/
Forbes, Reuters, 2022-8-10 ...in two previous white papers on Taiwan, in 1993 and 2000, that it "will not send troops or administrative personnel to be based in Taiwan" after achieving unification ... is missing from the latest white paper.
ABC news , Australia,
2022-8-1
1
China says there are "profound historical and cultural ties" with Taiwan..."Its economy is highly complementary with that of the mainland."...Taiwanese citizens who would "enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region".   msn.com/en-au/news/australia/why-does-china-want-taiwan-when-its-already-so-big-and-rich-the-answer-is-about-more-than-land-and-money/ar-AA10z5KJ
 NBC, 2022-8-10 ... reiterated its desire for “peaceful reunification.” But it did not rule out the use of force as a “last resort taken under compelling circumstances,” without specifying what those circumstances might be   nbcnews.com/news/world/is-taiwan-worried-china-threat-invasion-pelosi-visit-rcna41964
United Daily (聯合報), 2022-8-11 這是更為強硬的表態,除了對內部十四億人有所交代,也對國際社會明確堅定表達北京看法,同時也想加大對台軟、硬兩手力度 udn.com/news/story/10930/6528208?from=udn_ch2cate6638sub10930_pulldownmenu_v2
China Daily,
2022-8-12
The white paper received a warm response and wide support from Chinese people at home and abroad, and the DPP authorities' misinterpretation cannot deny that "one country, two systems" is a peaceful, democratic, good-faith and win-win solution   chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/12/WS62f58be5a310fd2b29e71b7a.html
full text:  https://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/32832/Document/1728489/1728489.htm

 

 

China's "the largest and most sophisticated military exercises it has ever conducted" (Economist, 2022-8-10)    
WHY ?? 

NY Times, 2022-8-25 They were meant to intimidate Taiwan and the United States   nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/25/world/asia/china-taiwan-conflict-blockade.html
 NY Times, 2022-8-4 Stanford scholar: “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.” nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-exercises.html    
 Business Insider, 2022-8-5  "a show of force to respond to Pelosi's visit" and "to exhibit [China's] displeasure" and "presumably to deter the US or other countries from undertaking visits like this ..."  "readiness to respond to Taiwan provocations"    news.yahoo.com/chinas-missile-launches-military-drills-211102958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
 AFP (France), 2022-8-6 a former CIA Asia analyst:  main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo."The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker's visit."
American University Professor:
Beijing's message was meant to signal that China can alter the power balance in the region if it chooses. "The Chinese seriously believe that the United States has not been respecting their interests on the Taiwan issue"   news.yahoo.com/us-china-relations-risk-long-215317757.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 The Times (UK), 2022-8-6

Chinese jets menace Taiwan in an end to diplomacy

Global Times (Chn), 2022-8-5

Some Taiwan-based media hyped that the mainland's economic punishment could antagonize the public...    "If the mainland opts for economic sanctions, it may terminate the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)"...  Taiwan had a trade surplus of more than $170 billion with the Chinese mainland in 2021.  globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272245.shtml
NY Times, 2022-8-8 not only to intimidate Taiwan and the United States, but also to appease a domestic audience that had seemed disappointed by what it perceived as an insufficiently bellicose posture.  cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220808/china-exercises-taiwan/zh-hant/dual/
BBC, 2022-8-9 this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbours which have rival claims to the South China Sea   bbc.com/news/62460809
PS:New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan  ; Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"


Reuters, 2021-12-20: Chinese spies have penetrated Taiwan's military, Even the security detail of President Tsai Ing-wen has been compromised Hill, 2021-12-20: China could obliterate Taiwan. It could seize Taiwan's tiny islands ... impose an embargo... And it could attempt regime change... NY Times, 2021-12-10: As China has built up its military presence, the U.S. has sought to widen its alliances in the region. A major potential flash point is Taiwan Bloomberg, 2021-12-7: War With Taiwan Would Be a Huge Gamble for China's XiDeaths, economic sanctions and possible defeat are all deterrents Financial Times (UK), 2021-12-5: US defence chief warns of China ‘rehearsals’ for attack on Taiwan; Lloyd Austin cites concern over scale and frequency of Beijing’s military sorties Reuters, 2021-12-3: Blinken says any move by China to invade Taiwan would have 'terrible consequences NY Times, 2021-11-29:  China is developing advanced weapons, leading U.S. officials to push for the first nuclear talks   The Hill, 2021-11-22:  as things currently stand, the U.S. can't deter Beijing WSJ, 2021-11-17: Beijing’s arms buildup and menacing of Taiwan make U.S. directionlessness dangerous for the world.  Rather than risk a less feckless president after Mr. Biden, Mr. Xi may feel he has three years to act. NY Times, 2021-11-15: Biden and Xi meet amid tensions in an effort to keep “communication lines open” and avoid military action — American officials remain concerned that the chances of avoiding conflict may be diminishing. ◆  CBS, 2021-11-16:  Biden's virtual summit with China's Xi focuses on "managing strategic risks" like Taiwan...while there had been no major breakthroughs The Guardian, 2021-11-16: Biden-Xi virtual summit: leaders warn each other over future of Taiwan ...the US is increasingly nervous about the rapid development of Chinese conventional and nuclear military forces. ◆  Reuters, 2021-11-11: U.S. and allies would 'take unspecified action' if Taiwan attacked - Blinken New York Times, 2021-11-10: Europe’s economic interests in China are huge, and the focus on Taiwan is still a minority effort. Europe is both reluctant and badly equipped to get involved militarily in the Indo-Pacific in the face of Washington’s intense focus on deterring China from attacking Taiwan.    full text

 

WHY?   Taiwanese people "don't worry" China's "the largest and most sophisticated military exercises" around Taiwan island ??

n
Daily Express, 2022-8-16: Taiwan's representative to Germany has warned of the risk of an impending attack by China on Taiwan... "They're going to attack us."
n
Libre (Japan), UDN, 2022-8-16: Taiwanese president Tsai I W: The situation in Taiwan Strait is very tense. and Taiwan is facing huge challenges.
nCNN, 2022-8-8: Taiwan's foreign minister says : "I worry that China may really launch a war against Taiwan," But the mood in Taiwan remained calm, with life carrying on as usual with packed restaurants and crowded public transport.   Independent (2022-8-16) reports Taiwan's poll: 45 % said that they were not afraid at all and 33 % said they were not very afraid

NBC, 2022-8-10:   nbcnews.com/news/world/is-taiwan-worried-china-threat-invasion-pelosi-visit-rcna41964  
A:
many residents say they are used to intimidation by Beijing ..." I don't think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai" ;
Experts:
 many residents in Ukraine reacted with disbelief to Russia's long-signaled invasion...whether Taiwan is being too complacent.?   people in Taiwan need to take this more seriously, they don't fully appreciate the circumstance they're in,”...
New York Times, 2022-8-9:  many watching from outside Taiwan seemed to expect Taiwanese to be “hysterically” stockpiling food and crafting evacuation plans ... a Taiwanese girl says: "Taiwanese people appearing calm in the face of rising tension is not due to ignorance or naïveté, but because this is accepted — even internalized — as a part of being Taiwanese”.

United Daily (Taiwan ) , 2022-8-11:  A poll showed that about 60% of the respondents were not worried about further military conflict between mainland  China and  Taiwan, which surprised foreign media,  Some posts on the net reflect what Taiwanese people's thought, "because China PLA won't attack us", " we are used to it" ," we have been intimidated two or three times per year" ... It appears too many intimidations made our people NUMB !

 

 

 

TIME, 2021-11-3: The U.S. Risks Catastrophe if It Doesn't Clarify Its Taiwan Strategy  Brookings, 2021-11-1: the asymmetric approach has been stretched beyond recognition in recent years by a recalcitrant MND ◆ Hill, 2021-11-1: Now there is real danger that, encouraged by Biden’s recent shift toward a more conciliatory approach  toward China, Xi will move against Taiwan WSJ, FoxNews, 2021-10-25: the island's military is riven with internal problems...Among the most pressing concerns are poor preparation and low morale among the roughly 80,000 Taiwanese who are conscripted each year and the nearly 2.2 million reservists.   NY Times, 2021-10-22: American presidents have spent decades trying to sidestep the question of how forcefully the United States would come to the aid of Taiwan if China invaded it or, more likely, tried to slowly strangle the island in an effort to force it back under the control of the mainland New York Times, 2021-10-15: Taiwan has a spotty record when it comes to fire safety... raise questions about whether the self-governing island,... had overlooked basic safety concerns in the rush to develop   NY Times, 2021-10-9 : "starting a fire" : US and China enter dangerous territory over Taiwan... with potential to ignite military conflagration and reshape the regional order     full text

 

 Pelosi visiting Taiwan       CNN,2022-7-29: potentially triggering the worst cross-strait crisis in decades

 
NY Times, 2022-7-28 Nancy Pelosi's Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous! The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait  nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html 
 Global Times (China), 2022-7-28  China's defense ministry issues fresh, rare warning: The US should not underestimate the crisis and possible disastrous results it will bring to the Taiwan Straits if Pelosi ultimately makes the trip... if the US does not pull back but keeps challenging the guardrail, the price will be beyond US capabilities to pay"...  The rare expressions "yanzhen yidai" (嚴陣以待),  PLA "will not sit idly by" (不會坐視) were used (in Korea war and Vietnam war).  -  China will not sit idly by if US troops crossed the 38th parallel. globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271693.shtml
Global Times, 2022-7-28 Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this," Xi said  via telephone,...  it is certain that if Pelosi insists on her provocative plan of visiting Taiwan, she will face serious and unbearable consequences   globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271696.shtml
NBC News, 2022-7-29 GT former editor :  "If the US can't restrain her (Pelosi), let China restrain her & punish her","PLA Air Force will surely make her visit a disgrace to herself and to the US." nbcnews.com/politics/congress/pelosi-leading-delegation-asia-friday-taiwan-visit-still-undecided-rcna40535
 TIME, 2022-7-28  there's a good chance that Beijing could sanction Pelosi personally...time.com/6201447/joe-biden-xi-jinping-taiwan-china/
 NPR, 2022-7-28 President Biden looks to ease tensions with Xi over Taiwan
npr.org/2022/07/28/1114314905/biden-and-chinas-xi-discuss-tensions-over-taiwan
 Reuters (UK),  2022-7-29 "So far, there are few indications in Chinese official statements, nor online or domestic media, which would suggest that China is considering more serious military action at this time, although that could change"  news.yahoo.com/analysis-despite-xis-fire-call-003612894.html

 

BBC, 2021-10-6 :China-Taiwan military tensions 'worst in 40 years'  WSJ, 2021-10-7 :U.S. Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan for at Least a Year Financial Times (UK), 2021-10-7 : US special forces secretly training Taiwan’s military; rotations had been occurring for at least a decade... the disclosure could further raise tensions.   Guardian, 2021-10-5 :The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war. Reuters, 2021-10-5 : experts say the island could likely only hold out for a few days in the event of a Chinese attack unless the United States quickly came to its aid Politico, 2021-10-5 : while a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent...We should think of China’s approach to Taiwan not as a bifurcated decision between war and peace but instead a continuous pressure campaign that can take various lethal and non-lethal forms New York Times, 2021-10-3 : Beijing sent a record number of planes near the island, ...a display of strength that underscored Chinese demands for unification   Guardian, 2021-10-5 :The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war. Reuters, 2021-10-5 : experts say the island could likely only hold out for a few days in the event of a Chinese attack unless the United States quickly came to its aid   CNN, 2021-10-5 : latest PLA flights represent the largest concentration of Chinese military aircraft ever operating that far from their home bases Forbes, 2021-10-4 :Easton:“Deterrence could be failing already"  “That indicates something big is going on.”. Beijing might initiate an aerial battle in a deliberate way. The Hill, 2021-10-4 :Taiwan preparing for possible war with China  CNN, 2021-10-4 :professor in Switzerland: "As long as Taiwan doesn't take irreversible steps toward independence/greater autonomous presence on the international scene," combat is unlikely Financial Times (UK), 2021-9-16 :Taiwan is failing to reorient its military towards an asymmetric strategy, US defence experts are growing exasperated over the Taiwan military’s reluctance to decisively act on their instructions.  New York Times, 2021-9-13 : if China has any hope of winning a war across the Strait, its military would have to move fast, before the United States has time to respond... the Chinese economy would suffer more     full text

 

World's Best Hospitals 2023
by Newsweek
comparison among Asia's selected 12 countries

newsweek.com/rankings/worlds-best-hospitals-2023

Asia's rank

country

total number of top 250