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Taiwan reviews by international and local organizations:

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News:  ◆  TIME, 2023-9-28:  If China's military responds to a Lai (Ching-te) victory in January by challenging Taiwanese defenses much closer to the island's shores,...Beijing and Washington could find themselves managing a crisis neither side really wants but can't avoid ◆   Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,... the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc. ◆  The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute warns that the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and lethal set of capabilities than it does now.  China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained.   full text

◆  New York post, 2023-9-19: China would have to do a combined amphibious and airborne air assault operation, which is an incredibly complicated joint operation to be able to do ◆  Reuters, 2023-9-19: Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says ◆  New York Times, 2023-9-18:  China sends record number of military planes near Taiwan. China is also testing and eroding the island's vigilance, seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's military might.  Taiwan expert: The sorties appeared to signal “China's dissatisfaction with the recent developments in strengthening military and economic and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States” ◆  Financial Times, 2023-9-15:  opinion polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's assurances.  Taiwan opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments, Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more explicit backing from Washington.  ◆  Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-9-14:  Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy  given the inevitable global backlash.   The capital city can reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA forces, every Taiwan citizen should be a resistance member : Preparing for a Chinese occupation   ◆    Bloomberg,2023-9-12:  a separate report to lawmakers: Taiwan's Defense Ministry warned that China's ruling Communist Party may “push forward the process of solving the Taiwan issue” during President Xi Jinping’s third term, which runs to 2027.   ◆ Military, 2023-9-13: By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan   ◆ Associated Press, 2023-9-9: The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping territorial claims ◆  Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. ◆  CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations   full text

News:  ◆ Reuters, 2023-8-31:  The outcome of the closely watched January 2024 vote will set the tone for Taipei's tumultuous relationship with Beijing ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30:  Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure.   full text

◆ BBC, 2023-8-29 : Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.  Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.   full text

◆ Reuters, 2023-8-25: Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft entering Taiwan's "response" zone,  Taiwan could not judge whether China's drills had formally ended  (Reuters, 2023-8-26: Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone, which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.) ◆  Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25: analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. ◆ TIME, 2023-8-21 :  China stops importing Taiwan's mangoes after Beijing announced naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S., having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an interview with Bloomberg  ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-20:  The election of a third consecutive DPP administration would confirm that Beijing's attempts to bring Taiwan under its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing.  Although Lai is currently leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top contenders chose one to rally around ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-19:  In warning to Taiwan, China Announces joint air and sea drills, so far, China's response after Mr. Lai's visit appears more muted than it was in April, or last August, Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's favor by pushing more support to his party in presidential election ◆ Chicago Tribune, 2023-8-14: As tensions build between China and Taiwan, tensions continue to ratchet up between Beijing and Washington, with both sides wanting to appear tough to deter the other from taking military action. The result, however, is making war more likely, not less. The United States must do something to lower tensions to maintain the peace while also retaining the ability to defend our interests   full text

◆  Bloomberg, 2023-8-14:  Taiwan's Election Is All About War...  it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems.   A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over"   full text

◆  European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8:  the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military. ◆  New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8:  the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts  — is under a shadow.  This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct  ◆ JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report  about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression." ◆   New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will  not  not  invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"  ◆  The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: A report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems".    full text

◆  Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis. ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen.   ◆  Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year."  , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper     full text

◆ BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-26:  Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-24:  so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself.  Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. ◆ VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.  But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan'  ◆  National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen:  If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.  ◆  Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine  ◆  National Interest, 2023-7-15:  With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...  it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation  ◆   CNN, 2023-7-14:  it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island. The longer the delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too slim to achieve success if its forces move too late  ◆  Reuters, 2023-7-14:  US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan  in the coming years.  Milley said the United States was looking at whether it needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the Asia Pacific.  ◆   Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  "Our gender culture still hasn't caught up with the laws", said a DPP legislator , "Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming." ◆  West Point, Modern War Institute, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war... systems (a range of cyber fires, electromagnetic attack, and long-range precision missile systems...) are the primary means to achieve decisive advantage.   full text

◆  CNN, 2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General  summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow. ◆  Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  ◆ The Guardian, 2023-7-9: while the war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000) of 2 million reservists are thought to be combat-ready...  the drills lack urban warfare or modern weaponry instruction. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.  The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.  While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield". ◆  Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,... ◆  le Monde, 2023-7-5:  many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ RAND, Jun. 2023: Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days  — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China... would allow it to eventually subjugate the island. ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29:   if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed. ◆  CSIS.org, 2023-6-29:  Fundamentally, both the August and April exercises were suggestive of an “encirclement” of Taiwan using PLA Navy forces;  the April exercises were no less significant than those in August. ◆ AFP, Moscow Times, 2023-6-28:Taiwan sighted two Russian frigates sailing off its eastern coast. The presence of Russian warships is unusual,  Interfax reported the warships were performing tasks as part of a long-range sea crossing, which included "a simulated naval battle   full text

News:  ◆   TIME, 2023-6-26:  Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their operations away from China ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's cooperation against  Lai Ching-te) ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  56% Americans would support an increase in U.S. military presence as a way to discourage China from invading Taiwan and 30% indicated they would oppose such a move, according to the results of a Reagan Institute poll ◆ Reuters, 2023-6-24: Taiwan says Chinese air force approached close to island's coast ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-6-23: The United States needs to bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait without provoking China.  A heavy-handed U.S. approach could come with a heavy cost. Avoiding conflict will take great diplomatic nuance.   ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21:  China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. G7 responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support economic countermeasures against China and opt for a de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion would likely be divided  ◆  Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:  If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific  ◆  Economist, 2023-6-19:  Chinese officials pay much attention to online opinion. When it comes to a war with Taiwan, many Chinese urge caution, even some ardent nationalists; according to a recent paper, even if China were to decide to go to war by next January, only 55% said that would be acceptable ◆  FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ; Over the last year, the U.S. and China saw more than $700 billion in trade which according to Blinken constituted the highest level between the two countries on record. He reiterated  that it would be "disastrous" for the U.S. to decouple and stop all trade and investment with China. ◆  Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction.  For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ...  ◆   CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait   full text

◆  National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States ◆  L.A. Times, 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's relationship with China is one of the most contentious and defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status quo, politicians are deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own parties.

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News: ◆ USNI, 2023-6-7:  Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are "rumors about slow production" ... Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - maintaining a traditional naval force that could leave it open to invasion or pursuing an asymmetric one ◆ Sydney Morning Herald, 2023-6-7: Anthony Albanese said Australia's goal was “not to prepare for war but to prevent it”. The more willing we are to support Taiwan's security, the less likely it is we would ever need to fight for Taiwan ◆  CNN, 2023-6-2:  the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report:  there is no evidence the war in Ukraine has “altered Chinese thinking on the timescale or methodology” for a possible attack on Taiwan. ◆   Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown ◆  Washington Post, 2023-5-31:  Why are tensions so high?  China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979.  ◆ IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way    full text

◆ The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. ◆ Reuters, 2023-5-27:  Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says ◆  Washington Post, 2023-5-29:  Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places ◆  The Guardian, 2023-5-24:  Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai  has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war;  The strategy seems to be working. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17  :  faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.  ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-17:  Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence ◆  New York Times, 2023-5-11:  Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-5-9: Threatening to destroy TSMC is unnecessary and would also help China sow distrust among Taiwanese people toward the US and undermine Taiwan's will to resist Chinese aggression...China's determination to achieve reunification would be just as strong if Taiwan were a poor, agrarian society ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11:  the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.  —   deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. ◆ DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11:  Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house”  full text

◆ Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism ◆ Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade ◆ Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said  ◆ le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  ◆ The Nation, 2023-4-26:  A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it. ◆   AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering.  Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan. ◆   CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military  ◆  New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle ◆ Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States ◆  Brookings, 2023-4-15:  Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens  ◆  New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. ◆ The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆  TIME, 2023-4-12:  Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades ◆ New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island. ◆ BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid  ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China  ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-5:  Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China  ◆  Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The  DPP has criticised KMT's  "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict ◆ Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners ◆  AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington ◆  Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23:  to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”◆  Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.  The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter  ◆  full text

◆ Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive. ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-13:  In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ U.S. Naval War College  - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system,  the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) ◆ The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them.  Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation.◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people    ◆  full text

 ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning ◆ Foreign Policy in focus, 2023-3-2:  if Beijing did decide to invade Taiwan after 2026, TSMC’s intellectual capital, in the form of its top computer scientists, would undoubtedly be on outbound flights for Phoenix, leaving little more than a few concrete shells and some sabotaged equipment behind...significant chip factory projects being put in place ... Add it all up and the U.S. is already about halfway to the “minimum of three years and a $350 billion investment… to replace the Taiwanese [chip] foundries  ◆  USNI, 2023-3-2:  Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.  ◆ Reuters, 2023-2-28: The threat of China invading Taiwan has moved to the centre of global money managers' risk radars and is factoring in their investment decisions,"China wouldn't have to invade Taiwan or actually get hot to just cause a stir in that part of the market"   ◆  Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ...  ◆  full text