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◆ Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing |
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NewsWeek, 2023-9-29 | A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in. Policy experts in the U.S. have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so。 |
CNN, 2023-9-28 | While the Taiwan Strait might be too shallow for submarines to operate in, the vessels could be most useful when deployed to target Chinese warships in the Bashi channel – which separates Taiwan from the Philippines – and the waters between Taiwan and Japan’s westernmost islands. China has planned for a major naval engagement with the US outside the first island chain, around the Philippine Sea”. |
BBC, 2023-9-28 | National University of Singapore Drew Thompson: the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China...The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role... |
Defense News, 2023-9-29 | Reuters has also reported that that Taiwan had recruited engineers and retired submariners from the U.S., U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, Spain and Canada to work on the program |
Forbes, 2023-9-28 | In CSIS's war games, Chinese escorts, aircraft and submarines usually sank around a fifth of the deployed subs every three or four days throughout the weekslong war. In the end, perhaps a dozen or more subs lay wrecked at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, tombs for thousands of submariners. |
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30 | Some see the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program as a poor use of scarce defense resources on a prestige project ; The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects. |
News: ◆ TIME, 2023-9-28: If China's military responds to a Lai (Ching-te) victory in January by challenging Taiwanese defenses much closer to the island's shores,...Beijing and Washington could find themselves managing a crisis neither side really wants but can't avoid ◆ Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,... the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc. ◆ The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute warns that the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and lethal set of capabilities than it does now. China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained. full text
◆ New York post, 2023-9-19: China would have to do a combined amphibious and airborne air assault operation, which is an incredibly complicated joint operation to be able to do ◆ Reuters, 2023-9-19: Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says ◆ New York Times, 2023-9-18: China sends record number of military planes near Taiwan. China is also testing and eroding the island's vigilance, seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's military might. Taiwan expert: The sorties appeared to signal “China's dissatisfaction with the recent developments in strengthening military and economic and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States” ◆ Financial Times, 2023-9-15: opinion polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's assurances. Taiwan opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments, Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more explicit backing from Washington. ◆ Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-9-14: Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy given the inevitable global backlash. The capital city can reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA forces, every Taiwan citizen should be a resistance member : Preparing for a Chinese occupation ◆ Bloomberg,2023-9-12: a separate report to lawmakers: Taiwan's Defense Ministry warned that China's ruling Communist Party may “push forward the process of solving the Taiwan issue” during President Xi Jinping’s third term, which runs to 2027. ◆ Military, 2023-9-13: By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan ◆ Associated Press, 2023-9-9: The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping territorial claims ◆ Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China. Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. ◆ CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations full text
China's economic crisis news.yahoo.com/china-economic-woes-could-raise-220300203.html Michael Martina businessinsider.com/joe-biden-china-unlikely-invade-taiwan-economy-property-crisis-g20-2023-9 Huileng Tan |
◆ Reuters, 2023-9-12 : the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China says China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan |
◆ Washington Examiner, Insider, 2023-9-11: Biden says China is unlikely to invade Taiwan now because Beijing just too busy with its own economic crisis |
News: ◆ Reuters, 2023-8-31: The outcome of the closely watched January 2024 vote will set the tone for Taipei's tumultuous relationship with Beijing ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30: Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure. full text
◆ Taiwanese Divided on US Military Sales / VOA News , 2023-9-6 |
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66.5% of the respondents support U.S.
military sales to Taiwan ♦ 43.1% of respondents think U.S. military sales to Taiwan will further increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Whereas 37.8% think U.S. military sales can help maintain peace between China and Taiwan ♦ Taiwan rarely has the autonomy to decide what types of weapons it wants to purchase from the U.S. Rather, the deliverables often seem to have been “decided” for Taiwan ♦ there are often deeper political meanings behind U.S. military sales to Taiwan. These military sales should be conducted more discreetly, rather than publicly announcing these programs ♦ the U.S. provides more offensive weapons for Taiwan through military sales, they believe it increases the risks of prompting a potential Chinese military attack on Taiwan. voanews.com/a/taiwanese-divided-on-us-military-sales-amid-growing-chinese-threats/7256298.htm |
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◆ BBC, 2023-8-29 : Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate. Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path. full text
Using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program to transfer military aid to Taiwan will likely infuriate China. |
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USA | China |
♣ CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations
♣ Bloomberg
(2023-8-31): The Foreign Military Financing mechanism covers
international organizations as well as nations |
♣ The Hill (2023-9-1): China says it 'deplores' US military transfer to Taiwan
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◆ Reuters, 2023-8-25: Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft entering Taiwan's "response" zone, Taiwan could not judge whether China's drills had formally ended (Reuters, 2023-8-26: Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone, which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.) ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23: full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25: analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. ◆ TIME, 2023-8-21 : China stops importing Taiwan's mangoes after Beijing announced naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S., having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an interview with Bloomberg ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-20: The election of a third consecutive DPP administration would confirm that Beijing's attempts to bring Taiwan under its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing. Although Lai is currently leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top contenders chose one to rally around ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-19: In warning to Taiwan, China Announces joint air and sea drills, so far, China's response after Mr. Lai's visit appears more muted than it was in April, or last August, Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's favor by pushing more support to his party in presidential election ◆ Chicago Tribune, 2023-8-14: As tensions build between China and Taiwan, tensions continue to ratchet up between Beijing and Washington, with both sides wanting to appear tough to deter the other from taking military action. The result, however, is making war more likely, not less. The United States must do something to lower tensions to maintain the peace while also retaining the ability to defend our interests full text
US Congress
CRS Report, 2023-8-24 -
Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
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♣
Civil military relations are
strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s
energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems
are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is
insufficient, ... Taiwan's
military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.
It is not clear what costs—in terms of
economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's
people would be willing or able to bear
... ♣ persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack. If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond ♣ many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack. observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan. |
◆ Bloomberg, 2023-8-14: Taiwan's Election Is All About War... it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems. A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over" full text
◆ Lai Ching-te 'stopover' |
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New York Times (2023-8-14 news brief, 2023-8-12) | A Taiwanese presidential contender walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/asia/taiwan-us-china-lai-ching-te.html |
NPR (2023-8-12) | Taiwan's Vice President is stopping by the U.S. this week, under China's watchful eye,U.S officials pointedly refer to Lai's trip as a transit, meaning a stop for logistical, rather than political, purposes. For Lai, this trip is especially to break out of some of the suspicions the U.S. may have about him and prove he can engage with the U.S.。 |
DW (2023-8-12) | Beijing labeled Lai — a separatist and a "troublemaker." |
BBC ( 2023-8-14) | China accused Washington of engaging Taiwan in political activities under the guise of a stopover. Mr Lai's visit comes at a low point in US-China relations, with Taiwan emerging as the biggest flashpoint. Mr Lai has previously called himself - to Beijing's displeasure - a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence". bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66495368?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA) Derek Cai |
France 24 ( 2023-8-14) | China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington |
CNN (2023-8-13) | China calls him a “troublemaker through and through.”. China deplores and strongly condemns the US decision to arrange the so-called ‘stopover'. |
AFP (2023-8-13) |
China on Sunday vowed "resolute
and forceful measures" over a weekend trip by Taiwan Vice President
William Lai to the United States Lai has been far more outspoken about independence than Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, to whom Beijing is already hostile as she refuses to accept its view that Taiwan is a part of China. news.yahoo.com/china-vows-forceful-response-over-035750831.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
Wall Street Journal (2023-8-12) | China's leaders have more to think about as they weigh a response. While it serves Beijing's interests to have better relations with Washington at this moment,” that doesn't mean the Chinese leadership would shy from taking strong action on Taiwan, if they deem it necessary msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-visit-by-taiwan-vice-president-puts-china-in-a-bind/ar-AA1fbCxI Chun Han Wong, Joyu Wang, Charles Hutzler |
VOA (2023-8-11) | experts think Beijing will launch a military response to Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., but the scale will depend on how "official-looking" his trip is. "This includes who he meets with, what he says, and how public those meetings are" ... any reaction deemed too provocative could help increase Lai's chance of winning the election. However, she added that Beijing also worries about sending the wrong signal if its responses are deemed too weak. voanews.com/a/analysts-us-taipei-aim-to-keep-taiwan-vp-transit-stops-low-key-/7220905.html |
◆ European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8: the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts — is under a shadow. This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct ◆ JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression." ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will not not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?" ◆ The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: A report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems". full text
Pew
Research, 2023-8-11: 28-48, Taiwan seen more favorably than not across
24 countries |
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unfavorable | favorable | |
US | 30 | 65 |
UK | 25 | 60 |
Nederland | 35 | 52 |
Germany | 28 | 50 |
France | 26 | 49 |
Japan | 14 | 82 |
S. Korea | 19 | 77 |
Australia | 27 | 71 |
India | 43 | 37 |
Greece 30-28, Hungary 25-25, Spain 37-38, S Africa 40-23, Brazil 34-29, 24-country median 28-48 |
◆ Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen. ◆ Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year." , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper full text
#MeToo in Taiwan |
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◆ New York Times, 2023-7-27 | our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html |
◆ Reuters, 2023-7-28 | Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence. victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships. .reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/ Sarah Wu |
◆ The coming China war over Taiwan - Fox News, 2023-7-28 |
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The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place.
♦ a critical question – is Taiwan
committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is
no. |
◆ What would be the signs that a PLA invasion is in the planning ? |
♦
Economist, 2023-7-27: China would want to secure adequate
supplies of commodities, namely energy ( coal, gas, oil - one of the
best indicators ), food and metals (unusual metal-buying patterns,
export controls on rare-earth metals ) and to
reduce the country's dependence on the dollar.
China might
move its foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars and euros and into
assets such as gold,
and probably tighten its capital controls,
they also might freeze all foreign funds in China,
etc
economist.com/china/2023/07/27/could-economic-indicators-signal-chinas-intent-to-go-to-war ♦ National Interest , 2022-11-21: there would be reliable indications, including surging production of various missiles, rockets, and key munitions, China would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions and would start preparing the population psychologically for the cost of the war.... They might take a strategic advantage, such as by catching the rest of the world off-guard, capitalizing on the chaos and distraction in other countries. nationalinterest.org/feature/china’s-new-politburo-has-taiwan-its-crosshairs-205909 ♦ Japan Times, 2022-10-18: some of indications could be a mix of both short- and long-term economic steps to try and insulate the Chinese economy from external vulnerabilities and to minimize China's dependency on the world while maximizing the world's dependency on China. Short-term economic indicators are more likely to signal Beijing’s intent. These could include a number of abrupt steps such as freezing foreign financial assets within China, quickly repatriating Chinese assets held abroad, a surge in stockpiling emergency supplies such as medicine or key technology inputs and a suspension of key exports such as critical minerals, refined petroleum products or food. japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/18/asia-pacific/signs-china-invasion-taiwan/ |
◆ BBC, 2023-7-27: many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-26: Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-24: so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself. Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. ◆ VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15: Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia. But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan' ◆ National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen: If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan. ◆ Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17: the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine ◆ National Interest, 2023-7-15: With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later... it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation ◆ CNN, 2023-7-14: it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island. The longer the delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too slim to achieve success if its forces move too late ◆ Reuters, 2023-7-14: US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan in the coming years. Milley said the United States was looking at whether it needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the Asia Pacific. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws. "Our gender culture still hasn't caught up with the laws", said a DPP legislator , "Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming." ◆ West Point, Modern War Institute, 2023-7-11: <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan> implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war... systems (a range of cyber fires, electromagnetic attack, and long-range precision missile systems...) are the primary means to achieve decisive advantage. full text
◆ CNN, 2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow. ◆ Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge ◆ The Guardian, 2023-7-9: while the war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000) of 2 million reservists are thought to be combat-ready... the drills lack urban warfare or modern weaponry instruction. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel. The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely. While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield". ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,... ◆ le Monde, 2023-7-5: many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ RAND, Jun. 2023: Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China... would allow it to eventually subjugate the island. ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29: if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed. ◆ CSIS.org, 2023-6-29: Fundamentally, both the August and April exercises were suggestive of an “encirclement” of Taiwan using PLA Navy forces; the April exercises were no less significant than those in August. ◆ AFP, Moscow Times, 2023-6-28:Taiwan sighted two Russian frigates sailing off its eastern coast. The presence of Russian warships is unusual, Interfax reported the warships were performing tasks as part of a long-range sea crossing, which included "a simulated naval battle full text
News: ◆ TIME, 2023-6-26: Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their operations away from China ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-26: Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's cooperation against Lai Ching-te) ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-26: 56% Americans would support an increase in U.S. military presence as a way to discourage China from invading Taiwan and 30% indicated they would oppose such a move, according to the results of a Reagan Institute poll ◆ Reuters, 2023-6-24: Taiwan says Chinese air force approached close to island's coast ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-6-23: The United States needs to bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait without provoking China. A heavy-handed U.S. approach could come with a heavy cost. Avoiding conflict will take great diplomatic nuance. ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21: China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. G7 responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support economic countermeasures against China and opt for a de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion would likely be divided ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023: If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific ◆ Economist, 2023-6-19: Chinese officials pay much attention to online opinion. When it comes to a war with Taiwan, many Chinese urge caution, even some ardent nationalists; according to a recent paper, even if China were to decide to go to war by next January, only 55% said that would be acceptable ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ; Over the last year, the U.S. and China saw more than $700 billion in trade which according to Blinken constituted the highest level between the two countries on record. He reiterated that it would be "disastrous" for the U.S. to decouple and stop all trade and investment with China. ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction. For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ... ◆ CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait full text
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-21: Biden calls Xi a dictator, jeopardizing US-China thaw |
◆
USA Today,
2023-6-21: China threatens to
undermine his administration's efforts to "thaw" intensifying relations.
◆ Reuters, 2023-6-21: expert at Fudan University: it would not erase what Blinken had achieved on his China visit. |
◆
National
Interest, 2023-6-15:
If China launches an invasion
without first destroying America's military assets in
the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches
a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will
experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States
◆
L.A.
Times,
2023-6-13:
Taiwan's
relationship with China is one of the most contentious and
defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the
January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status
quo, politicians are
deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own
parties.
National Interest, 2023-6-20
nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
|
||||
overall | DPP | KMT | TPP | |
not at all confident | 26.61% | 3.23% | 55.63% | 32.12% |
not very confident | 37.92 | 23.12 | 29.38 | 48.91 |
fairly | 27.96 | 48.92 | 12.50 | 16.79 |
very confident | 7.51 | 24.73 | 2.50 | 2.19 |
#MeToo in Taiwan |
|
◆ CNN, 2023-6-10 | The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment. Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else. Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles, will it be the real #MeToo moment. edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html |
◆ The Guardian, 2023-6-8 | The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed. theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk |
◆ Washington Post, 2023-6-7 | The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang. people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment. msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin |
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7 | Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party. wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang Wenxin Fan |
◆ ABC Australia, 2023-6-24 |
Young
women, since they were children, they are already taught to protect
themselves, or try to tolerate this kind of inconvenience
(accept harassment). Sexual harassment
and sexual assault are prevalent in all kinds of power relationships.
The impact of the
Netflix
show《
Wave Makers
(造浪者)》has
been huge, and it resonated with young Taiwanese women, s |
◆ SCMP, 2023-6-11 | NTU prof. Tso Chen-dong: the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights. DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights. scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3223609/wave-metoo-cases-threatens-engulf-taiwans-ruling-democratic-progressive-party Lawance Chung |
economist /
The world's most liveable cities in 2023
|
|
score |
cities in Asia |
90+ | Melbourne, Sydney, Aucland, Adelaide, Osaka(Japan), Perth, Tokyo(Japan), Brisbane, Wellington, Singapore |
80-90 | Seoul(Korea), Hong Kong(Chn), Busan(Korea), Taipei (Taiwan), Kaohsiung, Taichung |
60-80 | Noumea, Nantong, SuZhou, Beijing, ShenYang, Shanghai, etc |
top 5 cities:
Vienna 98.4, Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney,
Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96 Score out of 100* five categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education and infrastructure. |
pic. : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-8, 2023-6-4, 2023-5-23, 5-21; No.3 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-5-2, 2023-3-26
No.2 "review Taiwan" on US Google, 2023-1-1,2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-20, 2022-11-15, 2022-11-6 ; No.1 "review Taiwan" on US Google, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-25, 2021-9-29, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-15, 2021-8-5, 2021-7-24, 2021-7-9, 2021-7-4, 2021-6-22, 2021-6-15, 2021-5-31, 2021-5-1, 2020-12-20 ; No.2 at 2022-8-12, 2022-7-21, 2022-5-25, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-12, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-25, 2021-9-19; No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2022-5-25; "Taiwan reviews" among top ranks on US Google, 2022-08-23, 2022-08-24; No.3"review Taiwan" on Google, 2022-9-30, 2022-9-23; No.4 "Taiwan reviews" on Google, 2023-4-30
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-10, 2023-7-8 pic. : No.1 "review Taiwan" on Swisscows of Switzerland, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-22
|
News: ◆ USNI, 2023-6-7: Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are "rumors about slow production" ... Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - maintaining a traditional naval force that could leave it open to invasion or pursuing an asymmetric one ◆ Sydney Morning Herald, 2023-6-7: Anthony Albanese said Australia's goal was “not to prepare for war but to prevent it”. The more willing we are to support Taiwan's security, the less likely it is we would ever need to fight for Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2023-6-2: the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report: there is no evidence the war in Ukraine has “altered Chinese thinking on the timescale or methodology” for a possible attack on Taiwan. ◆ Economist, 2023-5-31: Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-31: Why are tensions so high? China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979. ◆ IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way full text
Elbridge Colby, a leading voice for a new “pivot to Asia.” | John Walters, Hudson Institute CEO |
He wants to see the U.S. concentrate efforts on deterring war in the Pacific, even if that means abandoning European interests.。 the U.S. simply does not have the capability for building the alliance system Walters envisions or supplying it with the requisite arms and ammunition to fight wars with two great powers at once; It will take well into the 2030s before we're in much better shape; before Chinese leader Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan, the U.S. should put in place immediate measures to attack the key segments of that CCP economic and military power。 | “Ukraine Is No Distraction From Asia.”; the US can fend off Russian and Chinese revanchism simultaneously; aggression must be met by strong American alliances with key countries, including both Taiwan and Ukraine; the kinds of weapons needed in Ukraine and Taiwan are different enough that supplying one will not substantially affect the other; most Republicans on Capitol Hill remain strong supporters of Ukraine. Ukraine will help generate (US) domestic resolve to fight for Taiwan. |
washingtonexaminer.com/news/inside-right-debate-ukraine-taiwan 2023-6-1 |
◆ The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. ◆ Reuters, 2023-5-27: Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-29: Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-24: Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war; The strategy seems to be working. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17 : faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China. ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-17: Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-11: Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-5-9: Threatening to destroy TSMC is unnecessary and would also help China sow distrust among Taiwanese people toward the US and undermine Taiwan's will to resist Chinese aggression...China's determination to achieve reunification would be just as strong if Taiwan were a poor, agrarian society ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11: the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent. — deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. ◆ DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11: Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house” full text
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◆ Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10: Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism ◆ Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade ◆ Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said ◆ le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is ◆ The Nation, 2023-4-26: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it. ◆ AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering. Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan. ◆ CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle ◆ Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-15: Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. ◆ The Guardian, 2023-4-14: German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆ TIME, 2023-4-12: Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades ◆ New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island. ◆ BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2023-4-6: Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-5: Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China ◆ Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The DPP has criticised KMT's "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict ◆ Taiwan is losing its friends. Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners ◆ AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington ◆ Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23: to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter ◆ full text
Taiwan's President is expected to meet Speaker McCarthy, Beijing will decide how strongly it wants to respond |
|
New York Times, 2023-3-29 | President Tsai Ing-wen risks a show of force from Beijing。 Beijing just lured Honduras to abandon diplomatic ties with Taipei in what many saw as pre-emptive punishment for her trip. nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/asia/taiwan-president-us-china.html |
Bloomberg, 2023-3-29 | Tsai is unlikely to use this moment to “push boundaries" , partly to avoid "accusations of being provocative by Taiwanese voters.". Any Tsai meeting with McCarthy "puts the ball in Beijing's court" news.yahoo.com/china-warns-taiwan-leader-mccarthy-031352507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
Washington Post, 2023-3-29 | When Honduras switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last week, it put the diplomatic future of Taiwan in a more precarious position washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/honduras-taiwan-china-allies-relations/ |
Newsweek, 2023-3-31 | "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing,""At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution." msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-two-taiwan-trips-mean-for-fate-of-most-dangerous-us-china-issue/ar-AA19komh Tom O'Connor |
Bloomberg, 2023-3-31 | The expected California meeting with McCarthy was considered a concession: At the request of the Taiwanese government, McCarthy decided to put off a potential trip to Taiwan until after presidential elections next year and instead host Taiwan’s leader on US soil. msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-tries-to-keep-china-calm-while-taiwans-tsai-visits-the-us/ar-AA19il7y Jenny Leonard and Cindy Wang |
L.A. Times, 2023-3-31 | On a sensitive U.S. visit, Taiwan's leader stresses defense and democracy msn.com/en-us/news/world/on-a-sensitive-u-s-visit-taiwan-s-leader-stresses-defense-and-democracy/ar-AA19j0p0 ELLEN KNICKMEYER, MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN and LISA MASCARO |
The Guardian, 2023-3-28 | (ex president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington. Taiwan caught between superpowers as rival leaders visit China and US theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/taiwan-leaders-visit-china-us-ma-ying-jeou-tsai-ing-wenTaipei |
◆ Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive. ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-13: In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ U.S. Naval War College - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system, the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) ◆ The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them. Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation.◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people ◆ full text
Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns |
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AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/ | ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America |
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 | The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH |
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 | Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h |
◆ Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning ◆ Foreign Policy in focus, 2023-3-2: if Beijing did decide to invade Taiwan after 2026, TSMC’s intellectual capital, in the form of its top computer scientists, would undoubtedly be on outbound flights for Phoenix, leaving little more than a few concrete shells and some sabotaged equipment behind...significant chip factory projects being put in place ... Add it all up and the U.S. is already about halfway to the “minimum of three years and a $350 billion investment… to replace the Taiwanese [chip] foundries ◆ USNI, 2023-3-2: Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027. ◆ Reuters, 2023-2-28: The threat of China invading Taiwan has moved to the centre of global money managers' risk radars and is factoring in their investment decisions,"China wouldn't have to invade Taiwan or actually get hot to just cause a stir in that part of the market" ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ... ◆ full text
Pew Research
org., 2023-3-2 |
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a conflict between China and Taiwan | China invade Taiwan | Taiwan declared Independence, China invaded | |
support China | 8% | 7 | 10 |
support Taiwan | 45% | 49 | 40 |
remain neutral | 47% | 44 | 50 |
when the scenario involves Taiwan declaring
independence. Under this hypothetical, 46% of Democratic respondents say
the U.S. should support Taiwan, compared with 28% of Republicans. pewresearch.org/decoded/2023/03/02/testing-survey-questions-about-a-hypothetical-military-conflict-between-china-and-taiwan/ |
pic.
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