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◆
Daily Express, 2024-3-13:
Taiwan war with China given latest seal of approval by US with
new deadly weapon (the Link 16 comm.
system ) in a move set to escalate tensions between
Taiwan and
China
delivery.
Link 16 acts as the brain and nervous
system of Taiwan's military apparatus,
places control firmly in US hands.
◆
Daily Express,
2024-3-8:
China - with its military build-up,
hoarding of food, and military recruitment drives - is preparing for something
big;
A recent documentary aired in Mainland
China also added to expectations that a move on Taiwan is imminent.
Recent purges of top military brass might
be an attempt by CCP leader Xi Jinping to eliminate all opposition to invading
or blockading Taiwan in the near future.
Anyone who
thinks China would be deterred because of the economic impact of war ought to
remember Zero Covid and how political considerations outweighed economic
factors.
◆
United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5)
:
After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure.
China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional
conflict.
◆
EurAsian Times,
2024-3-5:
Admiral
Samuel Paparo, leading the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China
could soon use military drills to cover up an invasion of Taiwan. Thus, the
writing is on the wall.
◆
full text
|
Taiwan classifies the military move against intrusion as "First strike" |
|
| ◆ EurAsian Times, 2024-3-10:Taiwan has authorized its commanders to use lethal military force on intruding Chinese warplanes that cross its aerial and maritime territorial borders. Classifying the military move as a “first strike,” ...Ministry of National Defense says “that if enemy aircraft or vessels intruded into Taiwan’s airspace or waters, then commanders are authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security when all other non-peaceful means fail.” eurasiantimes.com/china-ill-prepared-to-annex-taiwan-top-pla-general/ | ◆ United Daily (Taiwan), 2024-3-10: a group of China's fishing boats entered Taiwan's internal waters (6 nautical miles) and destroyed our fishing-net, but Taiwan was inactive about it. udn.com/news/story/11091/7821748?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2 |
◆ The Hill, 2024-3-5: In China's legislature, Premier Li's report had stronger language on Taiwan - Dropping the word “peace” combined with the phrase “resolutely opposing Taiwan independence,” is what signals a stronger stance ◆ Council on Foreign relations, 2024-2-27: Taiwanese society has grown increasingly skeptical of the United States, which has been enhancing its political relationship with Taiwan but without enhancing its international standing or offering it tangible economic benefits. the increased number of official visits to Taiwan has been perceived as largely symbolic ◆ Financial Times, 2024-2-23: Previous statements only pledged to ‘resolutely oppose’ Taiwan independence, but now China's Communist party toughens Taiwan rhetoric with call to ‘fight’ independence ◆ VOA, 2024-2-23: recent Chinese coast guard activities actions will likely become a "new normal" near Taiwan’s outlying islands. We can expect China to conduct similar operations near Kinmen and Matsu Islands ◆ Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry. So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. ◆ CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II. ◆ full text
◆
Financial Times, 2024-2-19:
China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist
boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen
just off the Chinese coast.
Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and
undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade
|
◆ the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition |
|||||
| Taiwan | China | Japan | Korea | Singapore | |
| Comprehensive Power | No.14 15.2 | 2nd | 3rd | 7th | 8th |
| Economic capability | 8th -1.2 13.0 | 2nd 87.0 | 3rd | 5th | 6th |
| Military Capability | 11th +2.1 21.7 | 2nd 68.1 | 6th 27.4 | 5th | 9th |
| Resilience | 18th -5.9 24.7 | 3rd 70.4 | 11th | 10th | 14th |
| Future Resources | 12th 6.5 | 2nd 72.9 | 5th | 7th | 11th |
| Diplomatic Influence | 22th 19.4 | 1st 91.5 | 3rd | 6th | 10th |
| Economic Relationships | 12th 11.1 | 1st 98.3 | 3rd | 5th | 4th |
| Cultural Influence | 13th 12.6 | 2nd 47.4 | 3rd | 7th | 9th |
| Defense Networks | 16th 11.8 | 7th 23.7 | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/ | |||||
◆
DW, 2024-2-16:
the blockade would be a very special
threat for Taiwan... neither the conventional capability, nor asymmetric
capability, can be effective to deter or defend for this operation
◆
CSIS.org , 2024-2-13:
any conflict in the Taiwan
Strait would also quickly spread across the globe and into cyberspace and space.
There would also be real risk of a nuclear exchange.
◆
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
2024-2-9:
Short of clearly committing to restraint
and offering some sort of arrangement that could make people on Taiwan better
off overall, CCP leaders are left only with the option to escalate confrontation
through harsher means
◆
full text
|
Comparison -
|
|||||||||
| index | world ranks | China | Singapore | Japan | H K | Australia | S. Korea | Taiwan | |
| Nature | 1-100 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||
| US News | 1-100 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||
| QS | 1-25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 25-60 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 60-100 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| CWUR | 1-100 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Times | 1-70 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 70-100 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||
| Mar. 17, 2024 total | 59 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 25 | 11 | 1 | ||
|
☉ Nature / after No.100 -
Taiwan
(NTU
台灣大學) ranks 208, behind
Hong Kong (103. City U HK 108 Chinese U. HK
122. HKUST
207. HK Poly.),
Australia (no. 112, 113, 134, 148), Israel (no.
86, 140, 176, 196), Saudi Arabia (145. KAUST),
India
(149 India U.,
189. India Institute of
Science) etc
☉
QS /
Taiwan
(NTU ranks no. 69) is behind Malaysia (no. 65 U. Malaya) |
|||||||||
|
The tension between Taiwan and China reached a new
high |
|
| Associated Press, 2024-2-18 | The fishermen's deaths are unusual despite the level of Chinese activity in the waters near Kinmen, which is closer to China than it is to Taiwan's main island |
| TIME, 2024-2-15 | China: Taiwan's officials have long mistreated fishermen from the mainland and forcefully and dangerously seized mainland fishing boats, a pattern it claims led to the recent |
| Reuters, NBC News, 2024-2-18 | China has condemned Taiwan's actions and labeled the death incident "wicked". The deaths had caused “strong indignation” in China, and there is no such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted waters’. China will strengthen its law enforcement activities and carry out regular patrols around a small group of Taiwanese-controlled islands off the Chinese coast as tensions rise over the deaths of two Chinese nationals |
| Daily Express (UK), 2024-2-18 | China ramps up coast guard ships in Taiwan waters as tensions rise over fishermen deaths. Tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a new high. |
| DW (Germany), 2024-2-16 | Inevitable Taiwan tensions in 2024 |
| China Daily (China) , 2024-2-19 |
China: A callous act with disregard for human life. It has caused strong indignation across the mainland ; For many years, the mainland established reception facilities for Taiwan fishermen in numerous coastal areas, provided them assistance such as shelters and supplies, and rescued Taiwan fishing boats and fishermen,。 In contrast, the DPP Taiwan have, for some time, forcefully detained mainland fishing boats under various pretexts and treated mainland fishermen in a rude and dangerous manner, this was the key reason why the fatal incident occurred. The mainland reserves the right to take further measures, and Taiwan will bear all consequences. |
| Taipei Times (Taiwan), 2024-2-16 | Taiwan (MAC) : Coast guard's conduct appropriate - they were legally performing their duties and had not erred in any way. Chinese fishing vessels have been intruding into Taiwan's restricted or prohibited waters for a while to poach high-priced fish |
| GT (China) , 2024-2-26 | Taiwan even used the phrase "rescue explanation of the overturned mainland speedboat" at a press conference, making the accident sound like the mainland fishing boat had accidentally capsized and Taiwan's vessel was there to rescue, blatantly spreading false information. If the Taiwan authorities continue to disregard the mainland's sincerity, then they will bear the consequences and pay the cost. Calling off the "off-limit" or "restricted" waters in the Xiamen-Kinmen zones, realizing regular law enforcement patrols in the entire Xiamen-Kinmen waters, including boarding inspections of relevant ships globaltimes.cn/page/202402/1307706.shtml |
◆ Reuters, 2024-2-6: While Taiwan has installed anti-tank obstacles on some outlying islands facing China, the beaches around the capital remain apparently undefended. If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership◆ Reuters, 2024-1-31: American military logistics in the Pacific is one of the greatest U.S. vulnerabilities in any potential conflict over Taiwan. Our ability to deter conflict in the Western Pacific over the next five years is not close to where it needs to be ◆ The Hill, 2024-1-29: War with China would be an unmitigated strategic catastrophe ◆ full text
◆ Semafor, 2024-1-26: whether or not these investments (more than 1.6 million reserve personnel) would count for much in the case of a potential invasion by Beijing “remains to be seen,”...As Taiwan continues to adjust to shifting demographics – such as its aging population and declining male-to-female ratio – the current one-year conscription policy for men may need lengthening further. ◆ Semafor, 2024-1-24: according to Foreign Policy, Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party lacks many military commanders who advocate asymmetrical warfare and a “porcupine strategy:” deterring Beijing with a smaller stockpile of more effective weapons. Security officials within the party have historically called for reinforcing the island with big tanks, submarines, and fighter jets that “Washington thinks Taiwan doesn't need”◆ National Interest 2024-1-24: the possibility of Washington sacrificing Taiwan in a deal with China that would benefit the United States financially would rise significantly under another Trump administration. Taiwan's unfortunate fate is that it will always be vulnerable to a sellout by the United States. This danger may be increasing. ◆ The Hill, 2024-1-23: According to the CSIS survey, 68 percent of U.S. experts said a Taiwan Strait crisis was likely or very likely in 2024, compared to 58 percent of Taiwanese experts. About three-quarters of U.S. experts and two-thirds of Taiwanese experts said ongoing efforts to stabilize U.S.-China ties would not stave such a crisis. ◆ AFP, 2024-1-14: Beijing could apply an economic squeeze on Taiwan, which would "set the terms of interaction for the next four years of cross-strait relations". President-elect Lai's party lose its majority - Any legislation regarding cross-strait relations would be difficult to pass ◆ NBC, 2024-1-9: China has framed the (Taiwan) election as “a choice between war and peace.”; Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, described Taiwan's security situation as “urgent but not immediate.”◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: According to the Economist, China has directly warned the U.S. of the consequences of a Lai victory, raising tensions in the region. In the event of a Lai victory, large-scale demonstrations from the Chinese military and other belligerent moves are expected. The prospect of Taiwan severing ties with a China ... possibly leading him to warm to direct military action. ◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. much of Taiwan's defense budget is locked into capabilities that are neither survivable nor potent.” Taipei is relying on the U.S. Air Force and Navy to ride to the rescue. ◆ Telegraph, 2024-1-5: Super aircraft carrier Fujian is nearly ready for a China-Taiwan war - expect US and allied forces to make sinking Fujian a top priority. ◆ Telegraph, 2024-1-3:The final days of presidential election campaigning will probably result in intensifying clashes over which party can best handle relations with China.◆ CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. ◆ full text
|
media |
China's invasion |
| ◆ GB News, 2023-12-25 | So we should be working with Taiwan right now privately telling them we're not going to fight for you. “We just can't get into a war that could go nuclear, it would be foolish.” |
| ◆ NBC, 2023-12-26 | Xi's private warning on reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal presidential election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan. (ps: no plan to send military troops) |
| ◆ Daily Express, 2023-12-23 | The Taiwan war is coming - and the West will need boots on the ground |
| ◆ New York Post, 2023-12-21 | China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Biden often talks tough, but shies from any action he fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the hands of America's adversaries. |
| ◆ First Post, 2023-12-22 | Japan says that an invasion of Taiwan by China is imminent and that it is preparing for the repercussions |
◆ Politico, 2023-12-23: The guessing game of how likely an intervention — or even invasion — by China is helps explain the nervy tenor of this race (presidential election). ◆ New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Biden often talks tough, but shies from any action he fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the hands of America's adversaries. ◆ NBC Universal, 2023-12-21: War of Words / Experts say China is pushing influence campaign as Taiwan preps for Presidential Election. majority of voters don't favor closer ties to China or to the US, instead, they want to preserve the status quo with Taiwan ◆ Economist, 2023-12-13: There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future. Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world. ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections ◆ Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict... ◆ Defense News, 2023-12-5:The real danger is that Chinese leaders calculate a window exists for them to achieve a fait accompli before the United States has sufficient combat power in the region...Unfortunately, the logistics problem defies simple solution for the US... ◆ Fox News, 2023-12-3: Joint Chiefs chairman says 'we all should be' worried about China possibly invading Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-11-30: Americans now want the U.S. to focus its military efforts in the Middle East over East Asia, a month into the Israel-Hamas war; when it comes to the overall military capability, the United States no longer has outright superiority, but the American people clearly have not internalized that. ◆ The Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-2: Taiwan is about to vote against China. War is coming. The time for doing business with China is finished. ◆ The Market Oracle (UK), 2023-11-28: Taiwan's elections loom just a few weeks away. Continued militarization would undermine past economic success. Taiwan is at its ultimate crossroads. Almost every second Taiwanese would prefer a less confrontational stance and greater focus on domestic economy. ◆ full text
| western media | ◆ Taiwan's presidential election - could reignite U.S.-China tensions |
| Washington Post, 2023-11-28 | Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly. brief |
| Washington Post, 2023-11-28 | Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te. brief |
| CNBC, 2023-11-27 | Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.” The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly. brief |
| Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 | an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief |
| Reuters, 2023-11-28 | China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan" brief |
| SCMP, 2023-11-29 | Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war' |
◆ The Diplomat, 2023-12-1: the KMT has a history of opposition against asymmetric strategies. Most recently, KMT legislators attempted to block new capabilities ranging from the purchase of Harpoons to Javelins and Stingers. Jaw (vice-president candidate) is an avowed opponent of the 12-month conscription, calling it a provocation to Beijing. ◆ WSWS.org, 2023-11-29: low economic growth rates, rising unemployment and social distress will also have a marked impact (on presidential election). Taiwan entered recession in the first quarter of 2023 as GDP contracted by 3.02 percent compared to the same period last year. The economy is expected to grow by just 1.61 percent for the year. Real estate speculation is fuelling a growing housing crisis. While official unemployment figures remain relatively low overall, youth unemployment for those between 20 and 24 is more than 11 percent. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-11-26: Taiwan draws clear US-versus-China battle lines in key election ; an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. There are a substantial amount of voters who want a change ◆ Reuters, 2023-11-24: China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud ◆ Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi: 'peace is all well and good, but at some point we need to move toward resolution more generally' ◆ Newsweek, 2023-11-21: an overwhelming majority (7/10) of people in Taiwan do not believe the United States is trustworthy, according to a new poll released on Monday. Most, however, were convinced by America's commitment to the island's safety. ◆ full text ◆ Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the Dpp's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait ◆ The WEEK, 2023-11-13: Historically, Taiwan has been an "easy target for Chinese spies", It is "not very strict about punishing espionage"...China has "penetrated many parts of the Taiwanese government over the decades", said The New York Times ◆ BBC, 2023-11-9: If Taiwan is not controlling sensitive and secret information very well… You should expect any competent foreign intelligence service to get access to it.
| media | Biden-Xi meeting |
| USA Today, 2023-11-15 | Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution |
| Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot. |
| France 24, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Biden，from Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan |
| New York Times, 2023-11-16 | The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict |
| western media | Taiwan's presidential election |
| Economist, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan's opposition parties unite... could lead to a significant relaxation of the island-state's defiant posture towards China |
| Washington Post, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan's two main opposition parties, both of which have vowed to restart talks with China, announced a joint presidential ticket for January’s election in a deal that could bring a major political upset in the self-ruled island democracy. |
| Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 | in any case, support for the DPP has been fading ahead of January’s presidential elections. But voters in Taiwan tend to be lukewarm toward candidates seen as too pro-China, and the DPP still leads in several polls. |
| Bloomberg, 2023-11-15 | a single opposition bid raises the likelihood of a government in Taipei more willing to accept China’s conditions for direct talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. |
| TIME, 2023-11-15 | A successful opposition alliance — no matter who is running as president — means it’s likely cross-strait tensions will improve |
| Financial Times, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan’s opposition parties join forces for crucial presidential poll Deal sharply increases odds that ruling Democratic Progressive party will lose election; Beijing has denounced Lai as a separatist and framed the presidential race as a choice between war and peace — rhetoric sometimes echoed by the opposition. |
| Reuters, 2023-11-15 | Some opinion polls have shown that if Hou and Ko teamed up, in whatever combination, they would beat Lai 。Tamkang University scholar: The U.S. and China both want stabilised Taiwan Strait relations. Lai may not be the ideal person for this |
◆ BBC, 2023-11-6: in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-29: the United States must also provide credible assurances to Beijing that as long as China refrains from using force against Taiwan, Washington will not support the island's independence nor return to its past defense treaty with Taipei. Assurances like these can help to avoid war. ◆ Economist, 2023-10-26: 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-26: Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says ◆ SCMP, 2023-10-21: Taiwanese defence minister admitted it would be "impossible" for the island's military to block a saturation attack. The inadequate training given to Taiwanese reservists after discharge has been known for some time, drawing criticism from the US, ...Taiwan could also learn from Israel about maintaining a lasting public enthusiasm to fend off the enemy ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence. If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan, it will set a precedent in which Chinese leaders kill and destroy to achieve their goals. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-16: The U.S. has known since no later than 2012——that Chinese surface-to-surface (STS) missiles can destroy U.S. aircraft carriers, or any other military asset that isn't submerged; Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption. A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order. ◆ VOA News, 2023-10-13: Expert says : for Taiwan, the most important thing is whether the intelligence it has gathered can help Taipei prepare for potential military conflicts, Taiwan should also assess whether it can promptly mobilize its forces and whether its forces can react to sudden attacks swiftly... there's a question about whether Taiwan can obtain enough equipment for all of them ◆ Telegraph, 2023-10-13: If China attempts a blockade of Taiwan, Taiwanese forces and their American allies will have to break the blockade – or risk losing the island democracy to mainland...It’s worth noting the United States hasn’t directly intervened in the Chinese blockade of a Philippine outpost ◆ Express (UK), 2023-10-13: A China-Taiwan war could break out unless the war in Israel is put to an end ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-10-12: Taiwan is closely watching the Hamas-Israel war for lessons as it faces intimidation from China ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications ◆ AP, 2023-10-3: a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity. ◆ Reuters, 2023-9-28: Taiwan says" it's not likely for them (China) to do anything major to threaten Taiwan or anything so visible that the Taiwanese people understand that they are trying to intervene in our election" ◆ Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion, or should move towards building ties with China. The opposition Kuomintang has called the vote a choice between “war and peace”, implying that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s hostility towards China will provoke it to attack. China...narratives that portray America, not China, as the island's biggest threat. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-9-26: Americans are increasingly concerned over tensions between China and Taiwan, with more than 80% reporting the problem is "somewhat" or "very serious" for the U.S. ◆ full text
|
◆ Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing |
|
|
♦ CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”. ♦ Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.". |
♦ BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore Drew Thompson: the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China... The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role... ♦ NewsWeek, 2023-9-29: A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in. Policy experts in the U.S. have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so。 ♦ The Diplomat, 2023-9-30: The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects. |
◆ The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China has plans to mobilize hundreds or thousands of civilian merchant ships, fishing boats, Coast Guard vessels, and anything else capable of ferrying infantry units across the South China Sea, according to a paper by Lonnie Henley,...In such volumes it would be impossible for even an advanced military to defeat them all ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-9-21: China is building a powerful military to beat America in a war over Taiwan; China is readying for war today. China's military has practiced deploying Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers ◆ full text
|
◆
Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues |
|
| Advantages | including geography and climate. |
| Challenges |
(1)
the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a
range of military campaigns against Taiwan. (2) Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. At a societal level, it is not clear what costs — in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives — Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear. |
◆ The Hill, 2023-9-19: The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan and the rules-based international order ◆ 1945, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon); China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces ◆ Military, 2023-9-13: We lost the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing our frailties, Xi will persist in pressuring Taiwan to dissolve from within, while employing military provocations to test America's martial resolve ... By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan ◆ Daily Express, 2023-9-9: China has reached the "height of its power" which may prompt Beijing to launch an invasion of Taiwan, former National Security Advisor John Bolton exclusively told Daily Express US; the United States was not ready ... - something which Beijing would see as an “opportunity”◆ American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029. Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux. ◆ AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China. Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation. Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island. No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-30: Ramaswamy says after America’s rapid semiconductor renaissance, Taiwan can fend for itself. I am not going to send our sons and daughters to die over that conflict. ◆ Daily Express, 2023-8-27: China sparks major war fears as dozens of aircraft and vessels either crossed the median line of the sensitive Taiwan Strait or breached Taiwan's air defence identification zone in a major escalation. Former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Matt Shoemaker told Daily Express US the chances new military packages will repel an invasion are low. ◆ The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-8-22: China boasts record-high military recruitment, if military aid (Taiwan war) is needed, America's sagging recruitment numbers could be a problem. ◆ full text
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Taiwan presidency - Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition) |
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| ◆ BBC, 2023-8-29 | Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate. |
| ◆ Economist, 2023-8-29 | The opposition would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect. |
| ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-28 | Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path. |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25 | analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. |
| ◆ Reuters, 2023-8-28 |
Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of office. |
| ◆ AP, The Hill, 2023-8-28 | Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency. He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote,“I will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”. He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote |
◆ Daily Express, 2023-8-20: Taiwan under threat as China sends fighter jets and warships with nations on brink of war ◆ The Conversation, 2023-8-16: According to some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price (Ukraine is paying a heavy price in terms of lost lives and a shattered economy) to preserve its political autonomy.◆ New York Times, news brief 2023-8-14: A Taiwanese presidential contender (Lai Ching-te) walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. ◆ Daily Mail, 2023-8-18: China rehearses invasion of Taiwan with troops storming 'sea defences' in chilling wargames - while Beijing and Russia stage joint naval exercises in the Pacific. the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: For the most part, Taiwanese people seem to be at ease with their Chinese heritage. In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. ◆ The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action ◆ Washington Post, 2023-7-29: U.S. to provide up to $345 million in military aid to Taiwan; a defense analyst in Taiwan was skeptical of the aid package and pointed to “serious delays in recent years in the delivery of numerous U.S. arms sales” to Taiwan. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-7-29: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines have said they don't see an effort by China to seize Taiwan by force as imminent ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-7-24: China and Russia train together to sink US submarines. the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-23: Washington is reducing some long-term deployments in the Indo-Pacific,...the US's decision to help Ukraine only with weapons and the wavering of some European countries about support for Kyiv do not bode well for Taiwan ◆ Daily Express, 2023-7-23: Japan says: If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan...the government would need to first secure the support of the population before intervening. ◆ full text
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◆
Fox News, 2023-7-28
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♦
a critical question – is Taiwan
committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is
no. ♦ perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." ♦ Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense... foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late Rebekah Koffler |
◆ BBC, 2023-7-21: Much of the #MeToo focus is still on sexual harassment, and "large-scale exposure" of sexual assault is yet to happen, that can only happen with more resources legal and counselling support from the state. The government must extend the statute of limitations for prosecuting sexual harassment cases, which is currently six months. ◆ ResponsibleStatecraft.org, 2023-7-17: War with China over Taiwan? Don't expect US allies (Japan, Australia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) to join ◆ Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17: the US will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will enable Australia to conduct operations such as anti-submarine warfare against China's subsurface fleet. Similarly, Japan will acquire counterstrike capabilities, which will include purchasing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These would allow Japan to target China's missile launchers and command-and-control sites that would be key to an invasion of Taiwan. But there is uncertainty over not just the kind of support allies would provide, but over whether they would provide any at all. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws. The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”◆ West Point, 2023-7-11: <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan> implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war, and highlights a fundamental component of warfare that applies to an attempted Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan—that the war will be won or lost by land forces on the ground. ◆ NEWS Australia, 2023-7-12: Taiwan considers reviving nuclear power plants due to the threat of China ◆ full text
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National Interest, 2023-7-16 - Willing to fight ? |
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| China | Taiwan |
| a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ... another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites. | Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. |
◆ Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: Taiwan's dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield" ◆ le Monde, 2023-7-5: many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: Taiwan is far from ready, the professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern ◆ NPR, 2023-7-3: More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation. ◆ ResponsibleStateCraft.org, 2023-7-3: Taiwan's total trade increased to $907 billion in 2022 from $508.4 billion in 2016. While 39 percent of Taiwanese exports went to China and Hong Kong last year ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29: if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. ◆ National Interest, 2023-6-29: it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward... ◆ TIME, 2023-6-26: Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-27: Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan’s military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. it could require potentially several months – for the US to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to ... fight a major contingency in East Asia. ◆ NPR.org, 2023-6-22: the Council on Foreign Relations says that the U.S. and China are 'drifting toward a war' over Taiwan. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-22: Can sanctions threat deter china from invading Taiwan? The answer, according to a new study, is a potential "yes" - but with big caveats ◆ full text
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Bulgari apologizes ── |
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| ♣ CNN, 2023-7-12 | Bulgari has apologized for listing Taiwan and China separately on some of its websites, after Chinese social media users accused ...People's Daily meanwhile questioned why the brand had not published similar statements to its English-language accounts on Twitter and Instagram.。 In 2019, Versace apologized implying Taiwan's independence... aol.com/bulgari-apologizes-taiwan-listing-amid-064439595.html |
◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-19: "The Biden Administration is acting needy and desperate" ,"They want to talk more than China does, and China knows it. So they are making us grovel. " ◆ BBC, Independent, 2023-6-20: the drugging of preschool children in Taiwan have sparked widespread alarm on the island. Some teachers at the kindergarten gave children phenobarbital to “make them more compliant”. A rally demanded transparency from the government.◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-17: Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army ◆ SCMP, 2023-6-17: Washington believes Beijing is leaning towards the stick rather than the carrot because of its increasingly tough stance, analysts warn ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-6-15: US Presses Taiwan Opposition Candidate Over China Policies; Washington will want to be assured that KMT's Hou has “a clear stance on China and international policy..." ◆ National Interest, 2023-6-15: If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States ◆ full text
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#MeToo in Taiwan
◆ The
Guardian, 2023-6-8:
The
belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms
that still govern Taiwanese society.
while these accusations had played out in the court of public
opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo
AmyHawk |
◆ Taipei Times, 2023-6-12: Taiwanese government actively courts Chinese tourists by the hundred thousand, immigration authorities hand out insult after insult to people whose skins are a bit too brown... besides, over 1,000 nurses, have come from Hong Kong and are unable to obtain residency to work ◆ Economist, 2023-5-31: Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. ◆Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1: Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out? ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-24: Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-22: over 90% of the world's semiconductors are made in the place many US officials think could be the site of the next global conflict: Taiwan. ◆ Fortune, 2023-5-21: Warren Buffett told Japan's Nikkei that the threat of war was a “consideration” in dumping the bulk of the stake in TSMC. Musk told the Financial Times that a conflict over Taiwan is inevitable. His comments did not go over well in Taiwan ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ full text
| ◆ Reuters, 2023-5-20 | "war is not an option", Taiwan president says |
| ◆Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1 | Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out? |
| ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-5-19 | The top-line fact in the weapons to Ukraine or Taiwan debate / Taiwan's defense spending remains absurdly inadequate. It's also feasible that Taiwan may elect a new government in 2024 that lacks sufficient resolve to fight China. In contrast, Ukraine has shown not just the resolve to fight against overwhelming odds, but the spirit to win. |
◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17: As China looms over Taiwan's Presidential race, the opposition picks a moderate Hou Yu-ih, trying to appeal to voters wary of Beijing ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-11: Taiwan's world-dominating microchip sector was built by its strategic asset, TSMC's skilled employees. But a demographic crisis, demanding work culture and flagging interest threaten its lead ◆ DW (Germany), 2023-5-12: While Taiwan has historically limited its missile forces to defensive assets, CSIS indicated the island has started to develop missiles designed for strike missions. ◆ Washington Times, 2023-5-9: Taipei unnerved by investor fears, apocalyptic rhetoric, Taiwanese officials are trying to tone down alarmist comments made by U.S. investment gurus and policymakers about the risks of a clash with China, "the fearmongering talk coming out of Washington isn't helping" ◆ Business Insider, 2023-5-3: In first-of-its-kind drill, US Army special operators train to defend Taiwan against Chinese attack, while the "ultimate backstop" remains America's nuclear capabilities, according to the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy ◆ Daily Express, UK, 2023-5-3: WW3 fears as Taiwan issues a threatening statement about how it intends to handle imminent China invasion ◆ CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military ◆ The Register, 2023-4-22: Taiwan asks US if it could chill out on the anti-China rhetoric "We're trying to run a chip business here" ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-15: Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens ◆ Nikkei Asia, 2023-4-7: Taiwan's choice: peace or war, ex-president says after China trip ◆ FoxNews, 2023-4-6: Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid ◆ The Guardian, 2023-3-28: (ex-president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of president Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington ◆ USNI, 2023-3-21: U.S. Needs Air Superiority, Ship-Killing Weapons to Defend Taiwan, Pacific Air Forces Commander Says... he doesn’t think China wants to engage in this fight. ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: An invasion would almost certainly begin with massive missile and rocket strikes on Taiwan. These would quickly destroy much of Taiwan’s navy, air force and air defences. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks ◆ FoxNews, 2023-3-7: Why does the U.S. keep on professing the maintenance of regional peace and stability while covertly formulating a plan for the destruction of Taiwan?" Chinese foreign minister Qin asked. ◆ FoxNews, 2023-3-7: House China committee chair says Xi ‘deadly serious’ about invading Taiwan ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan has not made up its mind how or even whether to defend itself...yet numb to China's threat. ◆ Foreign Policy, 2023-3-2: Should China launch an all-out invasion, however, Taiwan would likely succumb within a few days once its air force of just 470 combat aircraft was overwhelmed... ◆ USNI, 2023-3-2: Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ... ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-27: the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods ◆ Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief: Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan ◆ WSJ, Fox News, 2023-2-23: The U.S. is preparing to send 100 to 200 troops to Taiwan for training amid rising tensions with China; The Wall Street Journal described the planned troop increase in the coming months as the largest deployment of American forces in Taiwan in decades. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-2-23: Taiwan views Russia's war in Ukraine as a fate that could await it if it doesn't take the proper steps needed to defend its democratic island nation from a potential Chinese invasion.◆ TIME, 2023-2-23: Winning the tech war with China depended entirely upon persuading U.S. allies—particularly Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Japan—to follow the U.S. lead and adopt similar export control regulations ◆ Aljazeera, 2023-2-23: CIA Director William Burns recently said although Xi was likely “unsettled” by Russia’s failures in Ukraine, he had still told China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-22: Our best chance of preventing an invasion of Taiwan, and of essentially preventing World War III, is to put actual hard power on Taiwan ◆ Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan (CBS 2023-2-19: China considering providing "lethal support" to aid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Blinken says) ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-2-12: the unpredictable nature of ADIZ violations is intended to keep the status quo around Taiwan unstable and ambiguous in order to facilitate strategic surprise ◆ CNN, 2023-2-9: More US firms in Taiwan say they're seeing 'significant disruption' due to rising tension with China - elevated concern from global headquarters, increased shipping, insurance or financial costs, as well as staff anxiety ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly. China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. ◆ Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan. "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade".◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26: Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence ; If Lai Ching-te (a staunch proponent of the island's independence) does win, Beijing could move quickly to invade. ◆ The Hill, 2023-1-23: the U.S. defense industrial base is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war...How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario? ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy" ◆ WSJ, 2023-1-23: Taiwan is much more important (than Ukraine) to our security and prosperity. Any tanks we can spare should go to Taipei. ◆ New York Times, 2023-1-21: Glaser warns that symbolic victories may not be worth the cost of provoking China ... "But the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism" said Dan Blumenthal ◆ USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia ◆ AFP, 2023-1-21: Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2023-1-20: In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict ◆ WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. ◆ Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips 2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19: China's "compounding troubles" — the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. ◆ New York Post, 2023-1-14: the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. ◆The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general ◆ TIME, 2023-1-7: the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control. ◆Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN, 2023-1-9: CSIS War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries ◆ full text
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Biden's State of the Union speech - Taiwan war |
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| The Hill, 2023-2-9 | Biden's State of the Union speech on Feb. 7 buried these two clear and present dangers simultaneously confronting national security. When is the Biden administration going to recognize that we are essentially in the equivalent of WWIII? |
| Washington Examiner, 2023-2-1 | State of Our Union: Biden's China policy tolerates excessive risks The Biden administration is playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war. |
| The Hill, 2023-2-14 | In his first State of the Union address in March 2022, President Biden, proclaimed, “In the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment";... if China invaded Taiwan, would the international order really collapse? Would authoritarianism really spread throughout the globe? Is it in the U.S. interest to come to Taiwan’s defense? Are we prepared to send Americans into harm's way? |
◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10: Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island. ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-9: the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game ◆ Asia Nikkei, 2023-1-6: reserves, supposedly 2 million strong, are a paper force, with "no way whatsoever" to reinforce existing units in combat ◆ The American SPECTATOR, 2023-1-5: coming crisis over Taiwan is now popularly treated as a foregone conclusion...What is more likely is that China will wait a while longer, probably until the early 2030s. ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-2: Economics, often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride (questions of sovereignty and the hyper-sensitivities of China's leadership) ◆ The Hill, 2023-1-3: America's ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan gets more dangerous by the day ◆ Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command ◆ The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to erupt，Taiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints
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General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025? The Hill, 2023-2-2, Fox News, 2023-2-4, USA Today, 2023-2-3 |
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| US generals, officials, experts, law-makers | China invade Taiwan by ? |
| CIA Director William Burns | Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027 |
| Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command | by 2027 |
| Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Jan. 2023) | China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by 2027 |
| Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday (Oct., 2022) | Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or a potentially a 2023 window |
| Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Oct., 2022) | on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought. |
| U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner (July, 2022) | “only a matter of time” |
| Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command | 2025 |
| Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the Center for a New American Security, | before 2027, a crisis or incident that could spiral out of control |
| House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul | agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.” |
| Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) | 2025 |
| House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) | the 2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but “highly unlikely,” |
| Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey | 2025 , a“bad judgment” |
| Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Nov. 2022) | it will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan. |
| news.yahoo.com/general-memo-spurs-debate-could-110000282.html | |
◆ The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion ◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people ◆ Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict. ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024 ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28: Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still ◆ New York Times, 2022-12-26: With Record Military Incursions, China Warns Taiwan and U.S. ; 71 military aircraft buzzed the airspace near Taiwan ◆ Politico, 2022-12-27: The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won’t even consider invading Taiwan. Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late ◆ Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent. if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆ War on the Rocks,2022-12-19: Biden's National Security Strategy of October 2022 tilted toward strategic ambiguity. ◆ CNN , 2022-12-17: The population pool is decreasing, so Taiwan is actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs ◆ National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn't Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential ◆ 1945, 2022-12-12: the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2022-12-4 : A RAND Corporation study predicted that a yearlong war would cut the U.S.'s gross domestic product by 5 to 10 percent — but it would slash China's by 25 to 35 percent. ◆ Economist, 2022-11-29: many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there. ◆ full text
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NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China |
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| WSJ, 2022-12-27 | a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529 |
| PBS, AP, 2022-12-27 | The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however, only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year |
| CNN, 2022-12-27 | Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html |
| Washington Post, 12-27 | It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/ |
| Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28 |
The change is said to have come at the request of the United States mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c |
| GT (China), 2022-12-27 | "a deplorable decision" made under US pressure / the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml 12-27 |
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High-tech. persecutions in Taiwan ( privacy is no longer sacrosanct ) |
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★
surveillance
in Europe ★ surveillance in the U.S. Freedom House (2019) : At the very least, social media surveillance must come under greater oversight. The use of such programs must be transparent... The survival of democracy requires vibrant public spaces, both offline and online, where individuals can... without fear of constant surveillance. Washington DC based Epic.org: The unchecked expansion of surveillance systems is one of the greatest threats to privacy and civil liberties. Abuses of surveillance technology are not only unjust, they're dangerous. The concerns in the US or Europe are basically about people’s emails, online chats, internet browsing histories, and information about social media activity or face analysis in public spaces, etc As for mind control, and electromagnetic attacks the civilians in Taiwan, those are not only violation of Privacy Act (Taiwan does not have a Privacy Act ), but also committing serious crimes.
However,
Taiwan has not rebutted its "sworm enemy's" allegation for more than half years, which is nothing other than giving a tacit consent to it. Till now, Taiwan Intel. still refuse to declassify and open persecution files of 50 years ago, are they willing to open the public the crimes they committed in recent years (if any) ?
★
Oversight
★
Can Taiwan make it ?
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◆ Reuters, 2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.◆ Bloomberg, 2022-11-26: Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections ◆ DW (Germany), 2022-11-26: China said the result shows that "mainstream public opinion in the island is for peace, stability and a good life ◆Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23: ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023? Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas ◆ Fortune, 2022-11-19: U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry ◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-22: In Taiwan, a Shaky Status Quo Prevails; The people here have little desire either to yield to Beijing or to provoke a war ◆ Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely ◆ CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14: For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan ...The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China's goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system ◆ full text
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Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan? |
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| New York Times, 2022-12-6 | In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Financial Times, 2022-12-12 | TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CNN, 2022-12-9 | Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’ / TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US. edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 | some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly. finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TIME, 2022-10-5 | Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation. time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New York Times, 2022-9-9 | Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New York Times, 2022-8-29 | Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it. Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| National Interest, 2022-5-15 | Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| VOA News, 2021-5-10 | Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AIT (US), 2021-5-22 | Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fox News, 2022-8-26 | Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Atlantic, 2022-10-3 | The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of semiconductor components. Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution. theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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◆ CNN, 2022-11-13: Biden's repeated statements on the American obligation to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion have done little to lower the temperature.◆Washington Post, 2022-11-13: Congress seeks to arm Taiwan quickly before the bullets start flying Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition ◆ NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Taiwan is the top issue. Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war ◆ Washington Post, 2022-11-10: Beijing might also resort to force to stem what it sees ... a growing Taiwan-centric identity — as well as deepening U.S.-Taiwan security ties ◆ DW (Germany), 2022-11-8: Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline on Taiwan "reunification" ◆Washington Times, 2022-11-8: It would take at least a decade to design and build new types of ships and aircraft to counter China's threats... US Forces in the Indo-Pacific may not be able to defend Taiwan successfully today ◆ Newsweek, 2022-11-8: Beijing's forces have "a lot of work to do" before attempting what would be one of the most difficult military campaigns in modern history ◆ National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan ◆ USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-11-7: Because Taiwan is an island, it will be difficult to resupply in the event of hostilities; Taiwan needs support now ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy ◆ FoxNews, Reuters, Hill,Vice, 2022-10-31: US to Put Nuclear-Capable B52s in Australia as Taiwan Invasion Fears Grow ◆ Fortune, 2022-10-30: China's Xi Jinping now has 'unlimited power' and could use Taiwan as a distraction from 'internal problems' ◆ full text
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★ TaiwanPlus, 2023-3-6: A poll |
